Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens 3-1 — UEFA Champions League

UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 26/27

Shakhtar Donetsk

3–1

HT 1–1

AEK Athens

Wed 14 Oct·13:00·Matchday 2·Neutral venue·Stamford Bridge, Lviv·Shakhtar Donetsk won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

5Corners2
1Cards4
12Shots13
4Shots on target3
16Fouls17
10Throw-ins19
4Offsides2
6Goal kicks3
2Saves1
20Tackles19
12Interceptions6
5Dribbles11

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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0Free available0VIP available3Recorded Free3Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

13:00Shakhtar DonetskvAEK AthensUEFA Champions League2 won / 4 lost · −2.13u · 6 picks

Corners · Shakhtar Donetsk total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 5−1.00u on one unit

Paddy Powerrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9113 Oct, 10:30

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 53.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.86
Expected value at recommendation: +2.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 53.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.86. Expected value at recommendation: +2.8%.

At recommendation, Paddy Power’s overall market record had 66 settled picksand +0.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Paddy Powerresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.9%EV+2.8%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.9%EV-1.2%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.9%EV-0.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.9%EV-0.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.78
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.9%EV-4.1%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.9%EV-3.0%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.9%EV-1.4%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 10:30: under 4.5 at 1.91 with Paddy Power. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 12:54. The original pick remains in the results.

Goal kicks · Shakhtar Donetsk total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 7.5Actual: 6−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8514 Oct, 05:48

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 61.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.65
Expected value at recommendation: +12.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 61.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.65. Expected value at recommendation: +12.8%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 76 settled picksand +21.8% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 7.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance61.0%EV+12.8%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationover 7.5
At recommendation1.84
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance61.0%EV+12.1%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-11.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 05:48: over 7.5 at 1.85 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 07:48. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 23.5Actual: 25+1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0013 Oct, 10:30

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.96
Expected value at recommendation: +2.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 51.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.96. Expected value at recommendation: +2.1%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 30 settled picksand +10.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 23.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.1%EV+2.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiAt recommendationover 23.5
At recommendation2.04
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.1%EV+4.2%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationover 23.5
At recommendation1.88
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.6%EV+0.9%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 23.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.55
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.9%EV-21.1%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 23.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.9%EV-18.5%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 23.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.9%EV-18.5%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 10:30: over 23.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 11:12. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 8.5Actual: 7−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0012 Oct, 18:18

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.95
Expected value at recommendation: +2.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.95. Expected value at recommendation: +2.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 8.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.4%EV+2.7%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.5%EV-10.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.5%EV-12.7%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.25
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.5%EV+9.1%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.5%EV-12.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.5%EV+4.3%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 18:18: over 8.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 02:36. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · AEK Athens total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 4.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0014 Oct, 05:48

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 59.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.69
Expected value at recommendation: +19.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 59.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.69. Expected value at recommendation: +19.0%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 128 settled picksand +0.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance59.5%EV+19.0%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance42.1%EV-17.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.23
No saved recommendation
Model chance42.1%EV-6.1%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance42.1%EV-15.8%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.35
No saved recommendation
Model chance42.1%EV-1.0%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 05:48: over 4.5 at 2.00 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 07:48. The original pick remains in the results.

Throw-ins · Shakhtar Donetsk total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 17.5Actual: 10+0.87u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8714 Oct, 05:48

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 56.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.78
Expected value at recommendation: +5.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.78. Expected value at recommendation: +5.4%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 94 settled picksand +9.6% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 17.5
At recommendation1.87
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.4%EV+5.4%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 17.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.7%EV-19.6%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 17.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.7%EV-17.2%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 17.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.7%EV-22.1%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 05:48: under 17.5 at 1.87 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 07:48. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−35.5%ROI · 6 units staked

Profit−2.13units

W / L2 / 4picks

Avg odds1.94settled picks

Recorded picks61 matches

Around this match

CompetitionUEFA Champions League Home teamShakhtar Donetsk Away teamAEK Athens RefereeChris Kavanagh

Match overview

Matches

Corners · Shakhtar Donetsk total

Goal kicks · Shakhtar Donetsk total

Shots · match total

Shots on target · match total

Shots on target · AEK Athens total

Throw-ins · Shakhtar Donetsk total

This match

Around this match

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