SC Heerenveen vs Excelsior 4-0 — Eredivisie

EredivisieEredivisie 26/27

SC Heerenveen

4–0

HT 1–0

Excelsior

Fri 16 Oct·12:00·Matchday 9·Abe Lenstra Stadion·SC Heerenveen won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

4Corners1
0Cards1
14Shots5
7Shots on target1
9Fouls10
20Throw-ins16
3Offsides0
10Goal kicks8
1Saves3
9Tackles15
6Interceptions9
4Dribbles6

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Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

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Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

12:00SC HeerenveenvExcelsiorEredivisie1 won / 2 lost · −0.90u · 3 picks

Corners · Excelsior total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 3.5Actual: 1+1.10u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1016 Oct, 02:17

Closing odds2.1016 Oct, 00:57

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 50.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 2.00
Expected value at recommendation: +5.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 50.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +5.1%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 105 settled picksand +1.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds2.10
Unchanged
Model chance50.0%EV+5.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 00:57
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds3.40Closing chance estimate33.4%Closing EV estimate+13.5%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 00:57
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate50.3%Closing EV estimate+5.7%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 00:57
- under 4.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate65.6%Closing EV estimate+1.7%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 00:57
- under 5.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate77.9%Closing EV estimate−5.0%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 00:57
Bet365Closing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV+5.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 14 Oct, 00:15
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate50.3%Closing EV estimate+5.7%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 00:15
BetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.06
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV+3.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 07:48
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.06Closing chance estimate50.3%Closing EV estimate+3.7%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 07:48
BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV+8.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 10:41
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds3.60Closing chance estimate33.4%Closing EV estimate+20.2%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 10:41
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimate50.3%Closing EV estimate+8.2%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 04:17
- under 4.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate65.6%Closing EV estimate+1.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 04:17
- under 5.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate77.9%Closing EV estimate−2.6%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 10:41
- under 6.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate86.9%Closing EV estimate−5.3%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 10:41
KambiClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV+5.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 11:56
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds3.25Closing chance estimate33.4%Closing EV estimate+8.5%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 11:56
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate50.3%Closing EV estimate+5.7%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 11:56
- under 4.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate65.6%Closing EV estimate+1.7%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 11:56
- under 5.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate77.9%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 11:05
- under 6.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate86.9%Closing EV estimate−1.8%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 05:17
- under 7.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate92.8%Closing EV estimate−1.6%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 06:20
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV+10.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 11:03
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate33.4%Closing EV estimate+23.6%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 11:03
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimate50.3%Closing EV estimate+10.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 11:03
- under 4.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate65.6%Closing EV estimate−1.6%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 11:03
- under 5.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate77.9%Closing EV estimate−5.0%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 11:03
- under 6.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate86.9%Closing EV estimate−7.9%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 11:03
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.22
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV+11.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 04:57
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 0.5odds17.00Closing chance estimate5.3%Closing EV estimate−9.8%margin—Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 01:42
- under 1.5odds6.60Closing chance estimate17.2%Closing EV estimate+13.5%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 04:57
- under 2.5odds3.45Closing chance estimate33.4%Closing EV estimate+15.2%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 04:57
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.22Closing chance estimate50.3%Closing EV estimate+11.8%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 04:57
- under 4.5odds1.63Closing chance estimate65.6%Closing EV estimate+6.9%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 04:57
- under 5.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate77.9%Closing EV estimate+3.6%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 04:57
- under 6.5odds1.17Closing chance estimate86.9%Closing EV estimate+1.6%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 04:57
- under 7.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate92.8%Closing EV estimate+0.2%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 04:52

Recommendation record

Recorded 16 Oct, 02:17: under 3.5 at 2.10 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Saves · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 6.5Actual: 4−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8516 Oct, 04:58

