Rio Ave vs CD Nacional 3-2 — Liga Portugal Betclic

Liga Portugal BetclicLiga Portugal 26/27

Rio Ave

3–2

HT 1–1

CD Nacional

Sun 11 Oct·08:30·Matchday 8·Estadio dos Arcos·Rio Ave won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

8Corners8
4Cards0
11Shots12
7Shots on target5
7Fouls17
22Throw-ins20
0Offsides3
8Goal kicks2
3Saves3
11Tackles20
8Interceptions9
6Dribbles3

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

0Free available0VIP available3Recorded Free1Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

08:30Rio AvevCD NacionalLiga Portugal Betclic1 won / 3 lost · −2.05u · 4 picks

Cards · CD Nacional total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 2.5Actual: 0+0.95u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9511 Oct, 02:48

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 70.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.42
Expected value at recommendation: +37.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 70.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.42. Expected value at recommendation: +37.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance70.6%EV+37.7%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance70.6%EV+16.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance70.6%EV+16.5%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 02:48: under 2.5 at 1.95 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Corners · Rio Ave total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 8−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.227 Oct, 10:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 56.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.78
Expected value at recommendation: +25.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.78. Expected value at recommendation: +25.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.7%EV+16.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.9%EV+15.7%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.22
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.5%EV+25.4%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.3%EV+12.6%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.3%EV+15.4%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: under 4.5 at 2.22 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Corners · CD Nacional total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 8−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.877 Oct, 10:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 62.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.59
Expected value at recommendation: +17.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 62.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.59. Expected value at recommendation: +17.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.87
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance62.9%EV+17.6%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.2%EV+10.3%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.68
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.2%EV+1.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.2%EV+5.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.2%EV+5.3%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.68
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.2%EV+1.1%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.2%EV+5.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: under 4.5 at 1.87 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 7 Oct, 16:42. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · CD Nacional total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 11.5Actual: 17−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1011 Oct, 05:36

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 59.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.68
Expected value at recommendation: +25.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 59.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.68. Expected value at recommendation: +25.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 11.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance59.9%EV+25.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 05:36: under 11.5 at 2.10 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−51.2%ROI · 4 units staked

Profit−2.05units

W / L1 / 3picks

Avg odds2.04settled picks

Recorded picks41 matches

Around this match

CompetitionLiga Portugal Betclic Home teamRio Ave Away teamCD Nacional RefereeCarlos Macedo

Match overview

Matches

Cards · CD Nacional total

Corners · Rio Ave total

Corners · CD Nacional total

Fouls · CD Nacional total

This match

Around this match

Previous meetings

On this page

This category

StatsGem