Paris Saint-Germain vs Barcelona — UEFA Champions League

UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 26/27

Tue 20 Oct··Matchday 3·Parc des Princes·Paris Saint-Germain won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time
  • 2Corners3
  • 0Cards1
  • 22Shots18
  • 15Shots on target5
  • 11Fouls10
  • 18Throw-ins10
  • 2Offsides1
  • 8Goal kicks3
  • 3Saves10
  • 17Tackles9
  • 14Interceptions12
  • 4Dribbles9
0Free available0VIP available16Recorded Free16Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match
Paris Saint-GermainvBarcelonaUEFA Champions League30 won / 2 lost · +25.13u · 32 picks

Corners · match total

Open match →VIPLost

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
10
Reconstructed matches
10
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

over 9.5Actual: 5−1.00u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.83
Closing odds1.78
Odds down−0.05
Estimated chance
64.2%
Break-even odds
1.56
Expected value at recommendation
+17.6%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 64.2% · Break-even odds 1.56. Expected value at recommendation: +17.6%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 10 settled picksand +69.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 9.5
    At recommendation1.83
    Closing odds1.78
    Odds down−0.05
    Model chance64.2%EV+17.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.1%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.01Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.1%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds1.03Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.4%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.9%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds1.17Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.7%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds1.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.2%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.2%Model unavailable
    • over 9.5odds1.78Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.5%Model unavailable
    • over 10.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.8%Model unavailable
    • over 11.5odds2.77Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.0%Model unavailable
    • over 12.5odds3.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.9%Model unavailable
    • over 13.5odds4.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.7%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds6.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.8%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5odds8.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.4%Model unavailable
    • over 16.5odds12.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.4%Model unavailable
    • over 17.5odds16.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.3%Model unavailable
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 9.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.83
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.1%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 9.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.75
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:07

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds1.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds1.24Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.7%Model unavailable
    • over 10.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 11.5odds2.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 12.5odds3.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
    • over 13.5odds5.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 9.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.75
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5odds1.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds1.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds1.44Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%Model unavailable
    • over 10.5odds2.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.0%Model unavailable
    • over 11.5odds2.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 12.5odds4.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 13.5odds5.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds7.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
  • KambiClosing estimateover 9.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.70
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 6.5odds1.11Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds1.23Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.1%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds1.42Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.9%Model unavailable
    • over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.8%Model unavailable
    • over 10.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.0%Model unavailable
    • over 11.5odds2.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.5%Model unavailable
    • over 12.5odds3.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.2%Model unavailable
    • over 13.5odds4.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 9.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.70
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:51

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.7%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.6%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds1.24Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.9%Model unavailable
    • over 10.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 11.5odds2.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • over 12.5odds4.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 13.5odds5.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 9.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.2%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds1.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.7%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds1.11Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailable
    • over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailable
    • over 10.5odds2.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailable
    • over 11.5odds3.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailable
    • over 12.5odds4.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailable
    • over 13.5odds7.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.7%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds9.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5odds13.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.2%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: over 9.5 at 1.83 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Fouls · match total

Open match →VIPWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
45
Reconstructed matches
45
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 22.5Actual: 21+0.75u on one unit
Betliverecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.75
Closing odds1.75
Unchanged
Estimated chance
63.7%
Break-even odds
1.57
Expected value at recommendation
+11.5%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 63.7% · Break-even odds 1.57. Expected value at recommendation: +11.5%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 45 settled picksand +29.6% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 22.5
    At recommendation1.75
    Closing odds1.75
    Unchanged
    Model chance63.7%EV+11.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 07:47

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 19.5odds2.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 20.5odds2.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 21.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • under 22.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • under 23.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 24.5odds1.38Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%Model unavailable
    • under 25.5odds1.27Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 22.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.80
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:55

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 18.5odds4.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 19.5odds2.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 20.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • under 21.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • under 22.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 23.5odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • under 24.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • under 25.5odds1.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 26.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 22.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.80
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 18.5odds3.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 19.5odds2.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 20.5odds2.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.1%Model unavailable
    • under 21.5odds2.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%Model unavailable
    • under 22.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 23.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 24.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • under 25.5odds1.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
  • SuperbetClosing estimateunder 22.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.67
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 20.5odds2.27Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.3%Model unavailable
    • under 21.5odds1.92Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.9%Model unavailable
    • under 22.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.67Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.9%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: under 22.5 at 1.75 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Fouls · Paris Saint-Germain total

Open match →VIPWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
57
Reconstructed matches
56
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 11.5Actual: 11+0.80u on one unit
Betliverecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.80
Closing odds1.80
Unchanged
Estimated chance
68.3%
Break-even odds
1.47
Expected value at recommendation
+22.9%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 68.3% · Break-even odds 1.47. Expected value at recommendation: +22.9%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 57 settled picksand +35.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 11.5
    At recommendation1.80
    Closing odds1.80
    Unchanged
    Model chance68.3%EV+22.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 07:47

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 10.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 12.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 10.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:55

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 8.5odds4.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • under 9.5odds3.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • under 11.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • under 12.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 13.5odds1.33Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailable
    • under 14.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 10.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 11.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • under 12.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%Model unavailable
  • SuperbetClosing estimateunder 10.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds—
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:13

