Roma vs Genoa 2-0 — Serie A

Serie ASerie A 26/27

Roma

2–0

HT 0–0

Genoa

Sat 17 Oct·12:45·Matchday 7·Stadio Olimpico·Roma won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

5Corners3
2Cards3
15Shots9
5Shots on target1
10Fouls7
27Throw-ins28
3Offsides2
4Goal kicks11
1Saves3
11Tackles18
6Interceptions12
8Dribbles3

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

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We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

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Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

12:45RomavGenoaSerie A3 won / 3 lost · −0.08u · 6 picks

Corners · Roma total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 5.5Actual: 5+1.10u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1017 Oct, 05:55

Closing odds2.0817 Oct, 12:38

Odds down−0.02

Model chance at recommendation: 50.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 2.00
Expected value at recommendation: +5.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 50.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +5.0%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 180 settled picksand +1.8% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 5.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds2.08
Odds down−0.02
Model chance50.0%EV+5.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 12:38
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds4.30Closing chance estimate24.3%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:38
- under 4.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate37.3%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:38
- under 5.5odds2.08Closing chance estimate50.8%Closing EV estimate+5.6%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:38
- under 6.5odds1.64Closing chance estimate63.3%Closing EV estimate+3.8%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:38
- under 7.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate74.2%Closing EV estimate+2.3%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:38
- under 8.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate82.8%Closing EV estimate+1.0%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:38
- under 9.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate89.2%Closing EV estimate+0.8%margin8.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:53
Bet365Closing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV+6.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 05:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate50.8%Closing EV estimate+6.6%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:31
BetliveClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV+9.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 09:53
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate37.3%Closing EV estimate+15.8%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:53
- under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimate50.8%Closing EV estimate+9.1%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 07:15
- under 6.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate63.3%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:53
- under 7.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate74.2%Closing EV estimate−1.4%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:53
- under 8.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate82.8%Closing EV estimate−4.8%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 07:15
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV+11.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 03:54
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate37.3%Closing EV estimate+30.7%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 03:43
- under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimate50.8%Closing EV estimate+11.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 03:54
- under 6.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate63.3%Closing EV estimate+7.6%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 03:54
- under 7.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate74.2%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 03:54
- under 8.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate82.8%Closing EV estimate−2.3%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 03:54
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV+9.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 11:53
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5odds3.20Closing chance estimate37.3%Closing EV estimate+19.5%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:53
- under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimate50.8%Closing EV estimate+9.1%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:53
- under 6.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate63.3%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:53
- under 7.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate74.2%Closing EV estimate−2.9%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:53
- under 8.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate82.8%Closing EV estimate−6.4%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:53
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.25
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV+14.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 12:30
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds10.00Closing chance estimate13.2%Closing EV estimate+31.5%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:30
- under 3.5odds5.50Closing chance estimate24.3%Closing EV estimate+33.6%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:30
- under 4.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate37.3%Closing EV estimate+23.2%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:30
- under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimate50.8%Closing EV estimate+14.2%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:30
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.07
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV+5.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 12:43
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 0.5odds50.00Closing chance estimate1.2%Closing EV estimate−38.0%margin—Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:04
- under 1.5odds17.00Closing chance estimate5.3%Closing EV estimate−9.9%margin4.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:14
- under 2.5odds7.80Closing chance estimate13.2%Closing EV estimate+2.6%margin7.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:32
- under 3.5odds4.50Closing chance estimate24.3%Closing EV estimate+9.3%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:43
- under 4.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate37.3%Closing EV estimate+8.3%margin6.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:43
- under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.07Closing chance estimate50.8%Closing EV estimate+5.1%margin7.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:43
- under 6.5odds1.63Closing chance estimate63.3%Closing EV estimate+3.2%margin6.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:43
- under 7.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate74.2%Closing EV estimate+1.6%margin6.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:43
- under 8.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate82.8%Closing EV estimate+0.2%margin6.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:32
- under 9.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate89.2%Closing EV estimate−1.0%margin7.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:14
- under 10.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate93.6%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin6.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:32
- under 11.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate96.4%Closing EV estimate−0.7%margin6.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 13:02

