Napoli vs Bodø/Glimt 4-3 — UEFA Champions League

UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 26/27

Napoli

4–3

HT 2–1

Bodø/Glimt

Tue 20 Oct·13:00·Matchday 3·Stadio Diego Armando Maradona·Napoli won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

2Corners5
3Cards0
17Shots15
8Shots on target6
7Fouls5
10Throw-ins15
1Offsides0
8Goal kicks4
3Saves5
15Tackles8
6Interceptions4
4Dribbles7

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

13:00NapolivBodø/GlimtUEFA Champions League21 won / 4 lost · +14.55u · 25 picks

Corners · Napoli total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 5.5Actual: 2+1.55u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.5517 Oct, 19:20

Closing odds2.0520 Oct, 12:50

Odds down−0.50

Model chance at recommendation: 56.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.78
Expected value at recommendation: +43.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.78. Expected value at recommendation: +43.7%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 190 settled picksand +0.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 5.5
At recommendation2.55
Closing odds2.05
Odds down−0.50
Model chance56.4%EV+43.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:50
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds4.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:45
- under 4.5odds2.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:13
- under 5.5odds2.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- under 6.5odds1.62Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- under 7.5odds1.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- under 8.5odds1.21Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- under 9.5odds1.11Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:45
- under 10.5odds1.09Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.9%Model unavailableCaptured 18 Oct, 15:01
Bet365Closing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:26
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.6%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
BetliveClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:20
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:20
- under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:20
- under 6.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:20
- under 7.5odds1.27Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:20
- under 8.5odds1.11Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:20
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:17
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds4.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 00:17
- under 4.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 00:17
- under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 00:17
- under 6.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 00:17
- under 7.5odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 00:17
- under 8.5odds1.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 00:17
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:44
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5odds2.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.6%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 6.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 7.5odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 8.5odds1.09Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.6%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:26
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds8.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- under 3.5odds4.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- under 4.5odds2.88Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- under 6.5odds1.57Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- under 7.5odds1.29Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- under 8.5odds1.14Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- under 9.5odds1.07Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- under 10.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- under 11.5odds1.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.02
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:20
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 0.5odds50.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin—Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 1.5odds17.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.9%Model unavailableCaptured 19 Oct, 11:15
- under 2.5odds7.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:20
- under 3.5odds4.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:35
- under 4.5odds2.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:35
- under 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:35
- under 6.5odds1.59Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:35
- under 7.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:35
- under 8.5odds1.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:35
- under 9.5odds1.11Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:20
- under 10.5odds1.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:08
- under 11.5odds1.03Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.2%Model unavailableCaptured 18 Oct, 13:00

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 19:20: under 5.5 at 2.55 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 01:24. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Bodø/Glimt total

Open match →FreeLost

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches: 0
Validation rounds: 0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches: 212
Reconstructed matches: 206
Lineup: Official
Quality calibration: Not yet measured
Forecast stability: Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 3.5Actual: 5−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.7220 Oct, 12:19

Closing odds1.7420 Oct, 12:50

Odds up+0.02

Estimated chance: 58.4%
Break-even odds: 1.71
Expected value at recommendation: +0.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected normal. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 58.4% · Break-even odds 1.71. Expected value at recommendation: +0.4%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 212 settled picksand +0.9% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation1.72
Closing odds1.74
Odds up+0.02
Model chance58.4%EV+0.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:50
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds4.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:46
- under 2.5odds2.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:46
- under 3.5odds1.74Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- under 4.5odds1.36Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.6%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- under 5.5odds1.17Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
Bet365Closing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:26
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:20
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds5.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:20
- under 2.5odds2.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:20
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:20
- under 4.5odds1.38Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:20
- under 5.5odds1.14Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:20
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 00:17
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds5.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 00:17
- under 2.5odds2.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 00:17
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 00:17
- under 4.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 00:17
- under 5.5odds1.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 00:17
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:44
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds6.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 2.5odds2.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.6%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 4.5odds1.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 5.5odds1.13Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:26
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds3.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- under 5.5odds1.17Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- under 6.5odds1.06Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- under 7.5odds1.01Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:20
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 0.5odds13.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:20
- under 1.5odds5.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:20
- under 2.5odds2.72Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:20
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:20
- under 4.5odds1.42Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:20
- under 5.5odds1.21Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:20
- under 6.5odds1.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:35
- under 7.5odds1.04Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.6%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:35
- under 8.5odds1.01Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:20
- under 9.5odds1.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.6%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:20

Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:19: under 3.5 at 1.72 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Fouls · match total

Open match →VIPWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches: 0
Validation rounds: 0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches: 45
Reconstructed matches: 45
Lineup: Official
Quality calibration: Not yet measured
Forecast stability: Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 21.5Actual: 12+0.80u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8020 Oct, 12:19

Closing odds1.8020 Oct, 01:53

Unchanged

Estimated chance: 62.4%
Break-even odds: 1.60
Expected value at recommendation: +12.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Model chance at recommendation 62.4% · Break-even odds 1.60. Expected value at recommendation: +12.4%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 45 settled picksand +29.6% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 21.5
At recommendation1.80
Closing odds1.80
Unchanged
Model chance62.4%EV+12.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 01:53
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 18.5odds3.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 19.5odds2.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 20.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 21.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 22.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 23.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 24.5odds1.29Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 21.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 09:20
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 17.5odds4.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 09:20
- under 18.5odds3.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 09:20
- under 19.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 09:20
- under 20.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 09:20
- under 21.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 09:20
- under 22.5odds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 09:20
- under 23.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 09:20
- under 24.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 09:20
- under 25.5odds1.22Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 09:20
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 21.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:44
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 18.5odds3.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 10:36
- under 19.5odds2.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 20.5odds2.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 21.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 22.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 23.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 24.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 25.5odds1.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 21.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.66
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:45
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 19.5odds2.27Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:20
- under 20.5odds1.92Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:13
- under 21.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.66Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:45

Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:19: under 21.5 at 1.80 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Fouls · Napoli total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 11.5Actual: 7−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8718 Oct, 17:15

Closing odds1.9720 Oct, 12:13

Odds up+0.10

Model chance at recommendation: 54.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.84
Expected value at recommendation: +1.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 54.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.84. Expected value at recommendation: +1.9%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 62 settled picksand +7.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 11.5
At recommendation1.87
Closing odds1.97
Odds up+0.10
Model chance54.5%EV+1.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:13
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 11.5odds1.97Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:13
BetliveClosing estimateover 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 01:53
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 9.5odds1.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- over 10.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- over 12.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
CrocobetClosing estimateover 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 09:20
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 8.5odds1.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 09:20
- over 9.5odds1.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 09:20
- over 10.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 09:20
- over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 09:20
- over 12.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 09:20
- over 13.5odds2.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 09:20
- over 14.5odds4.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 09:20
LiderbetClosing estimateover 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:44
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 9.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 00:34
- over 10.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- over 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- over 12.5odds2.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44

Recommendation record

Recorded 18 Oct, 17:15: over 11.5 at 1.87 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 20:09. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · Napoli total

Open match →VIPWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches: 0
Validation rounds: 0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches: 57
Reconstructed matches: 56
Lineup: Official
Quality calibration: Not yet measured
Forecast stability: Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 11.5Actual: 7+0.80u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8020 Oct, 12:19

Closing odds1.8020 Oct, 01:53

Unchanged

Estimated chance: 68.3%
Break-even odds: 1.47
Expected value at recommendation: +22.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Model chance at recommendation 68.3% · Break-even odds 1.47. Expected value at recommendation: +22.9%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 57 settled picksand +35.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 11.5
At recommendation1.80
Closing odds1.80
Unchanged
Model chance68.3%EV+22.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 01:53
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 9.5odds2.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- under 10.5odds2.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 12.5odds1.48Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 09:20
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 8.5odds4.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 09:20
- under 9.5odds2.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 09:20
- under 10.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 09:20
- under 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 09:20
- under 12.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 09:20
- under 13.5odds1.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 09:20
- under 14.5odds1.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 09:20
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:44
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 9.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 00:34
- under 10.5odds2.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 12.5odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.68
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:13
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.68Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:13

Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:19: under 11.5 at 1.80 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goal kicks · match total

Open match →VIPWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches: 0
Validation rounds: 0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches: 42
Reconstructed matches: 42
Lineup: Official
Quality calibration: Not yet measured
Forecast stability: Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 15.5Actual: 12+0.90u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9020 Oct, 12:19

Closing odds1.9020 Oct, 01:04

Unchanged

Estimated chance: 59.3%
Break-even odds: 1.69
Expected value at recommendation: +12.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Model chance at recommendation 59.3% · Break-even odds 1.69. Expected value at recommendation: +12.7%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 42 settled picksand +20.6% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 15.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds1.90
Unchanged
Model chance59.3%EV+12.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 01:04
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 13.5odds2.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- under 14.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- under 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- under 16.5odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- under 17.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- under 18.5odds1.26Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 16.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 02:23
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 12.5odds4.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 13.5odds2.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 14.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 15.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 17.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 18.5odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 16.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:44
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 12.5odds3.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 13.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 14.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 15.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 17.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 18.5odds1.26Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44

Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:19: under 15.5 at 1.90 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goal kicks · match total

Open match →FreeWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches: 0
Validation rounds: 0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches: 10
Reconstructed matches: 10
Lineup: Official
Quality calibration: Not yet measured
Forecast stability: Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 15.5Actual: 12+0.90u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9020 Oct, 12:19

Closing odds1.9020 Oct, 11:44

Unchanged

Estimated chance: 58.1%
Break-even odds: 1.72
Expected value at recommendation: +10.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Model chance at recommendation 58.1% · Break-even odds 1.72. Expected value at recommendation: +10.4%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 10 settled picksand +55.0% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 15.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds1.90
Unchanged
Model chance58.1%EV+10.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:44
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 12.5odds3.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 13.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 14.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 15.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 16.5odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 17.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 18.5odds1.26Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
BetliveClosing estimateunder 16.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 01:04
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 13.5odds2.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- under 14.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- under 15.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- under 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- under 17.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- under 18.5odds1.26Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 16.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 02:23
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 12.5odds4.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 13.5odds2.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 14.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 15.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 17.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 18.5odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23

Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:19: under 15.5 at 1.90 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goal kicks · match total

Open match →FreeWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches: 0
Validation rounds: 0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches: 13
Reconstructed matches: 13
Lineup: Official
Quality calibration: Not yet measured
Forecast stability: Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 16.5Actual: 12+0.65u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.6520 Oct, 12:19

Closing odds1.6520 Oct, 02:23

Unchanged

Estimated chance: 61.7%
Break-even odds: 1.62
Expected value at recommendation: +1.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Model chance at recommendation 61.7% · Break-even odds 1.62. Expected value at recommendation: +1.7%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 13 settled picksand +36.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationunder 16.5
At recommendation1.65
Closing odds1.65
Unchanged
Model chance61.7%EV+1.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 02:23
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 12.5odds4.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 13.5odds2.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 14.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 15.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 17.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 18.5odds1.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
BetliveClosing estimateunder 16.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 01:04
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 13.5odds2.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- under 14.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- under 15.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- under 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- under 17.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- under 18.5odds1.26Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 16.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:44
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 12.5odds3.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 13.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 14.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 15.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 17.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 18.5odds1.26Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44

Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:19: under 16.5 at 1.65 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goal kicks · Napoli total

Open match →VIPLost

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches: 0
Validation rounds: 0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches: 10
Reconstructed matches: 10
Lineup: Official
Quality calibration: Not yet measured
Forecast stability: Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 6.5Actual: 8−1.00u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.6520 Oct, 12:19

