Paris Saint-Germain vs Barcelona — UEFA Champions League
UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 26/27
Tue 20 Oct··Matchday 3·Parc des Princes·Paris Saint-Germain won
Match overview
12 priority stats · full time- 2Corners3
- 0Cards1
- 22Shots18
- 15Shots on target5
- 11Fouls10
- 18Throw-ins10
- 2Offsides1
- 8Goal kicks3
- 3Saves10
- 17Tackles9
- 14Interceptions12
- 4Dribbles9
Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.
Board
Matches
Paris Saint-GermainvBarcelonaUEFA Champions League30 won / 2 lost · +25.13u · 32 picks
Provider statistics · StatsGem grading
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 10
- Reconstructed matches
- 10
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 64.2%
- Break-even odds
- 1.56
- Expected value at recommendation
- +17.6%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 64.2% · Break-even odds 1.56. Expected value at recommendation: +17.6%.
At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 10 settled picksand +69.5% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 9.5
Model chance64.2%EV+17.6%Odds down−0.05At recommendation1.83Closing odds1.78Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:40Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 2.5odds1.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.1%
- over 3.5odds1.01Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.1%
- over 4.5odds1.03Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.4%
- over 5.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.9%
- over 6.5odds1.17Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.7%
- over 7.5odds1.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.2%
- over 8.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.2%
- over 9.5odds1.78Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.5%
- over 10.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.8%
- over 11.5odds2.77Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.0%
- over 12.5odds3.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.9%
- over 13.5odds4.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.7%
- over 14.5odds6.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.8%
- over 15.5odds8.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.4%
- over 16.5odds12.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.4%
- over 17.5odds16.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.3%
Bet365Closing estimateover 9.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.83Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.1%
BetliveClosing estimateover 9.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.75Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:07Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 5.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- over 6.5odds1.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
- over 7.5odds1.24Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- over 8.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
- over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.7%
- over 10.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 11.5odds2.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 12.5odds3.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
- over 13.5odds5.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%
CrocobetClosing estimateover 9.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.75Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:40Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 5.5odds1.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- over 6.5odds1.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 7.5odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%
- over 8.5odds1.44Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%
- over 10.5odds2.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.0%
- over 11.5odds2.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 12.5odds4.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 13.5odds5.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
- over 14.5odds7.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
KambiClosing estimateover 9.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.70Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 6.5odds1.11Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%
- over 7.5odds1.23Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.1%
- over 8.5odds1.42Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.9%
- over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.8%
- over 10.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.0%
- over 11.5odds2.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.5%
- over 12.5odds3.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.2%
- over 13.5odds4.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%
LiderbetClosing estimateover 9.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.70Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:51Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 5.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.7%
- over 6.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.6%
- over 7.5odds1.24Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
- over 8.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.9%
- over 10.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 11.5odds2.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
- over 12.5odds4.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 13.5odds5.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 9.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.85Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 4.5odds1.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.2%
- over 5.5odds1.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.7%
- over 6.5odds1.11Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%
- over 7.5odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%
- over 8.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%
- over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%
- over 10.5odds2.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%
- over 11.5odds3.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%
- over 12.5odds4.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%
- over 13.5odds7.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.7%
- over 14.5odds9.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%
- over 15.5odds13.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.2%
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: over 9.5 at 1.83 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Provider statistics · StatsGem grading
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 45
- Reconstructed matches
- 45
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 63.7%
- Break-even odds
- 1.57
- Expected value at recommendation
- +11.5%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 63.7% · Break-even odds 1.57. Expected value at recommendation: +11.5%.
At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 45 settled picksand +29.6% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 22.5
Model chance63.7%EV+11.5%UnchangedAt recommendation1.75Closing odds1.75Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 07:47Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 19.5odds2.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- under 20.5odds2.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- under 21.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%
- under 22.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- under 23.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- under 24.5odds1.38Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%
- under 25.5odds1.27Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 22.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.80Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:55Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 18.5odds4.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- under 19.5odds2.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- under 20.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
- under 21.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%
- under 22.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- under 23.5odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%
- under 24.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
- under 25.5odds1.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- under 26.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 22.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.80Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 18.5odds3.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- under 19.5odds2.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- under 20.5odds2.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.1%
- under 21.5odds2.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%
- under 22.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- under 23.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- under 24.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
- under 25.5odds1.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 22.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.67Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 20.5odds2.27Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.3%
- under 21.5odds1.92Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.9%
- under 22.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.67Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.9%
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: under 22.5 at 1.75 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Provider statistics · StatsGem grading
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 57
- Reconstructed matches
- 56
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 68.3%
- Break-even odds
- 1.47
- Expected value at recommendation
- +22.9%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 68.3% · Break-even odds 1.47. Expected value at recommendation: +22.9%.
At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 57 settled picksand +35.3% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 11.5
Model chance68.3%EV+22.9%UnchangedAt recommendation1.80Closing odds1.80Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 07:47Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 10.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- under 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- under 12.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 10.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.85Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:55Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 8.5odds4.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- under 9.5odds3.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
- under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
- under 11.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- under 12.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- under 13.5odds1.33Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%
- under 14.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 10.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.85Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- under 11.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- under 12.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 10.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds—Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:13Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 9.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.5%
- under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.88Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.0%
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: under 11.5 at 1.80 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Provider statistics · StatsGem grading
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 188
- Reconstructed matches
- 184
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 53.6%
- Break-even odds
- 1.87
- Expected value at recommendation
- +0.7%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 53.6% · Break-even odds 1.87. Expected value at recommendation: +0.7%.