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 9.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.5%Model unavailable
    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.88Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.0%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: under 11.5 at 1.80 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Fouls · Paris Saint-Germain total

Open match →FreeLost

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
188
Reconstructed matches
184
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 10.5Actual: 11−1.00u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.88
Closing odds1.88
Unchanged
Estimated chance
53.6%
Break-even odds
1.87
Expected value at recommendation
+0.7%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 53.6% · Break-even odds 1.87. Expected value at recommendation: +0.7%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 188 settled picksand +1.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 10.5
    At recommendation1.88
    Closing odds1.88
    Unchanged
    Model chance53.6%EV+0.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:13

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 9.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.5%Model unavailable
    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.88Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.0%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 10.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.25
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 07:47

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 11.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 12.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 10.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.30
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:55

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 8.5odds4.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • under 9.5odds3.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • under 11.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • under 12.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 13.5odds1.33Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailable
    • under 14.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 10.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.25
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 11.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • under 12.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: under 10.5 at 1.88 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goal kicks · match total

Open match →VIPWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
14
Reconstructed matches
14
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 15.5Actual: 11+0.73u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.73
Closing odds1.72
Odds down−0.01
Estimated chance
64.1%
Break-even odds
1.56
Expected value at recommendation
+10.9%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 64.1% · Break-even odds 1.56. Expected value at recommendation: +10.9%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 14 settled picksand +25.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 15.5
    At recommendation1.73
    Closing odds1.72
    Odds down−0.01
    Model chance64.1%EV+10.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 13.5odds2.52Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.6%Model unavailable
    • under 14.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailable
    • under 15.5odds1.72Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailable
    • under 16.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 14.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.48
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:53

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 12.5odds2.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 13.5odds2.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%Model unavailable
    • under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • under 15.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 16.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 14.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.45
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 19 Oct, 09:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 11.5odds3.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
    • under 12.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • under 13.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • under 15.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • under 16.5odds1.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 17.5odds1.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 14.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.45
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 11.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%Model unavailable
    • under 12.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • under 13.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • under 15.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • under 16.5odds1.29Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.6%Model unavailable
    • under 17.5odds1.16Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: under 15.5 at 1.73 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goal kicks · match total

Open match →VIPWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
42
Reconstructed matches
42
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 14.5Actual: 11+0.75u on one unit
Betliverecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.75
Closing odds1.75
Unchanged
Estimated chance
63.2%
Break-even odds
1.58
Expected value at recommendation
+10.7%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 63.2% · Break-even odds 1.58. Expected value at recommendation: +10.7%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 42 settled picksand +20.6% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 14.5
    At recommendation1.75
    Closing odds1.75
    Unchanged
    Model chance63.2%EV+10.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:53

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 12.5odds2.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 13.5odds2.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%Model unavailable
    • under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • under 15.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 16.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 14.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.65
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 19 Oct, 09:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 11.5odds3.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
    • under 12.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • under 13.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • under 15.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • under 16.5odds1.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 17.5odds1.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 14.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.70
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 11.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%Model unavailable
    • under 12.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • under 13.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • under 15.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • under 16.5odds1.29Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.6%Model unavailable
    • under 17.5odds1.16Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
  • SuperbetClosing estimateunder 14.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.10
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 13.5odds2.52Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.6%Model unavailable
    • under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailable
    • under 15.5odds1.72Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailable
    • under 16.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: under 14.5 at 1.75 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goal kicks · match total

Open match →FreeWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
10
Reconstructed matches
10
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 14.5Actual: 11+0.70u on one unit
Liderbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.70
Closing odds1.70
Unchanged
Estimated chance
63.4%
Break-even odds
1.58
Expected value at recommendation
+7.8%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 63.4% · Break-even odds 1.58. Expected value at recommendation: +7.8%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 10 settled picksand +55.0% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 14.5
    At recommendation1.70
    Closing odds1.70
    Unchanged
    Model chance63.4%EV+7.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 11.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%Model unavailable
    • under 12.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • under 13.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • under 15.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • under 16.5odds1.29Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.6%Model unavailable
    • under 17.5odds1.16Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 14.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.75
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:53

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 12.5odds2.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 13.5odds2.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%Model unavailable
    • under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • under 15.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 16.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 14.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.65
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 19 Oct, 09:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 11.5odds3.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
    • under 12.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • under 13.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • under 15.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • under 16.5odds1.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 17.5odds1.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
  • SuperbetClosing estimateunder 14.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.10
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 13.5odds2.52Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.6%Model unavailable
    • under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailable
    • under 15.5odds1.72Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailable
    • under 16.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: under 14.5 at 1.70 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goal kicks · match total

Open match →FreeWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
13
Reconstructed matches
13
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 14.5Actual: 11+0.65u on one unit
Crocobetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.65
Closing odds1.65
Unchanged
Estimated chance
61.7%
Break-even odds
1.62
Expected value at recommendation
+1.7%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 61.7% · Break-even odds 1.62. Expected value at recommendation: +1.7%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 13 settled picksand +36.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationunder 14.5
    At recommendation1.65
    Closing odds1.65
    Unchanged
    Model chance61.7%EV+1.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 19 Oct, 09:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 11.5odds3.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
    • under 12.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • under 13.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • under 15.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • under 16.5odds1.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 17.5odds1.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 14.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.75
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:53

