Predictions

Ongoing probability research with virtual stakes and bankrolls. Compare model and bookmaker probabilities.

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

PredictionsPredictions MonitoringMonitoring Player propsProps FantasyFantasy BenchmarksBenchmarks

0Free available0VIP available6Recorded Free1Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

7 picks shown with Bet365 prices. Recorded performance covers all suggestions for the selected tier and markets.

Board

Matches

5 matches

11:00

Jordanv

VenezuelaInternational Friendly Games1 pick· 0 available

Corners · Jordan total

Open match →FreePrevious modelAwaiting result

Awaiting a verified result for this recorded pick.

over 4.5

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.005 Oct, 16:32

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.97
Expected value at recommendation: +1.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.97. Expected value at recommendation: +1.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.0%EV+1.9%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.6%EV+0.6%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance44.0%EV-18.6%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.97
No saved recommendation
Model chance44.0%EV-13.3%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance44.0%EV-25.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.88
No saved recommendation
Model chance44.0%EV-17.2%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 5 Oct, 16:32: over 4.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 6 Oct, 09:32. The original pick remains in the results.

12:45

Scotlandv

SloveniaUEFA Nations League1 won / 2 lost · −0.98u · 3 picks

Corners · Slovenia total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 3.5Actual: 4−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.906 Oct, 11:45

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Paddy PowerOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 3.5
At recommendation1.83
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 3.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.4%EV+6.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.4%EV+1.4%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.4%EV+7.5%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.4%EV+7.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.4%EV+1.4%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 6 Oct, 11:45: under 3.5 at 1.90 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots · Scotland total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 14.5Actual: 12+1.02u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.026 Oct, 11:45

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365Original model estimate unavailableunder 14.5
At recommendation1.83
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
CrocobetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 14.5
At recommendation1.65
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 14.5
At recommendation1.60
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 14.5
At recommendation2.02
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.48
No saved recommendation
Model chance71.5%EV+5.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 6 Oct, 11:45: under 14.5 at 2.02 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots on target · Scotland total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 6−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.056 Oct, 11:45

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 4.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 4.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 4.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 4.5
At recommendation1.87
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance66.9%EV+22.6%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.68
No saved recommendation
Model chance66.9%EV+12.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 6 Oct, 11:45: under 4.5 at 2.05 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

12:45

Croatiav

SpainUEFA Nations League0 won / 1 lost · −1.00u · 1 pick

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 27.5Actual: 20−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.154 Oct, 13:04

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 27.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 27.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance38.0%EV-31.6%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 27.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance38.0%EV-29.7%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 27.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance38.0%EV-31.6%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 27.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance38.0%EV-31.6%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 27.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance38.0%EV-31.6%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 13:04: over 27.5 at 2.15 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

17:45

Colombiav

PeruInternational Friendly Games0 won / 1 lost · −1.00u · 1 pick

Corners · Peru total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 2.5Actual: 0−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.876 Oct, 16:45

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 2.5
At recommendation1.87
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.61
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.8%EV-3.5%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.8%EV-1.4%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.8%EV-4.4%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.8%EV-4.4%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.59
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.8%EV-5.0%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 6 Oct, 16:45: over 2.5 at 1.87 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

18:00

USAv

CanadaInternational Friendly Games0 won / 1 lost · −1.00u · 1 pick

Corners · Canada total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 8−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.886 Oct, 17:20

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 4.5
At recommendation1.88
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance36.9%EV-36.4%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance36.9%EV-31.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance36.9%EV-33.7%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance36.9%EV-33.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 6 Oct, 17:20: under 4.5 at 1.88 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Selected day

Tue, 6 Oct 2026

Recorded results · all bookmaker options

Return−5.5%ROI · 105 units staked

Profit−5.75units

W / L43 / 62picks

Avg odds2.51settled picks

Recorded picks1083 awaiting result

All dates

Overall results

5,457 settled picks

One unit per pick. Includes historical estimates at reference odds (1,895 settled). Display only; recorded performance and benchmarks exclude estimates. Recorded results: 28 Sept 2026 – 20 Oct 2026.

ROI+2.7%

Profit+144.96 u

W / L2,704 / 2,753

Avg odds2.13

How to read this board

A simulated selection is one match, statistic, scope and direction. Bookmaker prices are alternatives for comparison, not additional stakes.

Results use one virtual unit per recorded selection at its recorded line and odds. The comparison bookmaker is labelled on each selection. These are simulated returns; no real money is wagered or won.

Earlier matches without a saved pre-match recommendation are labelled Historical estimate. They remain visible in the calendar and are excluded from daily and overall results.

Free and VIP use the same process. Their labels reflect the benchmark rules; one day's return cannot determine which will perform better.

Telegram reads these same recommendations and applies your tier, bookmaker preferences and delivery time. A message does not create an additional pick.

Predictions

Matches

Corners · Jordan total

Corners · Slovenia total

Shots · Scotland total

Shots on target · Scotland total

Shots · match total

Corners · Peru total

Corners · Canada total

Tue, 6 Oct 2026

Overall results

On this page

This category

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