At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 188 settled picksand +1.7% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 10.5
Model chance53.6%EV+0.7%UnchangedAt recommendation1.88Closing odds1.88Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:13Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 9.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.5%
- under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.88Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.0%
BetliveClosing estimateunder 10.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.25Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 07:47Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- under 11.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- under 12.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 10.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.30Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:55Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 8.5odds4.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- under 9.5odds3.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
- under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
- under 11.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- under 12.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- under 13.5odds1.33Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%
- under 14.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 10.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.25Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- under 11.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- under 12.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: under 10.5 at 1.88 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Provider statistics · StatsGem grading
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 14
- Reconstructed matches
- 14
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 64.1%
- Break-even odds
- 1.56
- Expected value at recommendation
- +10.9%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 64.1% · Break-even odds 1.56. Expected value at recommendation: +10.9%.
At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 14 settled picksand +25.1% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 15.5
Model chance64.1%EV+10.9%Odds down−0.01At recommendation1.73Closing odds1.72Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:25Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 13.5odds2.52Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.6%
- under 14.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%
- under 15.5odds1.72Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%
- under 16.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%
BetliveClosing estimateunder 14.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.48Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:53Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 12.5odds2.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- under 13.5odds2.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%
- under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- under 15.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- under 16.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 14.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.45Last captured before kickoffas of 19 Oct, 09:00Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 11.5odds3.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
- under 12.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
- under 13.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- under 15.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
- under 16.5odds1.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- under 17.5odds1.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 14.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.45Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 11.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%
- under 12.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
- under 13.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%
- under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- under 15.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
- under 16.5odds1.29Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.6%
- under 17.5odds1.16Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: under 15.5 at 1.73 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Provider statistics · StatsGem grading
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 42
- Reconstructed matches
- 42
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 63.2%
- Break-even odds
- 1.58
- Expected value at recommendation
- +10.7%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 63.2% · Break-even odds 1.58. Expected value at recommendation: +10.7%.
At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 42 settled picksand +20.6% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 14.5
Model chance63.2%EV+10.7%UnchangedAt recommendation1.75Closing odds1.75Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:53Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 12.5odds2.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- under 13.5odds2.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%
- under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- under 15.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- under 16.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 14.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.65Last captured before kickoffas of 19 Oct, 09:00Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 11.5odds3.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
- under 12.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
- under 13.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- under 15.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
- under 16.5odds1.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- under 17.5odds1.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 14.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.70Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 11.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%
- under 12.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
- under 13.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%
- under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- under 15.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
- under 16.5odds1.29Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.6%
- under 17.5odds1.16Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 14.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.10Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:25Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 13.5odds2.52Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.6%
- under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%
- under 15.5odds1.72Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%
- under 16.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: under 14.5 at 1.75 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Provider statistics · StatsGem grading
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 10
- Reconstructed matches
- 10
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 63.4%
- Break-even odds
- 1.58
- Expected value at recommendation
- +7.8%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 63.4% · Break-even odds 1.58. Expected value at recommendation: +7.8%.
At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 10 settled picksand +55.0% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 14.5
Model chance63.4%EV+7.8%UnchangedAt recommendation1.70Closing odds1.70Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 11.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%
- under 12.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
- under 13.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%
- under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- under 15.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
- under 16.5odds1.29Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.6%
- under 17.5odds1.16Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%
BetliveClosing estimateunder 14.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.75Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:53Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 12.5odds2.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- under 13.5odds2.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%
- under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- under 15.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- under 16.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 14.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.65Last captured before kickoffas of 19 Oct, 09:00Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 11.5odds3.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
- under 12.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
- under 13.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- under 15.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
- under 16.5odds1.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- under 17.5odds1.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 14.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.10Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:25Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 13.5odds2.52Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.6%
- under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%
- under 15.5odds1.72Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%
- under 16.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: under 14.5 at 1.70 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Provider statistics · StatsGem grading
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 13
- Reconstructed matches
- 13
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 61.7%
- Break-even odds
- 1.62
- Expected value at recommendation
- +1.7%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 61.7% · Break-even odds 1.62. Expected value at recommendation: +1.7%.
At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 13 settled picksand +36.5% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationunder 14.5
Model chance61.7%EV+1.7%UnchangedAt recommendation1.65Closing odds1.65Last captured before kickoffas of 19 Oct, 09:00Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 11.5odds3.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
- under 12.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
- under 13.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- under 15.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
- under 16.5odds1.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- under 17.5odds1.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
BetliveClosing estimateunder 14.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.75Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:53Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 12.5odds2.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- under 13.5odds2.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%
- under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- under 15.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- under 16.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 14.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.70Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 11.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%
- under 12.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
- under 13.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%
- under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- under 15.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
- under 16.5odds1.29Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.6%
- under 17.5odds1.16Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 14.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.10Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:25Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 13.5odds2.52Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.6%
- under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%
- under 15.5odds1.72Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%
- under 16.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: under 14.5 at 1.65 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Provider statistics · StatsGem grading
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 81
- Reconstructed matches
- 81
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 66.9%
- Break-even odds
- 1.49
- Expected value at recommendation
- +10.4%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 66.9% · Break-even odds 1.49. Expected value at recommendation: +10.4%.