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 12.5odds2.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 13.5odds2.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%Model unavailable
    • under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • under 15.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • under 16.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 14.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.70
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 11.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%Model unavailable
    • under 12.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • under 13.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • under 15.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • under 16.5odds1.29Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.6%Model unavailable
    • under 17.5odds1.16Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
  • SuperbetClosing estimateunder 14.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.10
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 13.5odds2.52Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.6%Model unavailable
    • under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailable
    • under 15.5odds1.72Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailable
    • under 16.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: under 14.5 at 1.65 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goal kicks · Barcelona total

Open match →VIPWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
81
Reconstructed matches
81
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 7.5Actual: 3+0.65u on one unit
Betliverecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.65
Closing odds1.65
Unchanged
Estimated chance
66.9%
Break-even odds
1.49
Expected value at recommendation
+10.4%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 66.9% · Break-even odds 1.49. Expected value at recommendation: +10.4%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 81 settled picksand +25.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 7.5
    At recommendation1.65
    Closing odds1.65
    Unchanged
    Model chance66.9%EV+10.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:53

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 6.5odds2.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%Model unavailable
    • under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • under 8.5odds1.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 7.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.65
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 19 Oct, 09:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 5.5odds3.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
    • under 6.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • under 8.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • under 9.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 7.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.60
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 6.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.8%Model unavailable
    • under 8.5odds1.36Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
  • SuperbetClosing estimateunder 7.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.83
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: under 7.5 at 1.65 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goal kicks · Barcelona total

Open match →FreeWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
11
Reconstructed matches
11
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 7.5Actual: 3+0.65u on one unit
Crocobetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.65
Closing odds1.65
Unchanged
Estimated chance
63.8%
Break-even odds
1.57
Expected value at recommendation
+5.2%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 63.8% · Break-even odds 1.57. Expected value at recommendation: +5.2%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 11 settled picksand +32.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationunder 7.5
    At recommendation1.65
    Closing odds1.65
    Unchanged
    Model chance63.8%EV+5.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 19 Oct, 09:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 5.5odds3.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
    • under 6.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • under 8.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • under 9.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 7.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.65
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:53

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 6.5odds2.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%Model unavailable
    • under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • under 8.5odds1.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 7.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.60
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 6.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.8%Model unavailable
    • under 8.5odds1.36Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
  • SuperbetClosing estimateunder 7.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.83
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: under 7.5 at 1.65 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goals · match total

Open match →VIPWon
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
18
Reconstructed matches
18
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

over 4.5Actual: 6+1.20u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds2.20
Unchanged
Estimated chance
52.3%
Break-even odds
1.91
Expected value at recommendation
+15.1%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 52.3% · Break-even odds 1.91. Expected value at recommendation: +15.1%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 18 settled picksand +10.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 4.5
    At recommendation2.20
    Closing odds2.20
    Unchanged
    Model chance52.3%EV+15.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:06

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.1%Model unavailable
    • over 1.5odds1.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.3%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5odds1.21Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.1%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.54Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.9%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.0%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds3.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.7%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds5.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.7%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds10.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.3%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds21.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.8%Model unavailable
    • over 9.5odds40.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.9%Model unavailable
    • over 10.5odds85.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin—Model unavailable
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.30
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 1.5odds1.06Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.1%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5odds1.22Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.9%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.57Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.8%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.4%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds3.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.4%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds6.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.6%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds11.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.3%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds21.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.3%Model unavailable
  • Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.28
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.7%Model unavailable
    • over 1.5odds1.07Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.4%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5odds1.23Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.5%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.57Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.5%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.7%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds3.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.0%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds6.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.9%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds12.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.6%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds28.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.7%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.10
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.2%Model unavailable
    • over 1.5odds1.04Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.0%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.4%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds3.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.4%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds4.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.5%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.10
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 1.5odds1.04Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.0%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.4%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds3.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds4.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.5%Model unavailable
  • KambiClosing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.28
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 1.5odds1.04Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.7%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5odds1.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.6%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.3%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.2%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds3.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.2%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds6.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.5%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds11.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.8%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds21.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin—Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.10
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.2%Model unavailable
    • over 1.5odds1.04Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.9%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.4%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.2%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds3.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.4%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds4.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.3%Model unavailable
    • over 190.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 197.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 199.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 200.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 201.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 202.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 203.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 204.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 205.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 206.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 209.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 210.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 216.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.20
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 1.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5odds1.14Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds3.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds6.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.7%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds10.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
  • PinnacleClosing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.25
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:45

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.7%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: over 4.5 at 2.20 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goals · match total

