Roma vs Genoa 2-0 — Serie A

Serie ASerie A 26/27

Roma

2–0

HT 0–0

Genoa

Sat 17 Oct·12:45·Matchday 7·Stadio Olimpico·Roma won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

5Corners3
2Cards3
15Shots9
5Shots on target1
10Fouls7
27Throw-ins28
3Offsides2
4Goal kicks11
1Saves3
11Tackles18
6Interceptions12
8Dribbles3

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Board

Matches

1 match

12:45RomavGenoaSerie A3 won / 3 lost · −0.08u · 6 picks

Corners · Roma total

Open match →FreeWon

under 5.5Actual: 5+1.10u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1017 Oct, 05:55

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 2.00
Expected value at recommendation: +5.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 50.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +5.0%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 180 settled picksand +1.8% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 5.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.0%EV+5.0%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV+6.6%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV+9.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV+11.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV+9.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.25
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV+14.2%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.07
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV+5.1%
12 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 05:55: under 5.5 at 2.10 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 08:38. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Genoa total

Open match →FreeWon

over 2.5Actual: 3+0.91u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9112 Oct, 18:18

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 60.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.65
Expected value at recommendation: +15.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 60.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.65. Expected value at recommendation: +15.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance60.6%EV+15.7%
BetliveClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.55
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.1%EV-3.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.1%EV+2.5%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.64
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.1%EV+1.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.1%EV-6.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.1%EV+8.7%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.54
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.1%EV-4.3%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 18:18: over 2.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 10:15. The original pick remains in the results.

Goal kicks · Roma total

Open match →VIPLost

over 6.5Actual: 4−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1517 Oct, 03:21

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 53.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.88
Expected value at recommendation: +14.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 53.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.88. Expected value at recommendation: +14.6%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 87 settled picksand +15.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 6.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.3%EV+14.6%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationover 6.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.3%EV+6.6%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationover 6.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.3%EV+6.6%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.12
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.8%EV+11.9%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 03:21: over 6.5 at 2.15 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · Genoa total

Open match →FreeWon

over 7.5Actual: 9+0.91u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9114 Oct, 00:52

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 77.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.29
Expected value at recommendation: +48.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 77.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.29. Expected value at recommendation: +48.6%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 131 settled picksand +0.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 7.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance77.9%EV+48.6%
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.61
No saved recommendation
Model chance82.2%EV+32.3%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance82.2%EV-1.4%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.55
No saved recommendation
Model chance82.2%EV+27.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.34
No saved recommendation
Model chance82.2%EV+10.1%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 00:52: over 7.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 02:13. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Genoa total

Open match →FreeLost

over 2.5Actual: 1−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9117 Oct, 03:50

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 70.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.43
Expected value at recommendation: +34.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 70.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.43. Expected value at recommendation: +34.1%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 132 settled picksand +6.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance70.2%EV+34.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.66
No saved recommendation
Model chance68.8%EV+14.3%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.55
No saved recommendation
Model chance68.8%EV+6.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.55
No saved recommendation
Model chance68.8%EV+6.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.58
No saved recommendation
Model chance68.8%EV+8.8%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.55
No saved recommendation
Model chance68.8%EV+6.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance68.8%EV+19.1%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 03:50: over 2.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 10:19. The original pick remains in the results.

Throw-ins · match total

Open match →FreeLost

under 38.5Actual: 55−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0017 Oct, 03:21

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.84
Expected value at recommendation: +9.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 54.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.84. Expected value at recommendation: +9.0%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 421 settled picksand +0.8% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 38.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.5%EV+9.0%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationunder 38.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.5%EV+9.0%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 38.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.2%EV+3.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 38.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.17
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.2%EV+15.4%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 03:21: under 38.5 at 2.00 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−1.4%ROI · 6 units staked

Profit−0.08units

W / L3 / 3picks

Avg odds2.00settled picks

Recorded picks61 matches

Around this match

CompetitionSerie A Home teamRoma Away teamGenoa RefereeRosario Abisso

Matches

Corners · Roma total

Corners · Genoa total

Goal kicks · Roma total

Shots · Genoa total

Shots on target · Genoa total

Throw-ins · match total

This match

Around this match

Previous meetings