At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 81 settled picksand +25.1% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 7.5
Model chance66.9%EV+10.4%UnchangedAt recommendation1.65Closing odds1.65Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:53Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 6.5odds2.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%
- under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- under 8.5odds1.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 7.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.65Last captured before kickoffas of 19 Oct, 09:00Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 5.5odds3.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
- under 6.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- under 8.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
- under 9.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 7.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.60Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 6.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.8%
- under 8.5odds1.36Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 7.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.83Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: under 7.5 at 1.65 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Provider statistics · StatsGem grading
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 11
- Reconstructed matches
- 11
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 63.8%
- Break-even odds
- 1.57
- Expected value at recommendation
- +5.2%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 63.8% · Break-even odds 1.57. Expected value at recommendation: +5.2%.
At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 11 settled picksand +32.7% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationunder 7.5
Model chance63.8%EV+5.2%UnchangedAt recommendation1.65Closing odds1.65Last captured before kickoffas of 19 Oct, 09:00Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 5.5odds3.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
- under 6.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- under 8.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
- under 9.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
BetliveClosing estimateunder 7.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.65Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:53Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 6.5odds2.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%
- under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- under 8.5odds1.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 7.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.60Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 6.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.8%
- under 8.5odds1.36Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 7.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.83Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: under 7.5 at 1.65 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 18
- Reconstructed matches
- 18
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 52.3%
- Break-even odds
- 1.91
- Expected value at recommendation
- +15.1%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 52.3% · Break-even odds 1.91. Expected value at recommendation: +15.1%.
At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 18 settled picksand +10.4% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 4.5
Model chance52.3%EV+15.1%UnchangedAt recommendation2.20Closing odds2.20Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:06Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.1%
- over 1.5odds1.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.3%
- over 2.5odds1.21Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.1%
- over 3.5odds1.54Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.9%
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.0%
- over 5.5odds3.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.7%
- over 6.5odds5.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.7%
- over 7.5odds10.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.3%
- over 8.5odds21.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.8%
- over 9.5odds40.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.9%
- over 10.5odds85.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin—
Bet365Closing estimateover 4.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.30Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 1.5odds1.06Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.1%
- over 2.5odds1.22Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.9%
- over 3.5odds1.57Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.8%
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.4%
- over 5.5odds3.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.4%
- over 6.5odds6.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.6%
- over 7.5odds11.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.3%
- over 8.5odds21.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.3%
Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateover 4.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.28Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.7%
- over 1.5odds1.07Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.4%
- over 2.5odds1.23Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.5%
- over 3.5odds1.57Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.5%
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.7%
- over 5.5odds3.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.0%
- over 6.5odds6.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.9%
- over 7.5odds12.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.6%
- over 8.5odds28.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.7%
BetliveClosing estimateover 4.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.10Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:25Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.2%
- over 1.5odds1.04Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.0%
- over 2.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.4%
- over 3.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%
- over 5.5odds3.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.4%
- over 6.5odds4.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.5%
CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.10Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:40Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 1.5odds1.04Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.0%
- over 2.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.4%
- over 3.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%
- over 5.5odds3.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%
- over 6.5odds4.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.5%
KambiClosing estimateover 4.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.28Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 1.5odds1.04Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.7%
- over 2.5odds1.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.6%
- over 3.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.3%
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.2%
- over 5.5odds3.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.2%
- over 6.5odds6.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.5%
- over 7.5odds11.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.8%
- over 8.5odds21.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin—
LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.10Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:40Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.2%
- over 1.5odds1.04Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.9%
- over 2.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.4%
- over 3.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.2%
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%
- over 5.5odds3.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.4%
- over 6.5odds4.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.3%
- over 190.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 197.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 199.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 200.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 201.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 202.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 203.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 204.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 205.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 206.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 209.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 210.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 216.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 4.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.20Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 1.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 2.5odds1.14Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%
- over 3.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 5.5odds3.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%
- over 6.5odds6.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.7%
- over 7.5odds10.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
PinnacleClosing estimateover 4.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.25Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:45Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.7%
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: over 4.5 at 2.20 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 30
- Reconstructed matches
- 30
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 49.7%
- Break-even odds
- 2.01
- Expected value at recommendation
- +14.2%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 49.7% · Break-even odds 2.01. Expected value at recommendation: +14.2%.