Open match →VIPWon
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
30
Reconstructed matches
30
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

over 4.5Actual: 6+1.30u on one unit
Bet365recorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.30
Closing odds2.30
Unchanged
Estimated chance
49.7%
Break-even odds
2.01
Expected value at recommendation
+14.2%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 49.7% · Break-even odds 2.01. Expected value at recommendation: +14.2%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 30 settled picksand +5.0% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 4.5
    At recommendation2.30
    Closing odds2.30
    Unchanged
    Model chance49.7%EV+14.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 1.5odds1.06Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.1%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5odds1.22Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.9%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.57Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.8%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.4%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds3.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.4%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds6.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.6%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds11.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.3%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds21.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.3%Model unavailable
  • Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.28
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.7%Model unavailable
    • over 1.5odds1.07Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.4%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5odds1.23Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.5%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.57Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.5%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.7%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds3.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.0%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds6.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.9%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds12.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.6%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds28.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.7%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.10
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.2%Model unavailable
    • over 1.5odds1.04Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.0%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.4%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds3.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.4%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds4.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.5%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.10
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 1.5odds1.04Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.0%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.4%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds3.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds4.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.5%Model unavailable
  • KambiClosing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.28
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 1.5odds1.04Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.7%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5odds1.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.6%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.3%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.2%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds3.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.2%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds6.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.5%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds11.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.8%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds21.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin—Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.10
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.2%Model unavailable
    • over 1.5odds1.04Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.9%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.4%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.2%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds3.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.4%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds4.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.3%Model unavailable
    • over 190.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 197.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 199.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 200.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 201.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 202.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 203.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 204.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 205.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 206.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 209.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 210.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 216.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.20
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 1.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5odds1.14Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds3.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds6.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.7%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds10.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
  • PinnacleClosing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.25
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:45

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.7%Model unavailable
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.20
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:06

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.1%Model unavailable
    • over 1.5odds1.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.3%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5odds1.21Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.1%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.54Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.9%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.0%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds3.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.7%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds5.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.7%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds10.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.3%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds21.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.8%Model unavailable
    • over 9.5odds40.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.9%Model unavailable
    • over 10.5odds85.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin—Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:22: over 4.5 at 2.30 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goals · Paris Saint-Germain total

Open match →VIPWon
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
27
Reconstructed matches
27
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

over 2.5Actual: 4+1.50u on one unit
Bet365recorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.50
Closing odds2.50
Unchanged
Estimated chance
52.5%
Break-even odds
1.90
Expected value at recommendation
+31.3%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 52.5% · Break-even odds 1.90. Expected value at recommendation: +31.3%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 27 settled picksand +9.6% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 2.5
    At recommendation2.50
    Closing odds2.50
    Unchanged
    Model chance52.5%EV+31.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.8%Model unavailable
    • over 1.5odds1.44Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.3%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.7%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds5.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.7%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds11.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.3%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds26.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.9%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds51.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.8%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.35
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%Model unavailable
    • over 1.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds4.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.2%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds7.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.40
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:11

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%Model unavailable
    • over 1.5odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds4.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds7.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.4%Model unavailable
  • KambiClosing estimateover 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.45
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 1.5odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds4.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds9.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.6%Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.35
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:51

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%Model unavailable
    • over 1.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.2%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds4.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.2%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds7.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%Model unavailable
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.50
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.1%Model unavailable
    • over 1.5odds1.49Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.1%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.1%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds4.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.8%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds9.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.5%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds22.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.9%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds55.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin—Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:22: over 2.5 at 2.50 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goals · Paris Saint-Germain total

Open match →FreeWon
Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
15
Reconstructed matches
15
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

over 2.5Actual: 4+1.35u on one unit
Liderbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.35
Closing odds2.35
Unchanged
Estimated chance
44.1%
Break-even odds
2.27
Expected value at recommendation
+3.7%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 44.1% · Break-even odds 2.27. Expected value at recommendation: +3.7%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 15 settled picksand +0.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 2.5
    At recommendation2.35
    Closing odds2.35
    Unchanged
    Model chance44.1%EV+3.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:51

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%Model unavailable
    • over 1.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.2%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds4.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.2%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds7.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%Model unavailable
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.50
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.8%Model unavailable
    • over 1.5odds1.44Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.3%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.7%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds5.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.7%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds11.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.3%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds26.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.9%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds51.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.8%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.35
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%Model unavailable
    • over 1.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds4.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.2%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds7.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.40
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:11

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%Model unavailable
    • over 1.5odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds4.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds7.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.4%Model unavailable
  • KambiClosing estimateover 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.45
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 1.5odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds4.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds9.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.6%Model unavailable
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.50
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.1%Model unavailable
    • over 1.5odds1.49Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.1%Model unavailable
    • over 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.1%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds4.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.8%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds9.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.5%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds22.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.9%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds55.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin—Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:53: over 2.5 at 2.35 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 32.5Actual: 40+1.20u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds1.78
Odds down−0.42
Model chance at recommendation
58.8%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.70
Expected value at recommendation
+29.5%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 58.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.70. Expected value at recommendation: +29.5%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 280 settled picksand +9.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 32.5
    At recommendation2.20
    Closing odds1.78
    Odds down−0.42
    Model chance58.8%EV+29.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 28.5odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailable
    • over 29.5odds1.34Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 30.5odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.7%Model unavailable
    • over 31.5odds1.62Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailable
    • over 32.5odds1.78Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailable
    • over 33.5odds2.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailable
    • over 34.5odds2.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 35.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailable
    • over 36.5odds3.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailable
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 31.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds—
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 31.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.1%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 31.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.50
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:51