Closing odds1.8516 Oct, 04:52

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 56.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.77
Expected value at recommendation: +4.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.77. Expected value at recommendation: +4.8%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 58 settled picksand +11.9% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 6.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds1.85
Unchanged
Model chance56.7%EV+4.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 04:52
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 5.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate70.6%Closing EV estimate+2.3%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 04:52
- over 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate56.7%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 04:52
- over 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate42.7%Closing EV estimate+6.7%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 04:52
KambiClosing estimateover 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.08
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.7%EV+17.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 11:56
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 5.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate70.6%Closing EV estimate+12.9%margin—Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 11:56
- over 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.08Closing chance estimate56.7%Closing EV estimate+17.9%margin—Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 11:56
- over 7.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate42.7%Closing EV estimate+21.6%margin—Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 03:12

Recommendation record

Recorded 16 Oct, 04:58: over 6.5 at 1.85 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · Excelsior total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 12.5Actual: 5−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.2813 Oct, 06:24

Closing odds2.2813 Oct, 06:20

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 52.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.92
Expected value at recommendation: +18.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 52.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.92. Expected value at recommendation: +18.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 12.5
At recommendation2.28
Closing odds2.28
Unchanged
Model chance52.1%EV+18.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 11:56
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 10.5odds1.67Closing chance estimate52.5%Closing EV estimate−12.4%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 11:56
- over 11.5odds1.96Closing chance estimate43.4%Closing EV estimate−14.9%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 11:56
- over 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.28Closing chance estimate35.0%Closing EV estimate−20.3%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 06:20
BetliveClosing estimateover 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.35
No saved recommendation
Model chance35.0%EV-17.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 04:52
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 9.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate61.7%Closing EV estimate−17.9%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 04:52
- over 10.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate52.5%Closing EV estimate−18.7%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 04:52
- over 11.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate43.4%Closing EV estimate−19.7%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 04:52
- over 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.35Closing chance estimate35.0%Closing EV estimate−17.8%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 04:52
CrocobetClosing estimateover 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance35.0%EV-30.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 06:52
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 10.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate52.5%Closing EV estimate−23.9%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 06:52
- over 11.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate43.4%Closing EV estimate−28.4%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 06:52
- over 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate35.0%Closing EV estimate−30.1%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 06:52
- over 13.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate27.4%Closing EV estimate−39.8%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 03:47
LiderbetClosing estimateover 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance35.0%EV-35.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 05:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 10.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate52.5%Closing EV estimate−23.9%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 05:02
- over 11.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate43.4%Closing EV estimate−28.4%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 05:02
- over 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate35.0%Closing EV estimate−35.3%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 05:02
- over 13.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate27.4%Closing EV estimate−38.4%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 05:02
- over 14.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate20.8%Closing EV estimate−43.9%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 05:02
SuperbetClosing estimateover 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance35.0%EV-24.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 11:07
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 8.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate70.8%Closing EV estimate−14.3%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 11:07
- over 9.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate61.7%Closing EV estimate−16.6%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 11:07
- over 10.5odds1.54Closing chance estimate52.5%Closing EV estimate−19.2%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 11:07
- over 11.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate43.4%Closing EV estimate−21.9%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 11:07
- over 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimate35.0%Closing EV estimate−24.8%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 11:07
- over 13.5odds2.62Closing chance estimate27.4%Closing EV estimate−28.3%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 11:07
- over 14.5odds3.25Closing chance estimate20.8%Closing EV estimate−32.4%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 11:07
- over 15.5odds3.45Closing chance estimate15.3%Closing EV estimate−47.2%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 01:57

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 06:24: over 12.5 at 2.28 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 15 Oct, 06:30. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−30.0%ROI · 3 units staked

Profit−0.90units

W / L1 / 2picks

Avg odds2.08settled picks

Recorded picks31 matches

Around this match

CompetitionEredivisie Home teamSC Heerenveen Away teamExcelsior RefereeRobin Hensgens

Match overview

Matches

Corners · Excelsior total

Saves · match total

Shots · Excelsior total

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