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 05:55: under 5.5 at 2.10 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 08:38. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Genoa total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 2.5Actual: 3+0.91u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9112 Oct, 18:18

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 60.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.65
Expected value at recommendation: +15.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 60.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.65. Expected value at recommendation: +15.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance60.6%EV+15.7%
BetliveClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.55
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.1%EV-3.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 09:53
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate80.0%Closing EV estimate−7.2%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 07:15
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.55Closing chance estimate62.1%Closing EV estimate−3.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 07:15
- over 3.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate44.3%Closing EV estimate+1.9%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 07:15
- over 4.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate29.1%Closing EV estimate+9.1%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:53
- over 5.5odds6.40Closing chance estimate17.6%Closing EV estimate+12.8%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 07:15
CrocobetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.1%EV+2.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 03:54
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate80.0%Closing EV estimate−4.0%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 03:54
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimate62.1%Closing EV estimate+2.5%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 03:54
- over 3.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate44.3%Closing EV estimate+8.5%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 03:54
- over 4.5odds4.50Closing chance estimate29.1%Closing EV estimate+31.0%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 03:54
KambiClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.64
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.1%EV+1.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 12:38
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate80.0%Closing EV estimate−2.4%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:36
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.64Closing chance estimate62.1%Closing EV estimate+1.9%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:38
- over 3.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate44.3%Closing EV estimate+6.3%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:38
- over 4.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate29.1%Closing EV estimate+7.7%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:38
- over 5.5odds5.75Closing chance estimate17.6%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:38
LiderbetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.1%EV-6.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 11:53
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate80.0%Closing EV estimate−8.8%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:53
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimate62.1%Closing EV estimate−6.8%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:53
- over 3.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate44.3%Closing EV estimate+1.9%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:53
- over 4.5odds3.90Closing chance estimate29.1%Closing EV estimate+13.5%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:53
- over 5.5odds7.05Closing chance estimate17.6%Closing EV estimate+24.2%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:53
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.1%EV+8.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 12:30
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate62.1%Closing EV estimate+8.7%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:30
- over 3.5odds2.88Closing chance estimate44.3%Closing EV estimate+27.3%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:30
- over 4.5odds5.50Closing chance estimate29.1%Closing EV estimate+60.1%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:30
- over 5.5odds9.00Closing chance estimate17.6%Closing EV estimate+58.6%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:30
SuperbetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.54
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.1%EV-4.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 12:14
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate93.7%Closing EV estimate−3.4%margin6.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:57
- over 1.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate80.0%Closing EV estimate−4.0%margin6.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:14
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.54Closing chance estimate62.1%Closing EV estimate−4.3%margin7.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:14
- over 3.5odds2.15Closing chance estimate44.3%Closing EV estimate−4.8%margin6.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:14
- over 4.5odds3.20Closing chance estimate29.1%Closing EV estimate−6.9%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:14
- over 5.5odds4.90Closing chance estimate17.6%Closing EV estimate−13.7%margin7.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:14
- over 6.5odds7.70Closing chance estimate9.8%Closing EV estimate−24.4%margin7.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:57
- over 7.5odds13.00Closing chance estimate5.0%Closing EV estimate−34.4%margin5.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:04
- over 8.5odds21.00Closing chance estimate2.4%Closing EV estimate−49.5%margin4.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:04
- over 9.5odds35.00Closing chance estimate1.1%Closing EV estimate−62.6%margin2.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:57

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 18:18: over 2.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 10:15. The original pick remains in the results.