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 26.5odds1.27Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 27.5odds1.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • over 28.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%Model unavailable
    • over 29.5odds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 30.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 31.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%Model unavailable
    • over 32.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • over 33.5odds2.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 31.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.45
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 19 Oct, 09:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 26.5odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
    • over 27.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • over 28.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 29.5odds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 30.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 31.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 32.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • over 33.5odds2.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 34.5odds3.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
  • KambiClosing estimateover 31.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.12
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 27.5odds1.36Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%Model unavailable
    • over 28.5odds1.38Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.9%Model unavailable
    • over 29.5odds1.52Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.6%Model unavailable
    • over 30.5odds1.68Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 31.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.88Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.0%Model unavailable
    • over 32.5odds2.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%Model unavailable
    • over 33.5odds2.43Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 34.5odds2.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.9%Model unavailable
    • over 35.5odds3.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 31.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.55
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 26.5odds1.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 27.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • over 28.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%Model unavailable
    • over 29.5odds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 30.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 31.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 32.5odds2.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 18 Oct, 13:00: over 32.5 at 2.20 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 20:09. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
11
Reconstructed matches
11
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

over 31.5Actual: 40+0.83u on one unit
Bet365recorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.83
Closing odds1.83
Unchanged
Estimated chance
57.2%
Break-even odds
1.75
Expected value at recommendation
+4.9%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 57.2% · Break-even odds 1.75. Expected value at recommendation: +4.9%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 11 settled picksand +14.8% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 31.5
    At recommendation1.83
    Closing odds1.83
    Unchanged
    Model chance57.2%EV+4.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 31.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.1%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 31.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.15
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:51

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 26.5odds1.27Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 27.5odds1.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • over 28.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%Model unavailable
    • over 29.5odds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 30.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 31.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%Model unavailable
    • over 32.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • over 33.5odds2.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 31.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.10
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 19 Oct, 09:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 26.5odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
    • over 27.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • over 28.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 29.5odds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 30.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 31.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 32.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • over 33.5odds2.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 34.5odds3.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
  • KambiClosing estimateover 31.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.88
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 27.5odds1.36Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%Model unavailable
    • over 28.5odds1.38Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.9%Model unavailable
    • over 29.5odds1.52Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.6%Model unavailable
    • over 30.5odds1.68Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 31.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.88Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.0%Model unavailable
    • over 32.5odds2.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%Model unavailable
    • over 33.5odds2.43Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 34.5odds2.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.9%Model unavailable
    • over 35.5odds3.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 31.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.20
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 26.5odds1.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 27.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • over 28.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%Model unavailable
    • over 29.5odds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 30.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 31.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 32.5odds2.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 31.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.62
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 28.5odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailable
    • over 29.5odds1.34Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 30.5odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.7%Model unavailable
    • over 31.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.62Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailable
    • over 32.5odds1.78Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailable
    • over 33.5odds2.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailable
    • over 34.5odds2.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 35.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailable
    • over 36.5odds3.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:22: over 31.5 at 1.83 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · Paris Saint-Germain total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 16.5Actual: 22+0.95u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds1.82
Odds down−0.13
Model chance at recommendation
67.3%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.49
Expected value at recommendation
+31.2%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 67.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.49. Expected value at recommendation: +31.2%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 201 settled picksand +6.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 16.5
    At recommendation1.95
    Closing odds1.82
    Odds down−0.13
    Model chance67.3%EV+31.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:45

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 13.5odds1.29Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds1.42Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5odds1.59Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailable
    • over 16.5odds1.82Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailable
    • over 17.5odds2.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailable
    • over 18.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 19.5odds3.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 15.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds—
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 15.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.25
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:51

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 13.5odds1.38Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 16.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 17.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 15.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.20
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 19 Oct, 09:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 12.5odds1.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • over 13.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 16.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 17.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailable
    • over 18.5odds3.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
  • KambiClosing estimateover 15.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.90
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 14.5odds1.72Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.66Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 16.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 17.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 15.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.30
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 13.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 16.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 18 Oct, 15:01: over 16.5 at 1.95 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 20:09. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Paris Saint-Germain total

Open match →VIPWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
10
Reconstructed matches
10
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

over 16.5Actual: 22+0.82u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.82
Closing odds1.82
Unchanged
Estimated chance
65.8%
Break-even odds
1.52
Expected value at recommendation
+19.7%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 65.8% · Break-even odds 1.52. Expected value at recommendation: +19.7%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 10 settled picksand +28.6% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 16.5
    At recommendation1.82
    Closing odds1.82
    Unchanged
    Model chance65.8%EV+19.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:45

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 13.5odds1.29Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds1.42Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5odds1.59Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailable
    • over 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.82Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailable
    • over 17.5odds2.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailable
    • over 18.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 19.5odds3.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 15.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds—
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 15.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.25
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:51