At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 30 settled picksand +5.0% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 4.5
Model chance49.7%EV+14.2%UnchangedAt recommendation2.30Closing odds2.30Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 1.5odds1.06Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.1%
- over 2.5odds1.22Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.9%
- over 3.5odds1.57Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.8%
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.4%
- over 5.5odds3.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.4%
- over 6.5odds6.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.6%
- over 7.5odds11.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.3%
- over 8.5odds21.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.3%
Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateover 4.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.28Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.7%
- over 1.5odds1.07Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.4%
- over 2.5odds1.23Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.5%
- over 3.5odds1.57Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.5%
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.7%
- over 5.5odds3.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.0%
- over 6.5odds6.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.9%
- over 7.5odds12.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.6%
- over 8.5odds28.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.7%
BetliveClosing estimateover 4.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.10Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:25Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.2%
- over 1.5odds1.04Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.0%
- over 2.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.4%
- over 3.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%
- over 5.5odds3.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.4%
- over 6.5odds4.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.5%
CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.10Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:40Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 1.5odds1.04Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.0%
- over 2.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.4%
- over 3.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%
- over 5.5odds3.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%
- over 6.5odds4.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.5%
KambiClosing estimateover 4.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.28Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 1.5odds1.04Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.7%
- over 2.5odds1.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.6%
- over 3.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.3%
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.2%
- over 5.5odds3.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.2%
- over 6.5odds6.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.5%
- over 7.5odds11.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.8%
- over 8.5odds21.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin—
LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.10Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:40Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.2%
- over 1.5odds1.04Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.9%
- over 2.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.4%
- over 3.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.2%
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%
- over 5.5odds3.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.4%
- over 6.5odds4.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.3%
- over 190.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 197.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 199.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 200.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 201.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 202.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 203.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 204.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 205.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 206.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 209.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 210.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 216.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 4.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.20Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 1.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 2.5odds1.14Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%
- over 3.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 5.5odds3.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%
- over 6.5odds6.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.7%
- over 7.5odds10.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
PinnacleClosing estimateover 4.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.25Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:45Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.7%
SuperbetClosing estimateover 4.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.20Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:06Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.1%
- over 1.5odds1.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.3%
- over 2.5odds1.21Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.1%
- over 3.5odds1.54Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.9%
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.0%
- over 5.5odds3.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.7%
- over 6.5odds5.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.7%
- over 7.5odds10.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.3%
- over 8.5odds21.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.8%
- over 9.5odds40.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.9%
- over 10.5odds85.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin—
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:22: over 4.5 at 2.30 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 27
- Reconstructed matches
- 27
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 52.5%
- Break-even odds
- 1.90
- Expected value at recommendation
- +31.3%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 52.5% · Break-even odds 1.90. Expected value at recommendation: +31.3%.
At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 27 settled picksand +9.6% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 2.5
Model chance52.5%EV+31.3%UnchangedAt recommendation2.50Closing odds2.50Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 0.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.8%
- over 1.5odds1.44Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.3%
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.7%
- over 3.5odds5.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.7%
- over 4.5odds11.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.3%
- over 5.5odds26.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.9%
- over 6.5odds51.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.8%
BetliveClosing estimateover 2.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.35Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 0.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%
- over 1.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%
- over 3.5odds4.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.2%
- over 4.5odds7.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%
CrocobetClosing estimateover 2.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.40Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:11Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 0.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%
- over 1.5odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%
- over 3.5odds4.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%
- over 4.5odds7.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.4%
KambiClosing estimateover 2.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.45Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 0.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 1.5odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%
- over 3.5odds4.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%
- over 4.5odds9.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.6%
LiderbetClosing estimateover 2.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.35Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:51Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 0.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%
- over 1.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.2%
- over 3.5odds4.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.2%
- over 4.5odds7.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%
SuperbetClosing estimateover 2.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.50Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 0.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.1%
- over 1.5odds1.49Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.1%
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.1%
- over 3.5odds4.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.8%
- over 4.5odds9.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.5%
- over 5.5odds22.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.9%
- over 6.5odds55.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin—
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:22: over 2.5 at 2.50 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 15
- Reconstructed matches
- 15
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 44.1%
- Break-even odds
- 2.27
- Expected value at recommendation
- +3.7%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 44.1% · Break-even odds 2.27. Expected value at recommendation: +3.7%.
At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 15 settled picksand +0.2% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 2.5
Model chance44.1%EV+3.7%UnchangedAt recommendation2.35Closing odds2.35Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:51Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 0.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%
- over 1.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.2%
- over 3.5odds4.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.2%
- over 4.5odds7.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%
Bet365Closing estimateover 2.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.50Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 0.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.8%
- over 1.5odds1.44Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.3%
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.7%
- over 3.5odds5.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.7%
- over 4.5odds11.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.3%
- over 5.5odds26.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.9%
- over 6.5odds51.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.8%
BetliveClosing estimateover 2.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.35Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 0.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%
- over 1.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%
- over 3.5odds4.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.2%
- over 4.5odds7.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%
CrocobetClosing estimateover 2.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.40Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:11Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 0.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%
- over 1.5odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%
- over 3.5odds4.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%
- over 4.5odds7.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.4%
KambiClosing estimateover 2.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.45Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 0.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 1.5odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%
- over 3.5odds4.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%
- over 4.5odds9.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.6%
SuperbetClosing estimateover 2.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.50Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 0.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.1%
- over 1.5odds1.49Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.1%
- over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.1%
- over 3.5odds4.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.8%
- over 4.5odds9.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.5%
- over 5.5odds22.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.9%
- over 6.5odds55.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin—
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:53: over 2.5 at 2.35 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
This recorded pick has a result.
- Model chance at recommendation
- 58.8%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.70
- Expected value at recommendation
- +29.5%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 58.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.70. Expected value at recommendation: +29.5%.
