Romania vs Sweden 0-1 — UEFA Nations League

UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League 26/27

Romania

0–1

HT 0–1

Sweden

Mon 5 Oct·12:45·Matchday 4·National Arena·Sweden won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

5Corners4
4Cards2
13Shots12
4Shots on target2
15Fouls11
15Throw-ins15
3Offsides0
8Goal kicks8
1Saves4
14Tackles8
17Interceptions7
9Dribbles7

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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0Free available0VIP available7Recorded Free3Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

12:45

Romaniav

SwedenUEFA Nations League1 won / 9 lost · −7.90u · 10 picks

Fouls · Romania total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 11.5Actual: 15−1.00u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.655 Oct, 11:45

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 11.5
At recommendation2.65
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 11.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 5 Oct, 11:45: under 11.5 at 2.65 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Fouls · Sweden total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 11.5Actual: 11−1.00u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.655 Oct, 12:20

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveOriginal model estimate unavailableover 11.5
At recommendation2.55
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Crocobetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 11.5
At recommendation2.65
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetOriginal model estimate unavailableover 11.5
At recommendation2.55
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance34.0%EV-32.0%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 5 Oct, 12:20: over 11.5 at 2.65 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Goal kicks · Sweden total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 6.5Actual: 8−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.105 Oct, 11:45

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 6.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 6.5
At recommendation1.83
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance70.2%EV+26.4%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance70.2%EV+22.9%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 5 Oct, 11:45: under 6.5 at 2.10 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 26.5Actual: 25−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.805 Oct, 03:43

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveOriginal model estimate unavailableover 26.5
At recommendation2.75
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetOriginal model estimate unavailableover 26.5
At recommendation2.75
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiOriginal model estimate unavailableover 26.5
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Liderbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 26.5
At recommendation2.80
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 26.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.88
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.3%EV-18.7%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 5 Oct, 03:43: over 26.5 at 2.80 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots · Romania total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 10.5Actual: 13−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.405 Oct, 11:45

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 10.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 10.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Liderbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 10.5
At recommendation2.40
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 10.5
At recommendation2.27
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.2%EV-18.3%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.93
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.2%EV-8.9%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 5 Oct, 11:45: under 10.5 at 2.40 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots · Sweden total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 15.5Actual: 12−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.164 Oct, 09:07

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 15.5
At recommendation2.16
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 15.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance41.2%EV-5.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 09:07: over 15.5 at 2.16 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots on target · Romania total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 3.5Actual: 4−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.225 Oct, 12:05

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 3.5
At recommendation2.22
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.1%EV+5.3%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.1%EV-0.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.1%EV+2.0%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.84
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.1%EV+1.5%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.1%EV+10.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 5 Oct, 12:05: under 3.5 at 2.22 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots on target · Sweden total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 5.5Actual: 2−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.455 Oct, 11:45

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 5.5
At recommendation2.45
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetOriginal model estimate unavailableover 5.5
At recommendation2.45
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetOriginal model estimate unavailableover 5.5
At recommendation2.25
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.32
No saved recommendation
Model chance46.5%EV+8.0%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance46.5%EV-6.9%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 5 Oct, 11:45: over 5.5 at 2.45 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Throw-ins · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 36.5Actual: 30−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.555 Oct, 12:20

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveOriginal model estimate unavailableover 36.5
At recommendation2.30
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetOriginal model estimate unavailableover 36.5
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Liderbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 36.5
At recommendation2.55
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 5 Oct, 12:20: over 36.5 at 2.55 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Throw-ins · Romania total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 17.5Actual: 15+1.10u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.105 Oct, 03:43

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 17.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 17.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance77.0%EV+65.6%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 17.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance77.0%EV+50.2%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 17.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance77.0%EV+41.0%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 5 Oct, 03:43: under 17.5 at 2.10 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−79.0%ROI · 10 units staked

Profit−7.90units

W / L1 / 9picks

Avg odds2.41settled picks

Recorded picks101 matches

Around this match

CompetitionUEFA Nations League Home teamRomania Away teamSweden RefereeMasiyev, Elcin

Match overview

Matches

Fouls · Romania total

Fouls · Sweden total

Goal kicks · Sweden total

Shots · match total

Shots · Romania total

Shots · Sweden total

Shots on target · Romania total

Shots on target · Sweden total

Throw-ins · match total

Throw-ins · Romania total

This match

Around this match

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