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 13.5odds1.38Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 16.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 17.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 15.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.20
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 19 Oct, 09:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 12.5odds1.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • over 13.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 16.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 17.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailable
    • over 18.5odds3.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
  • KambiClosing estimateover 15.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.90
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 14.5odds1.72Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.66Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 16.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 17.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 15.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.30
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 13.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 16.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: over 16.5 at 1.82 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · Paris Saint-Germain total

Open match →VIPWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
11
Reconstructed matches
11
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

over 15.5Actual: 22+0.85u on one unit
Crocobetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds1.85
Unchanged
Estimated chance
59.5%
Break-even odds
1.68
Expected value at recommendation
+10.1%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 59.5% · Break-even odds 1.68. Expected value at recommendation: +10.1%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 11 settled picksand +7.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationover 15.5
    At recommendation1.85
    Closing odds1.85
    Unchanged
    Model chance59.5%EV+10.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 19 Oct, 09:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 12.5odds1.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • over 13.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 16.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 17.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailable
    • over 18.5odds3.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 15.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.73
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 15.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:51

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 13.5odds1.38Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 16.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 17.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
  • KambiClosing estimateover 15.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.66
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 14.5odds1.72Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.66Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 16.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 17.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 15.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.90
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 13.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 16.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 15.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.59
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:45

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 13.5odds1.29Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds1.42Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.59Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailable
    • over 16.5odds1.82Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailable
    • over 17.5odds2.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailable
    • over 18.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 19.5odds3.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: over 15.5 at 1.85 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · Paris Saint-Germain total

Open match →FreeWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
9
Reconstructed matches
9
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

over 15.5Actual: 22+0.73u on one unit
Bet365recorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.73
Closing odds1.73
Unchanged
Estimated chance
58.5%
Break-even odds
1.71
Expected value at recommendation
+1.1%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 58.5% · Break-even odds 1.71. Expected value at recommendation: +1.1%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 9 settled picksand +41.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 15.5
    At recommendation1.73
    Closing odds1.73
    Unchanged
    Model chance58.5%EV+1.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:25

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 15.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:51

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 13.5odds1.38Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 16.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 17.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 15.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 19 Oct, 09:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 12.5odds1.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • over 13.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 16.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 17.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailable
    • over 18.5odds3.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
  • KambiClosing estimateover 15.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.66
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 14.5odds1.72Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.66Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 16.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 17.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 15.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.90
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 13.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 16.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 15.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.59
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:45

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 13.5odds1.29Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds1.42Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.59Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailable
    • over 16.5odds1.82Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailable
    • over 17.5odds2.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailable
    • over 18.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 19.5odds3.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:22: over 15.5 at 1.73 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 12.5Actual: 20+1.12u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.12
Closing odds2.20
Odds up+0.08
Model chance at recommendation
60.0%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.67
Expected value at recommendation
+27.2%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 60.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.67. Expected value at recommendation: +27.2%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 230 settled picksand +1.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 12.5
    At recommendation2.12
    Closing odds2.20
    Odds up+0.08
    Model chance60.0%EV+27.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 7.5odds1.04Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds1.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 9.5odds1.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.5%Model unavailable
    • over 10.5odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 11.5odds1.77Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailable
    • over 12.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 13.5odds2.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds3.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5odds5.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 11.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.75
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 07:47

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 9.5odds1.27Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 10.5odds1.29Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 12.5odds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 13.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 11.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.75
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:55

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 8.5odds1.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 9.5odds1.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 10.5odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
    • over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • over 12.5odds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 13.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5odds3.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
  • KambiClosing estimateover 11.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.20
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 8.5odds1.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 9.5odds1.26Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailable
    • over 10.5odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.76Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 12.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.8%Model unavailable
    • over 13.5odds2.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds3.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5odds4.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.6%Model unavailable
    • over 16.5odds4.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.6%Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 11.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.75
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 8.5odds1.14Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 9.5odds1.16Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • over 10.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 12.5odds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.7%Model unavailable
    • over 13.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5odds3.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 18 Oct, 13:00: over 12.5 at 2.12 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 20:09. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreeWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
179
Reconstructed matches
175
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

over 11.5Actual: 20+0.70u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.70
Closing odds1.77
Odds up+0.07
Estimated chance
62.2%
Break-even odds
1.61
Expected value at recommendation
+5.8%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 62.2% · Break-even odds 1.61. Expected value at recommendation: +5.8%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 179 settled picksand -1.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 11.5
    At recommendation1.70
    Closing odds1.77
    Odds up+0.07
    Model chance62.2%EV+5.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 7.5odds1.04Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds1.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 9.5odds1.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.5%Model unavailable
    • over 10.5odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 11.5odds1.77Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailable
    • over 12.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 13.5odds2.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds3.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5odds5.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 11.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.48
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 07:47

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 9.5odds1.27Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 10.5odds1.29Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 12.5odds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 13.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 11.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.45
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:55