Goal kicks · Roma total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 6.5Actual: 4−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1517 Oct, 03:21

Closing odds2.1517 Oct, 03:20

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 53.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.88
Expected value at recommendation: +14.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 53.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.88. Expected value at recommendation: +14.6%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 87 settled picksand +15.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 6.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds2.15
Unchanged
Model chance53.3%EV+14.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 03:20
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 4.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate78.5%Closing EV estimate+2.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 03:20
- over 5.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate66.1%Closing EV estimate+5.8%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 03:20
- over 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimate52.8%Closing EV estimate+13.5%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 03:20
CrocobetAt recommendationover 6.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds2.00
Unchanged
Model chance53.3%EV+6.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 05:23
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 5.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate66.1%Closing EV estimate+2.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:23
- over 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate52.8%Closing EV estimate+5.6%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:23
- over 7.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate40.0%Closing EV estimate+10.0%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:23
LiderbetAt recommendationover 6.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds2.00
Unchanged
Model chance53.3%EV+6.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 11:53
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 5.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate66.1%Closing EV estimate+2.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:53
- over 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate52.8%Closing EV estimate+5.6%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:53
- over 7.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate40.0%Closing EV estimate+12.0%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:53
SuperbetClosing estimateover 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.12
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.8%EV+11.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 12:34
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 5.5odds1.67Closing chance estimate66.1%Closing EV estimate+10.4%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:34
- over 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.12Closing chance estimate52.8%Closing EV estimate+11.9%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:02

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 03:21: over 6.5 at 2.15 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · Genoa total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 7.5Actual: 9+0.91u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9114 Oct, 00:52

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 77.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.29
Expected value at recommendation: +48.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 77.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.29. Expected value at recommendation: +48.6%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 131 settled picksand +0.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 7.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance77.9%EV+48.6%
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.61
No saved recommendation
Model chance82.2%EV+32.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 03:40
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.61Closing chance estimate82.2%Closing EV estimate+32.3%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 03:40
CrocobetClosing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance82.2%EV-1.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 05:23
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.20Closing chance estimate82.2%Closing EV estimate−1.4%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:23
- over 8.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate74.1%Closing EV estimate+3.8%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:23
- over 9.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate65.1%Closing EV estimate+10.6%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:23
- over 10.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate55.6%Closing EV estimate+16.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:23
- over 11.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate46.1%Closing EV estimate+31.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:23
KambiClosing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.55
No saved recommendation
Model chance82.2%EV+27.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 12:38
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.55Closing chance estimate82.2%Closing EV estimate+27.4%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 00:03
- over 8.5odds1.77Closing chance estimate74.1%Closing EV estimate+31.2%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:38
- over 9.5odds2.15Closing chance estimate65.1%Closing EV estimate+39.9%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:38
SuperbetClosing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.34
No saved recommendation
Model chance82.2%EV+10.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 12:43
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 6.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate88.8%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:36
- over 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.34Closing chance estimate82.2%Closing EV estimate+10.1%margin10.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:36
- over 8.5odds1.58Closing chance estimate74.1%Closing EV estimate+17.1%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:43
- over 9.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate65.1%Closing EV estimate+23.6%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:36
- over 10.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate55.6%Closing EV estimate+27.8%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:36
- over 11.5odds2.82Closing chance estimate46.1%Closing EV estimate+29.9%margin10.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:36
- over 12.5odds3.60Closing chance estimate37.1%Closing EV estimate+33.5%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:36
- over 13.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate28.9%Closing EV estimate+7.1%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:32

Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 00:52: over 7.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 02:13. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Genoa total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 2.5Actual: 1−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9117 Oct, 03:50