At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 280 settled picksand +9.7% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 32.5
Model chance58.8%EV+29.5%Odds down−0.42At recommendation2.20Closing odds1.78Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 28.5odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%
- over 29.5odds1.34Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 30.5odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.7%
- over 31.5odds1.62Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%
- over 32.5odds1.78Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%
- over 33.5odds2.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%
- over 34.5odds2.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 35.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%
- over 36.5odds3.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%
Bet365Closing estimateover 31.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds—Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 31.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.1%
BetliveClosing estimateover 31.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.50Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:51Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 26.5odds1.27Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 27.5odds1.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
- over 28.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%
- over 29.5odds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 30.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 31.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%
- over 32.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- over 33.5odds2.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
CrocobetClosing estimateover 31.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.45Last captured before kickoffas of 19 Oct, 09:00Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 26.5odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
- over 27.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
- over 28.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 29.5odds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 30.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 31.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 32.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
- over 33.5odds2.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 34.5odds3.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
KambiClosing estimateover 31.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.12Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 27.5odds1.36Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%
- over 28.5odds1.38Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.9%
- over 29.5odds1.52Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.6%
- over 30.5odds1.68Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 31.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.88Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.0%
- over 32.5odds2.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%
- over 33.5odds2.43Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 34.5odds2.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.9%
- over 35.5odds3.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
LiderbetClosing estimateover 31.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.55Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 26.5odds1.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 27.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
- over 28.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%
- over 29.5odds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 30.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 31.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 32.5odds2.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
Recommendation record
Recorded 18 Oct, 13:00: over 32.5 at 2.20 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 20:09. The original pick remains in the results.
Provider statistics · StatsGem grading
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 11
- Reconstructed matches
- 11
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 57.2%
- Break-even odds
- 1.75
- Expected value at recommendation
- +4.9%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 57.2% · Break-even odds 1.75. Expected value at recommendation: +4.9%.
At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 11 settled picksand +14.8% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 31.5
Model chance57.2%EV+4.9%UnchangedAt recommendation1.83Closing odds1.83Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 31.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.1%
BetliveClosing estimateover 31.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.15Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:51Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 26.5odds1.27Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 27.5odds1.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
- over 28.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%
- over 29.5odds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 30.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 31.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%
- over 32.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- over 33.5odds2.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
CrocobetClosing estimateover 31.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.10Last captured before kickoffas of 19 Oct, 09:00Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 26.5odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
- over 27.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
- over 28.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 29.5odds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 30.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 31.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 32.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
- over 33.5odds2.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 34.5odds3.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
KambiClosing estimateover 31.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.88Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 27.5odds1.36Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%
- over 28.5odds1.38Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.9%
- over 29.5odds1.52Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.6%
- over 30.5odds1.68Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 31.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.88Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.0%
- over 32.5odds2.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%
- over 33.5odds2.43Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 34.5odds2.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.9%
- over 35.5odds3.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
LiderbetClosing estimateover 31.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.20Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 26.5odds1.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 27.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
- over 28.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%
- over 29.5odds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 30.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 31.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 32.5odds2.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
SuperbetClosing estimateover 31.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.62Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 28.5odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%
- over 29.5odds1.34Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 30.5odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.7%
- over 31.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.62Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%
- over 32.5odds1.78Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%
- over 33.5odds2.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%
- over 34.5odds2.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 35.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%
- over 36.5odds3.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:22: over 31.5 at 1.83 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
This recorded pick has a result.
- Model chance at recommendation
- 67.3%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.49
- Expected value at recommendation
- +31.2%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 67.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.49. Expected value at recommendation: +31.2%.
At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 201 settled picksand +6.3% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 16.5
Model chance67.3%EV+31.2%Odds down−0.13At recommendation1.95Closing odds1.82Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:45Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 13.5odds1.29Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%
- over 14.5odds1.42Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%
- over 15.5odds1.59Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%
- over 16.5odds1.82Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%
- over 17.5odds2.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%
- over 18.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 19.5odds3.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
Bet365Closing estimateover 15.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds—Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%
BetliveClosing estimateover 15.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.25Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:51Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 13.5odds1.38Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%
- over 14.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%
- over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- over 16.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 17.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
CrocobetClosing estimateover 15.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.20Last captured before kickoffas of 19 Oct, 09:00Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 12.5odds1.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- over 13.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
- over 14.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- over 16.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 17.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%
- over 18.5odds3.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
KambiClosing estimateover 15.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.90Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 14.5odds1.72Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%
- over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.66Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 16.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 17.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
LiderbetClosing estimateover 15.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.30Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 13.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 14.5odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%
- over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 16.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
Recommendation record
Recorded 18 Oct, 15:01: over 16.5 at 1.95 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 20:09. The original pick remains in the results.
Provider statistics · StatsGem grading
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 10
- Reconstructed matches
- 10
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 65.8%
- Break-even odds
- 1.52
- Expected value at recommendation
- +19.7%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 65.8% · Break-even odds 1.52. Expected value at recommendation: +19.7%.
At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 10 settled picksand +28.6% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 16.5
Model chance65.8%EV+19.7%UnchangedAt recommendation1.82Closing odds1.82Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:45Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 13.5odds1.29Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%
- over 14.5odds1.42Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%
- over 15.5odds1.59Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%
- over 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.82Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%
- over 17.5odds2.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%
- over 18.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 19.5odds3.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
Bet365Closing estimateover 15.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds—Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%
BetliveClosing estimateover 15.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.25Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:51Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 13.5odds1.38Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%
- over 14.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%
- over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- over 16.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 17.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
CrocobetClosing estimateover 15.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.20Last captured before kickoffas of 19 Oct, 09:00Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 12.5odds1.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- over 13.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
- over 14.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- over 16.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 17.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%
- over 18.5odds3.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
KambiClosing estimateover 15.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.90Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 14.5odds1.72Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%
- over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.66Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 16.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 17.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
LiderbetClosing estimateover 15.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.30Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 13.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 14.5odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%
- over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 16.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: over 16.5 at 1.82 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Provider statistics · StatsGem grading
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 11
- Reconstructed matches
- 11
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 59.5%
- Break-even odds
- 1.68
- Expected value at recommendation
- +10.1%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 59.5% · Break-even odds 1.68. Expected value at recommendation: +10.1%.