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 8.5odds1.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 9.5odds1.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 10.5odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
    • over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • over 12.5odds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 13.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5odds3.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
  • KambiClosing estimateover 11.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.76
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 8.5odds1.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 9.5odds1.26Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailable
    • over 10.5odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.76Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 12.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.8%Model unavailable
    • over 13.5odds2.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds3.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5odds4.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.6%Model unavailable
    • over 16.5odds4.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.6%Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 11.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.50
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 8.5odds1.14Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 9.5odds1.16Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • over 10.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 12.5odds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.7%Model unavailable
    • over 13.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 14.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • over 15.5odds3.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: over 11.5 at 1.70 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots on target · Paris Saint-Germain total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 6.5Actual: 15+1.23u on one unit
Kambirecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.23
Closing odds2.25
Odds up+0.02
Model chance at recommendation
52.4%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.91
Expected value at recommendation
+16.9%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 52.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.91. Expected value at recommendation: +16.9%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 96 settled picksand +0.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365At recommendationover 6.5
    At recommendation2.10
    Closing odds—
    No closing quote captured
    Model chance52.4%EV+10.1%
  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 6.5
    At recommendation2.23
    Closing odds2.25
    Odds up+0.02
    Model chance52.4%EV+16.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.11Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds1.32Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.8%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds1.67Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds4.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
  • BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds—
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 00:15

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.41Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.9%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.90
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 07:47

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:55

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds3.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.4%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.9%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.22
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:51

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.7%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds1.34Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.66Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds2.22Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.5%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds4.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 18 Oct, 13:01: over 6.5 at 2.23 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 20:09. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Paris Saint-Germain total

Open match →VIPWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
33
Reconstructed matches
33
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

over 6.5Actual: 15+0.90u on one unit
Betliverecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds1.90
Unchanged
Estimated chance
63.5%
Break-even odds
1.57
Expected value at recommendation
+20.7%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 63.5% · Break-even odds 1.57. Expected value at recommendation: +20.7%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 33 settled picksand +14.0% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 6.5
    At recommendation1.90
    Closing odds1.90
    Unchanged
    Model chance63.5%EV+20.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 07:47

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
  • BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds—
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 00:15

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.41Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.9%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:55

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds3.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
  • KambiClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.25
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.11Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds1.32Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.8%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.67Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds4.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.4%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.9%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.22
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:51

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.7%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds1.34Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.66Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds2.22Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.5%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds4.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: over 6.5 at 1.90 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots on target · Paris Saint-Germain total

Open match →FreeWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
149
Reconstructed matches
145
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

over 6.5Actual: 15+1.12u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.12
Closing odds2.22
Odds up+0.10
Estimated chance
49.8%
Break-even odds
2.01
Expected value at recommendation
+5.6%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 49.8% · Break-even odds 2.01. Expected value at recommendation: +5.6%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 149 settled picksand +1.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 6.5
    At recommendation2.12
    Closing odds2.22
    Odds up+0.10
    Model chance49.8%EV+5.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:51

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.7%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds1.34Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds1.66Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds2.22Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.5%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds4.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailable
  • BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds—
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 00:15

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.41Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.9%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.90
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 07:47

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:55

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds3.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
  • KambiClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.25
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.11Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds1.32Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.8%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.67Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds4.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.4%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.9%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: over 6.5 at 2.12 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 20 Oct, 12:44. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Paris Saint-Germain total

Open match →FreeWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
6
Reconstructed matches
6
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

over 6.5Actual: 15+0.85u on one unit
Liderbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds1.85
Unchanged
Estimated chance
54.2%
Break-even odds
1.84
Expected value at recommendation
+0.3%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 54.2% · Break-even odds 1.84. Expected value at recommendation: +0.3%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 6 settled picksand +75.0% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 6.5
    At recommendation1.85
    Closing odds1.85
    Unchanged
    Model chance54.2%EV+0.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.4%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.9%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
  • BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds—
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 00:15

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.41Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.9%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.90
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 07:47

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:55

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds3.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
  • KambiClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.25
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.11Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds1.32Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.8%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.67Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds4.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.22
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:51

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.7%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds1.34Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.66Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds2.22Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.5%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds4.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: over 6.5 at 1.85 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots on target · Paris Saint-Germain total

Open match →FreeWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
149
Reconstructed matches
147
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

over 6.5Actual: 15+1.10u on one unit
Bet365recorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Estimated chance
48.3%
Break-even odds
2.07
Expected value at recommendation
+1.5%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 48.3% · Break-even odds 2.07. Expected value at recommendation: +1.5%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 149 settled picksand +0.9% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 6.5
    At recommendation2.10
    Closing odds—
    No closing quote captured
    Model chance48.3%EV+1.5%
  • BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds—
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 00:15

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.41Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.9%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.90
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 07:47

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:55

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds3.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
  • KambiClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.25
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.11Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds1.32Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.8%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.67Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds4.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.4%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.9%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.22
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:51

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.7%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds1.34Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.66Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds2.22Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.5%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds4.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:22: over 6.5 at 2.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots on target · Paris Saint-Germain total

Open match →FreeWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
149
Reconstructed matches
145
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

over 5.5Actual: 15+0.65u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.65
Closing odds1.66
Odds up+0.01
Estimated chance
62.0%
Break-even odds
1.61
Expected value at recommendation
+2.4%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 62.0% · Break-even odds 1.61. Expected value at recommendation: +2.4%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 149 settled picksand +1.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 5.5
    At recommendation1.65
    Closing odds1.66
    Odds up+0.01
    Model chance62.0%EV+2.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:51