Closing odds1.9116 Oct, 12:56

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 70.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.43
Expected value at recommendation: +34.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 70.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.43. Expected value at recommendation: +34.1%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 132 settled picksand +6.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds1.91
Unchanged
Model chance70.2%EV+34.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 12:56
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate68.8%Closing EV estimate+31.4%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 12:56
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.66
No saved recommendation
Model chance68.8%EV+14.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 03:40
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.66Closing chance estimate68.8%Closing EV estimate+14.3%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 03:40
BetliveClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.55
No saved recommendation
Model chance68.8%EV+6.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 03:20
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.55Closing chance estimate68.8%Closing EV estimate+6.7%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 03:20
- over 3.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate48.1%Closing EV estimate+10.6%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 03:20
CrocobetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.55
No saved recommendation
Model chance68.8%EV+6.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 05:23
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate86.5%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:23
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.55Closing chance estimate68.8%Closing EV estimate+6.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:23
- over 3.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate48.1%Closing EV estimate+10.6%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:23
KambiClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.58
No saved recommendation
Model chance68.8%EV+8.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 12:38
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.17Closing chance estimate86.5%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:38
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.58Closing chance estimate68.8%Closing EV estimate+8.8%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:38
- over 3.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate48.1%Closing EV estimate+15.4%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:38
- over 4.5odds3.90Closing chance estimate29.5%Closing EV estimate+14.9%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:38
LiderbetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.55
No saved recommendation
Model chance68.8%EV+6.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 11:53
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate86.5%Closing EV estimate+2.1%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:53
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.55Closing chance estimate68.8%Closing EV estimate+6.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:53
- over 3.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate48.1%Closing EV estimate+10.6%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:53
SuperbetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance68.8%EV+19.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 12:34
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate96.9%Closing EV estimate−2.1%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:34
- over 1.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate86.5%Closing EV estimate+6.5%margin10.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:34
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimate68.8%Closing EV estimate+19.1%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:34
- over 3.5odds2.62Closing chance estimate48.1%Closing EV estimate+26.0%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:34
- over 4.5odds4.25Closing chance estimate29.5%Closing EV estimate+25.2%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:34
- over 5.5odds6.90Closing chance estimate15.9%Closing EV estimate+9.7%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:34

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 03:50: over 2.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 10:19. The original pick remains in the results.

Throw-ins · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 38.5Actual: 55−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0017 Oct, 03:21

Closing odds2.0017 Oct, 03:20

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 54.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.84
Expected value at recommendation: +9.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 54.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.84. Expected value at recommendation: +9.0%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 421 settled picksand +0.8% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 38.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds2.00
Unchanged
Model chance54.5%EV+9.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 03:20
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 36.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate42.8%Closing EV estimate+11.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 03:20
- under 37.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate48.0%Closing EV estimate+8.0%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 03:20
- under 38.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate53.2%Closing EV estimate+6.3%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 03:20
- under 39.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate58.2%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 03:20
- under 40.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate63.1%Closing EV estimate+0.9%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 03:20
- under 41.5odds1.48Closing chance estimate67.7%Closing EV estimate+0.2%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 03:20
- under 42.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate72.0%Closing EV estimate−1.3%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 03:20
LiderbetAt recommendationunder 38.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds2.00
Unchanged
Model chance54.5%EV+9.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 11:53
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 36.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate42.8%Closing EV estimate+7.0%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:53
- under 37.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate48.0%Closing EV estimate+5.6%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:53
- under 38.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate53.2%Closing EV estimate+6.3%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:53
- under 39.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate58.2%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:53
- under 40.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate63.1%Closing EV estimate+0.9%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:53
- under 41.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate67.7%Closing EV estimate−1.8%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:53
- under 42.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate72.0%Closing EV estimate−1.3%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:53
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 38.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.2%EV+3.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 05:23
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 37.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate48.0%Closing EV estimate+5.6%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:23
- under 38.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate53.2%Closing EV estimate+3.7%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:23
- under 39.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate58.2%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:23
- under 40.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate63.1%Closing EV estimate+4.1%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:23
- under 41.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate67.7%Closing EV estimate+1.6%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:23
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 38.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.17
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.2%EV+15.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 12:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 37.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate48.0%Closing EV estimate+5.6%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 11:48
- under 38.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.17Closing chance estimate53.2%Closing EV estimate+15.4%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:32
- under 39.5odds1.92Closing chance estimate58.2%Closing EV estimate+11.8%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:32
- under 40.5odds1.71Closing chance estimate63.1%Closing EV estimate+7.9%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:32

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 03:21: under 38.5 at 2.00 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−1.4%ROI · 6 units staked

Profit−0.08units

W / L3 / 3picks

Avg odds2.00settled picks

Recorded picks61 matches

Around this match

CompetitionSerie A Home teamRoma Away teamGenoa RefereeRosario Abisso

Match overview

Matches

Corners · Roma total

Corners · Genoa total

Goal kicks · Roma total

Shots · Genoa total

Shots on target · Genoa total

Throw-ins · match total

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