At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 11 settled picksand +7.2% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationover 15.5
Model chance59.5%EV+10.1%UnchangedAt recommendation1.85Closing odds1.85Last captured before kickoffas of 19 Oct, 09:00Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 12.5odds1.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- over 13.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
- over 14.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- over 16.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 17.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%
- over 18.5odds3.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
Bet365Closing estimateover 15.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.73Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%
BetliveClosing estimateover 15.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.85Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:51Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 13.5odds1.38Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%
- over 14.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%
- over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- over 16.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 17.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
KambiClosing estimateover 15.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.66Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 14.5odds1.72Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%
- over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.66Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 16.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 17.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
LiderbetClosing estimateover 15.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.90Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 13.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 14.5odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%
- over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 16.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
SuperbetClosing estimateover 15.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.59Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:45Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 13.5odds1.29Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%
- over 14.5odds1.42Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%
- over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.59Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%
- over 16.5odds1.82Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%
- over 17.5odds2.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%
- over 18.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 19.5odds3.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: over 15.5 at 1.85 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Provider statistics · StatsGem grading
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 9
- Reconstructed matches
- 9
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 58.5%
- Break-even odds
- 1.71
- Expected value at recommendation
- +1.1%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 58.5% · Break-even odds 1.71. Expected value at recommendation: +1.1%.
At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 9 settled picksand +41.3% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 15.5
Model chance58.5%EV+1.1%UnchangedAt recommendation1.73Closing odds1.73Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%
BetliveClosing estimateover 15.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.85Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:51Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 13.5odds1.38Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%
- over 14.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%
- over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- over 16.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 17.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
CrocobetClosing estimateover 15.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.85Last captured before kickoffas of 19 Oct, 09:00Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 12.5odds1.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- over 13.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
- over 14.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- over 16.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 17.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%
- over 18.5odds3.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
KambiClosing estimateover 15.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.66Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 14.5odds1.72Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%
- over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.66Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 16.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 17.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
LiderbetClosing estimateover 15.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.90Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 13.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 14.5odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%
- over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 16.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
SuperbetClosing estimateover 15.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.59Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:45Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 13.5odds1.29Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%
- over 14.5odds1.42Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%
- over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.59Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%
- over 16.5odds1.82Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%
- over 17.5odds2.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%
- over 18.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 19.5odds3.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:22: over 15.5 at 1.73 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
This recorded pick has a result.
- Model chance at recommendation
- 60.0%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.67
- Expected value at recommendation
- +27.2%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 60.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.67. Expected value at recommendation: +27.2%.
At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 230 settled picksand +1.3% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 12.5
Model chance60.0%EV+27.2%Odds up+0.08At recommendation2.12Closing odds2.20Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 7.5odds1.04Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 8.5odds1.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 9.5odds1.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.5%
- over 10.5odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 11.5odds1.77Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%
- over 12.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 13.5odds2.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%
- over 14.5odds3.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 15.5odds5.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%
BetliveClosing estimateover 11.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.75Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 07:47Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 9.5odds1.27Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 10.5odds1.29Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 12.5odds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- over 13.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 14.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
CrocobetClosing estimateover 11.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.75Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:55Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 8.5odds1.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 9.5odds1.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 10.5odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
- over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
- over 12.5odds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- over 13.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 14.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
- over 15.5odds3.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
KambiClosing estimateover 11.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.20Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 8.5odds1.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 9.5odds1.26Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%
- over 10.5odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.76Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- over 12.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.8%
- over 13.5odds2.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 14.5odds3.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
- over 15.5odds4.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.6%
- over 16.5odds4.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.6%
LiderbetClosing estimateover 11.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.75Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 8.5odds1.14Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 9.5odds1.16Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%
- over 10.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 12.5odds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.7%
- over 13.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 14.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
- over 15.5odds3.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
Recommendation record
Recorded 18 Oct, 13:00: over 12.5 at 2.12 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 20:09. The original pick remains in the results.
Provider statistics · StatsGem grading
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 179
- Reconstructed matches
- 175
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 62.2%
- Break-even odds
- 1.61
- Expected value at recommendation
- +5.8%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 62.2% · Break-even odds 1.61. Expected value at recommendation: +5.8%.
At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 179 settled picksand -1.4% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 11.5
Model chance62.2%EV+5.8%Odds up+0.07At recommendation1.70Closing odds1.77Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 7.5odds1.04Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 8.5odds1.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 9.5odds1.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.5%
- over 10.5odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 11.5odds1.77Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%
- over 12.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 13.5odds2.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%
- over 14.5odds3.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 15.5odds5.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%
BetliveClosing estimateover 11.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.48Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 07:47Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 9.5odds1.27Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 10.5odds1.29Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 12.5odds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- over 13.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 14.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
CrocobetClosing estimateover 11.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.45Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:55Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 8.5odds1.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 9.5odds1.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 10.5odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
- over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
- over 12.5odds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- over 13.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 14.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
- over 15.5odds3.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
KambiClosing estimateover 11.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.76Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 8.5odds1.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 9.5odds1.26Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%
- over 10.5odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.76Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- over 12.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.8%
- over 13.5odds2.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 14.5odds3.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
- over 15.5odds4.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.6%
- over 16.5odds4.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.6%
LiderbetClosing estimateover 11.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.50Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 8.5odds1.14Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 9.5odds1.16Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%
- over 10.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 12.5odds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.7%
- over 13.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 14.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
- over 15.5odds3.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: over 11.5 at 1.70 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
This recorded pick has a result.
