Benchmarks

The results behind each suggestion, by bookmaker and league.

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Which direction has worked in each cell?

Benchmarks from 15 August 2026 · all collected odds formats. Compare normal and reversed one-unit returns for each bookmaker, market and league.

Historical evidence

86Cells with a direction

43Cells still gathering evidence

5Earlier matches required

129Cells in this selection

BookmakerLeagueStatisticOriginal model directionScopeShow cellsSort by

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1–40 of 86 cellsOne unit per earlier signal · returns rounded to two decimals

Bookmaker / league	Original model signal	Earlier matches	Normal	Reversed	Selected direction
Betfair ExchangeMLS	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 167 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	167	−21.88u-13.1% ROI	−2.86u-1.7% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeLiga Profesional de Fútbol	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 109 reconstructed · 3 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	112	−27.91u-24.9% ROI	−3.78u-3.4% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeMLS	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 106 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	106	−106.00u-100.0% ROI	+2.00u1.9% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeUEFA Nations League	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 104 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	104	−104.00u-100.0% ROI	+1.39u1.3% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeUEFA Nations League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 104 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	104	+74.60u71.7% ROI	−7.53u-7.2% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeChampionship	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 102 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	102	−41.10u-40.3% ROI	+4.72u4.6% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeChampionship	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 87 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	87	−75.53u-86.8% ROI	+0.82u0.9% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeLaLiga 2	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 84 reconstructed · 1 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	85	−47.00u-55.3% ROI	+1.07u1.3% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeLiga Profesional de Fútbol	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 81 reconstructed · 3 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	84	−49.62u-59.1% ROI	+6.15u7.3% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeLaLiga 2	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 79 reconstructed · 1 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	80	−69.00u-86.3% ROI	+0.71u0.9% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeBrasileirão Série A	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 78 reconstructed · 1 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	79	−39.00u-49.4% ROI	−1.64u-2.1% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeBrasileirão Série A	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 70 reconstructed · 1 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	71	−21.43u-30.2% ROI	+2.58u3.6% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeBrasileirão Série B	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 66 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	66	−41.33u-62.6% ROI	−0.67u-1.0% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeLaLiga	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 65 reconstructed · 1 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	66	−11.50u-17.4% ROI	−0.89u-1.3% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeLaLiga	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 65 reconstructed · 1 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	66	+22.55u34.2% ROI	−3.56u-5.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeEkstraklasa	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 64 reconstructed · 1 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	65	−18.75u-28.8% ROI	+2.25u3.5% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeCONCACAF Nations League	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 63 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	63	+88.15u139.9% ROI	−3.06u-4.9% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeCONCACAF Nations League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 63 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	63	−28.50u-45.2% ROI	+1.26u2.0% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeEredivisie	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 63 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	63	−17.50u-27.8% ROI	+2.26u3.6% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangePremier League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 62 reconstructed · 1 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	63	+6.14u9.7% ROI	−0.93u-1.5% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeTrendyol Süper Lig	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 58 reconstructed · 1 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	59	+18.10u30.7% ROI	−1.76u-3.0% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
Betfair Exchange2. Bundesliga	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 58 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	58	+17.70u30.5% ROI	−1.93u-3.3% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeBrasileirão Série B	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 58 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	58	−40.40u-69.7% ROI	+5.32u9.2% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeSerie A	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 54 reconstructed · 2 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	56	−16.00u-28.6% ROI	−0.05u-0.1% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeSerie A	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 54 reconstructed · 2 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	56	−25.50u-45.5% ROI	+2.55u4.6% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeSerie B	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 56 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	56	−8.20u-14.6% ROI	+1.05u1.9% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeLigue 2	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 53 reconstructed · 1 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	54	−28.51u-52.8% ROI	+2.82u5.2% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeSerie B	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 54 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	54	−32.93u-61.0% ROI	−2.67u-4.9% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeLiga MX, Apertura	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 53 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	53	−37.50u-70.8% ROI	+3.74u7.1% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangePremier League	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 49 reconstructed · 1 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	50	+10.00u20.0% ROI	−0.10u-0.2% ROI	Normal → OverHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeBundesliga	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 48 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	48	+79.40u165.4% ROI	−1.65u-3.4% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeLigue 1	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 47 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	47	+4.70u10.0% ROI	−1.35u-2.9% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeRomanian Super Liga	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 45 reconstructed · 2 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	47	−29.50u-62.8% ROI	+4.54u9.7% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeTrendyol Süper Lig	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 45 reconstructed · 1 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	46	+14.05u30.5% ROI	−3.53u-7.7% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeUEFA Europa League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 46 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	46	−13.48u-29.3% ROI	−2.25u-4.9% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeAfrica Cup of Nations Qual.	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 45 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	45	−43.50u-96.7% ROI	+0.62u1.4% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeAfrica Cup of Nations Qual.	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 45 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	45	−34.00u-75.6% ROI	+3.29u7.3% ROI	Reverse → OverHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeCzech First League	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 45 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	45	+5.75u12.8% ROI	−0.59u-1.3% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeInternational Friendly Games	Goals · UnderMatch total Evidence 45 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	45	+2.00u4.4% ROI	−0.07u-0.2% ROI	Normal → UnderHigher earlier return
Betfair ExchangeBundesliga	Goals · OverMatch total Evidence 44 reconstructed · 0 recorded total_goals · thestatsapi	44	−44.00u-100.0% ROI	+0.91u2.1% ROI	Reverse → UnderHigher earlier return

How to read this evidence

A cell needs 5 distinct earlier matches. Higher return selects normal or reversed, including the smaller loss. This qualifies a direction for monitoring; lineup, contract and current-edge checks follow.

Reconstructed history is labelled separately from genuinely recorded pre-match signals. Published prediction returns have their own record. VIP and Free are assigned after confirmation.

Release 20261019-live-v4 · measured 19/10/2026, 23:08:53