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.7%Model unavailable
    • over 3.5odds1.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds1.34Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5odds1.66Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds2.22Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.5%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds4.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailable
  • BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.41
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 00:15

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.41Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.9%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.48
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 07:47

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.45
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:55

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds3.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
  • KambiClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.67
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.11Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
    • over 4.5odds1.32Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.8%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.67Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • over 8.5odds4.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.45
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.4%Model unavailable
    • over 6.5odds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.9%Model unavailable
    • over 7.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:45: over 5.5 at 1.65 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Throw-ins · match total

Open match →VIPWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
17
Reconstructed matches
17
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 32.5Actual: 28+0.80u on one unit
Crocobetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.80
Closing odds1.80
Unchanged
Estimated chance
67.2%
Break-even odds
1.49
Expected value at recommendation
+20.9%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 67.2% · Break-even odds 1.49. Expected value at recommendation: +20.9%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 17 settled picksand +60.0% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationunder 32.5
    At recommendation1.80
    Closing odds1.80
    Unchanged
    Model chance67.2%EV+20.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 01:18

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 29.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • under 30.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 31.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • under 32.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 33.5odds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • under 34.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 35.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 32.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.70
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:53

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 29.5odds2.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%Model unavailable
    • under 30.5odds2.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%Model unavailable
    • under 31.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • under 32.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • under 33.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%Model unavailable
    • under 34.5odds1.39Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 32.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.75
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 28.5odds2.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • under 29.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • under 30.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 31.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • under 32.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.7%Model unavailable
    • under 33.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 34.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.1%Model unavailable
    • under 35.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: under 32.5 at 1.80 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Throw-ins · match total

Open match →VIPWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
15
Reconstructed matches
15
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 32.5Actual: 28+0.75u on one unit
Liderbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.75
Closing odds1.75
Unchanged
Estimated chance
66.4%
Break-even odds
1.51
Expected value at recommendation
+16.1%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 66.4% · Break-even odds 1.51. Expected value at recommendation: +16.1%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 15 settled picksand +52.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 32.5
    At recommendation1.75
    Closing odds1.75
    Unchanged
    Model chance66.4%EV+16.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:41

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 28.5odds2.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailable
    • under 29.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • under 30.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 31.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • under 32.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.7%Model unavailable
    • under 33.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 34.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.1%Model unavailable
    • under 35.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 32.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.70
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:53

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 29.5odds2.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%Model unavailable
    • under 30.5odds2.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%Model unavailable
    • under 31.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • under 32.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailable
    • under 33.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%Model unavailable
    • under 34.5odds1.39Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 32.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.80
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 01:18

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 29.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
    • under 30.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 31.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • under 32.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 33.5odds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • under 34.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
    • under 35.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: under 32.5 at 1.75 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Throw-ins · Barcelona total

Open match →VIPWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
12
Reconstructed matches
12
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 16.5Actual: 10+0.75u on one unit
Crocobetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.75
Closing odds1.75
Unchanged
Estimated chance
75.5%
Break-even odds
1.32
Expected value at recommendation
+32.1%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 75.5% · Break-even odds 1.32. Expected value at recommendation: +32.1%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 12 settled picksand +68.8% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationunder 16.5
    At recommendation1.75
    Closing odds1.75
    Unchanged
    Model chance75.5%EV+32.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 07:21

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 14.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • under 15.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • under 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • under 17.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 16.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.75
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:53

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 14.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • under 15.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • under 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • under 17.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: under 16.5 at 1.75 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Throw-ins · Barcelona total

Open match →FreeWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches
0
Validation rounds
0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches
8
Reconstructed matches
8
Lineup
Official
Quality calibration
Not yet measured
Forecast stability
Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 16.5Actual: 10+0.75u on one unit
Betliverecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.75
Closing odds1.75
Unchanged
Estimated chance
57.8%
Break-even odds
1.73
Expected value at recommendation
+1.2%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 57.8% · Break-even odds 1.73. Expected value at recommendation: +1.2%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 8 settled picksand +82.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 16.5
    At recommendation1.75
    Closing odds1.75
    Unchanged
    Model chance57.8%EV+1.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:53

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 14.5odds2.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • under 15.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailable
    • under 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • under 17.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 16.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.75
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance—EV—
    Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 07:21

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 14.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailable
    • under 15.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailable
    • under 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailable
    • under 17.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailable
Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:20: under 16.5 at 1.75 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results
Return+78.5%ROI · 32 units staked
Profit+25.13units
W / L30 / 2picks
Avg odds1.90settled picks
Recorded picks321 matches

Around this match

Previous meetings

Drag to move this button. Its position is remembered.
Open Bro workspace ↗

Bro VIP · Beta

Your football questions. The data behind them.

Search StatsGem ↗
BRO / ბრო

Football intelligence, with your VIP.

Explore players, teams and leagues. Ask a question, then make the analysis your own.

Bro is available only with VIP.