- Model chance at recommendation
- 52.4%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.91
- Expected value at recommendation
- +16.9%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 52.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.91. Expected value at recommendation: +16.9%.
At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 96 settled picksand +0.7% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
- Bet365At recommendationover 6.5Model chance52.4%EV+10.1%No closing quote capturedAt recommendation2.10Closing odds—
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 6.5
Model chance52.4%EV+16.9%Odds up+0.02At recommendation2.23Closing odds2.25Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 3.5odds1.11Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
- over 4.5odds1.32Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.8%
- over 5.5odds1.67Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- over 6.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 8.5odds4.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds—Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 00:15Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.41Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.9%
BetliveClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.90Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 07:47Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 4.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 6.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.85Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:55Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 3.5odds1.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 4.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
- over 6.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- over 7.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
- over 8.5odds3.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
LiderbetClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.85Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 4.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.4%
- over 6.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.9%
- over 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
SuperbetClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.22Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:51Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 2.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.7%
- over 3.5odds1.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%
- over 4.5odds1.34Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.66Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%
- over 6.5odds2.22Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%
- over 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.5%
- over 8.5odds4.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%
Recommendation record
Recorded 18 Oct, 13:01: over 6.5 at 2.23 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 20:09. The original pick remains in the results.
Provider statistics · StatsGem grading
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 33
- Reconstructed matches
- 33
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 63.5%
- Break-even odds
- 1.57
- Expected value at recommendation
- +20.7%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 63.5% · Break-even odds 1.57. Expected value at recommendation: +20.7%.
At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 33 settled picksand +14.0% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 6.5
Model chance63.5%EV+20.7%UnchangedAt recommendation1.90Closing odds1.90Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 07:47Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 4.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 5.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds—Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 00:15Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.41Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.9%
CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.85Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:55Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 3.5odds1.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 4.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
- over 6.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- over 7.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
- over 8.5odds3.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
KambiClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.25Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 3.5odds1.11Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
- over 4.5odds1.32Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.8%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.67Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- over 6.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 8.5odds4.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
LiderbetClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.85Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 4.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.4%
- over 6.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.9%
- over 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
SuperbetClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.22Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:51Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 2.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.7%
- over 3.5odds1.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%
- over 4.5odds1.34Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.66Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%
- over 6.5odds2.22Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%
- over 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.5%
- over 8.5odds4.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: over 6.5 at 1.90 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Provider statistics · StatsGem grading
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 149
- Reconstructed matches
- 145
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 49.8%
- Break-even odds
- 2.01
- Expected value at recommendation
- +5.6%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 49.8% · Break-even odds 2.01. Expected value at recommendation: +5.6%.
At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 149 settled picksand +1.4% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 6.5
Model chance49.8%EV+5.6%Odds up+0.10At recommendation2.12Closing odds2.22Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:51Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 2.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.7%
- over 3.5odds1.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%
- over 4.5odds1.34Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 5.5odds1.66Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%
- over 6.5odds2.22Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%
- over 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.5%
- over 8.5odds4.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds—Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 00:15Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.41Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.9%
BetliveClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.90Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 07:47Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 4.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 6.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.85Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:55Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 3.5odds1.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 4.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
- over 6.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- over 7.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
- over 8.5odds3.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
KambiClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.25Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 3.5odds1.11Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
- over 4.5odds1.32Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.8%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.67Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- over 6.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 8.5odds4.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
LiderbetClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.85Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 4.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.4%
- over 6.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.9%
- over 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: over 6.5 at 2.12 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Stopped being recommended 20 Oct, 12:44. The original pick remains in the results.
Provider statistics · StatsGem grading
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 6
- Reconstructed matches
- 6
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 54.2%
- Break-even odds
- 1.84
- Expected value at recommendation
- +0.3%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 54.2% · Break-even odds 1.84. Expected value at recommendation: +0.3%.
At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 6 settled picksand +75.0% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 6.5
Model chance54.2%EV+0.3%UnchangedAt recommendation1.85Closing odds1.85Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 4.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 5.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.4%
- over 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.9%
- over 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds—Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 00:15Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.41Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.9%
BetliveClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.90Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 07:47Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 4.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 6.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.85Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:55Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 3.5odds1.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 4.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
- over 6.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- over 7.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
- over 8.5odds3.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
KambiClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.25Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 3.5odds1.11Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
- over 4.5odds1.32Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.8%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.67Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- over 6.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 8.5odds4.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
SuperbetClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.22Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:51Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 2.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.7%
- over 3.5odds1.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%
- over 4.5odds1.34Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.66Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%
- over 6.5odds2.22Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%
- over 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.5%
- over 8.5odds4.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: over 6.5 at 1.85 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Provider statistics · StatsGem grading
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 149
- Reconstructed matches
- 147
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 48.3%
- Break-even odds
- 2.07
- Expected value at recommendation
- +1.5%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 48.3% · Break-even odds 2.07. Expected value at recommendation: +1.5%.
