Wales vs Denmark 0-1 — UEFA Nations League

UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League 26/27

Wales

0–1

HT 0–0

Denmark

Sun 4 Oct·12:45·Matchday 4·Cardiff City Stadium·Denmark won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

3Corners3
3Cards1
6Shots13
1Shots on target4
11Fouls9
18Throw-ins14
0Offsides3
12Goal kicks5
3Saves1
14Tackles9
7Interceptions9
10Dribbles5

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

12:45

Walesv

DenmarkUEFA Nations League5 won / 3 lost · +3.00u · 8 picks

Cards · Denmark total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 1.5Actual: 1−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.904 Oct, 11:49

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveOriginal model estimate unavailableover 1.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetOriginal model estimate unavailableover 1.5
At recommendation1.80
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 1.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.1%EV+4.0%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.1%EV-0.9%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:49: over 1.5 at 1.90 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Fouls · Wales total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 12.5Actual: 11+1.25u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.254 Oct, 11:49

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 12.5
At recommendation2.25
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 12.5
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 12.5
At recommendation2.25
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:49: under 12.5 at 2.25 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Goal kicks · Denmark total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 6.5Actual: 5−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.054 Oct, 11:49

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveOriginal model estimate unavailableover 6.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetOriginal model estimate unavailableover 6.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetOriginal model estimate unavailableover 6.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 6.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:49: over 6.5 at 2.05 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Offsides · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 3.5Actual: 3+1.30u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.304 Oct, 11:49

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 3.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 3.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Liderbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 3.5
At recommendation2.30
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:49: under 3.5 at 2.30 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Offsides · Denmark total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 1.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation3.054 Oct, 11:49

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 1.5
At recommendation2.75
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 1.5
At recommendation2.75
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Liderbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 1.5
At recommendation3.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:49: under 1.5 at 3.05 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots · Wales total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 10.5Actual: 6+1.20u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.204 Oct, 11:49

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 10.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Crocobetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 10.5
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.5%EV+13.6%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.68
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.5%EV-0.0%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.66
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.5%EV-1.2%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.92
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.5%EV+14.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:49: under 10.5 at 2.20 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 8.5Actual: 5+1.10u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.104 Oct, 11:49

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 8.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.5%EV+11.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.5%EV+13.8%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.5%EV-0.0%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.92
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.5%EV+6.6%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.02
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.5%EV+12.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:49: under 8.5 at 2.10 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots on target · Wales total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 3.5Actual: 1+1.15u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.154 Oct, 11:49

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 3.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance58.5%EV+5.2%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance58.5%EV-3.5%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance58.5%EV+19.9%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance58.5%EV+5.2%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.67
No saved recommendation
Model chance58.5%EV-2.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance58.5%EV+7.0%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:49: under 3.5 at 2.15 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return+37.5%ROI · 8 units staked

Profit+3.00units

W / L5 / 3picks

Avg odds2.25settled picks

Recorded picks81 matches

Around this match

CompetitionUEFA Nations League Home teamWales Away teamDenmark RefereeIrfan Peljto

Match overview

Matches

Cards · Denmark total

Fouls · Wales total

Goal kicks · Denmark total

Offsides · match total

Offsides · Denmark total

Shots · Wales total

Shots on target · match total

Shots on target · Wales total

This match

Around this match

Previous meetings

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This category

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