Predictions
Ongoing probability research with virtual stakes and bankrolls. Compare model and bookmaker probabilities.
4 picks shown with Betfair Exchange prices. Recorded performance covers all suggestions for the selected tier and markets.
Board
Matches
AbhavAl-KholoodSaudi Pro League1 pick· 0 active
- Model chance at recommendation
- 52.0%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.93
- Expected value at recommendation
- +1.3%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 52.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.93. Expected value at recommendation: +1.3%.
At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 62 settled picksand +3.3% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 2.5
Model chance52.0%EV+1.3%No closing quote capturedAt recommendation1.95Closing odds—7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetfair ExchangeClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.0425 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetliveClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.8511 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonCrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.8511 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonKambiClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.856 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonLiderbetClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.8511 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonPaddy PowerClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.916 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonPinnacleClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.993 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonSuperbetClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.9714 bookmaker lines available.
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Recommendation record
Recorded 16 Oct, 20:18: under 2.5 at 1.95 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 00:49. The original pick remains in the results.
Al-HilalvAl-HazemSaudi Pro League1 won / 0 lost · +1.00u · 1 pick
- Model chance at recommendation
- 51.6%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.94
- Expected value at recommendation
- +3.2%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 51.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.94. Expected value at recommendation: +3.2%.
At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 61 settled picksand +1.5% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
Model chance51.6%EV+3.2%No closing quote capturedAt recommendation2.00Closing odds—8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetfair ExchangeClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.4233 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.1512 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonCrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.1512 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonKambiClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.257 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonLiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.1513 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonPaddy PowerClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.255 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonSuperbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.3215 bookmaker lines available.
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Recommendation record
Recorded 16 Oct, 18:50: under 3.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 00:50. The original pick remains in the results.
Celta Vigo BvCD TenerifeLaLiga 20 won / 1 lost · −1.00u · 1 pick
- Model chance at recommendation
- 51.8%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.94
- Expected value at recommendation
- +7.2%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 51.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.94. Expected value at recommendation: +7.2%.
At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 41 settled picksand +5.6% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 2.5
Model chance51.8%EV+7.2%No closing quote capturedAt recommendation2.07Closing odds—14 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetfair ExchangeClosing estimateover 2.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.1825 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetliveClosing estimateover 2.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.9511 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonCrocobetClosing estimateover 2.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.9511 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonKambiClosing estimateover 2.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.054 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonLiderbetClosing estimateover 2.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.9014 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonPaddy PowerClosing estimateover 2.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.106 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonPinnacleClosing estimateover 2.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.133 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Recommendation record
Recorded 15 Oct, 15:09: over 2.5 at 2.07 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Stopped being recommended 15 Oct, 15:16. The original pick remains in the results.
SarmientovBarracas CentralLiga Profesional de Fútbol1 pick· 0 active
- Decision chance (market + earlier cell bias)
- 92.3%
- Count model chance
- 72.9%
- Break-even odds
- 1.08
- Expected value at recommendation
- +1.5%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 92.3% · Break-even odds 1.08. Expected value at recommendation: +1.5%.
At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 16 settled picksand +10.3% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 0.5
Model chance92.3%EV+1.5%No closing quote capturedAt recommendation1.10Closing odds—6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetMGM UKClosing estimateover 0.5
Model chance72.9%EV-21.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.081 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetfair ExchangeClosing estimateover 0.5
Model chance72.9%EV-17.6%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.1322 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonBetliveClosing estimateover 0.5
Model chance72.9%EV-21.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.0811 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonCrocobetClosing estimateover 0.5
Model chance72.9%EV-21.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.0811 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonKambiClosing estimateover 0.5
Model chance72.9%EV-19.8%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.106 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonLiderbetClosing estimateover 0.5
Model chance72.9%EV-21.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.0813 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonPaddy PowerClosing estimateover 0.5
Model chance72.9%EV-21.9%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.075 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparisonSuperbetClosing estimateover 0.5
Model chance72.9%EV-19.8%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.1014 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Recommendation record
Recorded 19 Oct, 15:23: over 0.5 at 1.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Selected day
Mon, 19 Oct 2026
All dates
Overall results
One unit per pick. Includes historical estimates at reference odds (1,974 settled). Display only; recorded performance and benchmarks exclude estimates. Recorded results: 28 Sept 2026 – 19 Oct 2026.
How to read this board
A simulated selection is one match, statistic, scope and direction. Bookmaker prices are alternatives for comparison, not additional stakes.
Results use one virtual unit per recorded selection at its recorded line and odds. The comparison bookmaker is labelled on each selection. These are simulated returns; no real money is wagered or won.
Earlier matches without a saved pre-match recommendation are labelled Historical estimate. They remain visible in the calendar and are excluded from daily and overall results.
Free and VIP use the same process. Their labels reflect the benchmark rules; one day's return cannot determine which will perform better.
Telegram reads these same recommendations and applies your tier, bookmaker preferences and delivery time. A message does not create an additional pick.