At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 149 settled picksand +0.9% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
- Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 6.5Model chance48.3%EV+1.5%No closing quote capturedAt recommendation2.10Closing odds—
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds—Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 00:15Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.41Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.9%
BetliveClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.90Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 07:47Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 4.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 6.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.85Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:55Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 3.5odds1.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 4.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
- over 6.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- over 7.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
- over 8.5odds3.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
KambiClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.25Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 3.5odds1.11Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
- over 4.5odds1.32Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.8%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.67Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- over 6.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 8.5odds4.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
LiderbetClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.85Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 4.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.4%
- over 6.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.9%
- over 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
SuperbetClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.22Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:51Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 2.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.7%
- over 3.5odds1.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%
- over 4.5odds1.34Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.66Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%
- over 6.5odds2.22Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%
- over 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.5%
- over 8.5odds4.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:22: over 6.5 at 2.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Provider statistics · StatsGem grading
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 149
- Reconstructed matches
- 145
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 62.0%
- Break-even odds
- 1.61
- Expected value at recommendation
- +2.4%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 62.0% · Break-even odds 1.61. Expected value at recommendation: +2.4%.
At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 149 settled picksand +1.4% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 5.5
Model chance62.0%EV+2.4%Odds up+0.01At recommendation1.65Closing odds1.66Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:51Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 2.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.7%
- over 3.5odds1.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%
- over 4.5odds1.34Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%
- over 5.5odds1.66Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%
- over 6.5odds2.22Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%
- over 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.5%
- over 8.5odds4.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.41Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 00:15Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.41Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.9%
BetliveClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.48Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 07:47Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 4.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 6.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- over 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.45Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:55Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 3.5odds1.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%
- over 4.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
- over 6.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- over 7.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
- over 8.5odds3.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
KambiClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.67Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 3.5odds1.11Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
- over 4.5odds1.32Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.8%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.67Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- over 6.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- over 8.5odds4.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%
LiderbetClosing estimateover 5.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.45Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 4.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.4%
- over 6.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.9%
- over 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:45: over 5.5 at 1.65 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Provider statistics · StatsGem grading
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 17
- Reconstructed matches
- 17
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 67.2%
- Break-even odds
- 1.49
- Expected value at recommendation
- +20.9%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 67.2% · Break-even odds 1.49. Expected value at recommendation: +20.9%.
At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 17 settled picksand +60.0% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationunder 32.5
Model chance67.2%EV+20.9%UnchangedAt recommendation1.80Closing odds1.80Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 01:18Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 29.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
- under 30.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- under 31.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- under 32.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- under 33.5odds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- under 34.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- under 35.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
BetliveClosing estimateunder 32.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.70Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:53Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 29.5odds2.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%
- under 30.5odds2.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%
- under 31.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- under 32.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- under 33.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%
- under 34.5odds1.39Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 32.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.75Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 28.5odds2.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
- under 29.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%
- under 30.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- under 31.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- under 32.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.7%
- under 33.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- under 34.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.1%
- under 35.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: under 32.5 at 1.80 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Provider statistics · StatsGem grading
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 15
- Reconstructed matches
- 15
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 66.4%
- Break-even odds
- 1.51
- Expected value at recommendation
- +16.1%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 66.4% · Break-even odds 1.51. Expected value at recommendation: +16.1%.
At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 15 settled picksand +52.3% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 32.5
Model chance66.4%EV+16.1%UnchangedAt recommendation1.75Closing odds1.75Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 28.5odds2.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%
- under 29.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%
- under 30.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- under 31.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- under 32.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.7%
- under 33.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- under 34.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.1%
- under 35.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
BetliveClosing estimateunder 32.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.70Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:53Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 29.5odds2.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%
- under 30.5odds2.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%
- under 31.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- under 32.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%
- under 33.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%
- under 34.5odds1.39Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 32.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.80Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 01:18Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 29.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
- under 30.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- under 31.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- under 32.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- under 33.5odds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- under 34.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
- under 35.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: under 32.5 at 1.75 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Provider statistics · StatsGem grading
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 12
- Reconstructed matches
- 12
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 75.5%
- Break-even odds
- 1.32
- Expected value at recommendation
- +32.1%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 75.5% · Break-even odds 1.32. Expected value at recommendation: +32.1%.
At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 12 settled picksand +68.8% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationunder 16.5
Model chance75.5%EV+32.1%UnchangedAt recommendation1.75Closing odds1.75Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 07:21Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 14.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
- under 15.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- under 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- under 17.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
BetliveClosing estimateunder 16.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.75Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:53Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 14.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- under 15.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%
- under 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- under 17.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: under 16.5 at 1.75 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Provider statistics · StatsGem grading
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed
Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.
More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.
- Unseen matches
- 0
- Validation rounds
- 0
Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.
- Earlier matches
- 8
- Reconstructed matches
- 8
- Lineup
- Official
- Quality calibration
- Not yet measured
- Forecast stability
- Not yet measured
This recorded pick has a result.
- Estimated chance
- 57.8%
- Break-even odds
- 1.73
- Expected value at recommendation
- +1.2%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.
Model chance at recommendation 57.8% · Break-even odds 1.73. Expected value at recommendation: +1.2%.
At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 8 settled picksand +82.5% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 16.5
Model chance57.8%EV+1.2%UnchangedAt recommendation1.75Closing odds1.75Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:53Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 14.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- under 15.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%
- under 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- under 17.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 16.5
Model chance—EV—No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.75Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 07:21Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 14.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%
- under 15.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%
- under 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%
- under 17.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%
Recommendation record
Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: under 16.5 at 1.75 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Predictions