Closing odds1.6520 Oct, 02:23

Unchanged

Estimated chance: 65.7%
Break-even odds: 1.52
Expected value at recommendation: +8.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Model chance at recommendation 65.7% · Break-even odds 1.52. Expected value at recommendation: +8.3%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 10 settled picksand +55.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationunder 6.5
At recommendation1.65
Closing odds1.65
Unchanged
Model chance65.7%EV+8.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 02:23
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5odds3.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 5.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 7.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 8.5odds1.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
BetliveClosing estimateunder 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 01:04
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 5.5odds2.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- under 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- under 7.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:44
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 5.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 7.5odds1.36Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.62
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 10:29
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 5.5odds2.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.5%Model unavailableCaptured 19 Oct, 23:20
- under 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.62Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 10:29

Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:19: under 6.5 at 1.65 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goal kicks · Napoli total

Open match →FreeLost

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches: 0
Validation rounds: 0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches: 10
Reconstructed matches: 10
Lineup: Official
Quality calibration: Not yet measured
Forecast stability: Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 6.5Actual: 8−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.6520 Oct, 12:19

Closing odds1.6520 Oct, 11:44

Unchanged

Estimated chance: 63.7%
Break-even odds: 1.57
Expected value at recommendation: +5.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Model chance at recommendation 63.7% · Break-even odds 1.57. Expected value at recommendation: +5.2%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 10 settled picksand +26.0% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 6.5
At recommendation1.65
Closing odds1.65
Unchanged
Model chance63.7%EV+5.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:44
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 5.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 7.5odds1.36Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
BetliveClosing estimateunder 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 01:04
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 5.5odds2.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- under 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- under 7.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 02:23
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5odds3.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 5.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 7.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 8.5odds1.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.62
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 10:29
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 5.5odds2.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.5%Model unavailableCaptured 19 Oct, 23:20
- under 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.62Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 10:29

Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:19: under 6.5 at 1.65 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goal kicks · Bodø/Glimt total

Open match →VIPWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches: 0
Validation rounds: 0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches: 81
Reconstructed matches: 81
Lineup: Official
Quality calibration: Not yet measured
Forecast stability: Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 9.5Actual: 4+0.80u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8020 Oct, 12:19

Closing odds1.8020 Oct, 01:04

Unchanged

Estimated chance: 63.1%
Break-even odds: 1.58
Expected value at recommendation: +13.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Model chance at recommendation 63.1% · Break-even odds 1.58. Expected value at recommendation: +13.6%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 81 settled picksand +25.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 9.5
At recommendation1.80
Closing odds1.80
Unchanged
Model chance63.1%EV+13.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 01:04
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 8.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- under 10.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 02:23
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 7.5odds3.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 8.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 10.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 11.5odds1.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:44
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 8.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 10.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44

Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:19: under 9.5 at 1.80 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goal kicks · Bodø/Glimt total

Open match →FreeWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches: 0
Validation rounds: 0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches: 11
Reconstructed matches: 11
Lineup: Official
Quality calibration: Not yet measured
Forecast stability: Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 9.5Actual: 4+0.80u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8020 Oct, 12:19

Closing odds1.8020 Oct, 02:23

Unchanged

Estimated chance: 59.8%
Break-even odds: 1.67
Expected value at recommendation: +7.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Model chance at recommendation 59.8% · Break-even odds 1.67. Expected value at recommendation: +7.7%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 11 settled picksand +32.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationunder 9.5
At recommendation1.80
Closing odds1.80
Unchanged
Model chance59.8%EV+7.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 02:23
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 7.5odds3.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 8.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 10.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 11.5odds1.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
BetliveClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 01:04
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 8.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- under 10.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:44
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 8.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 10.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44

Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:19: under 9.5 at 1.80 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goals · match total

Open match →VIPWon

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches: 0
Validation rounds: 0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches: 18
Reconstructed matches: 18
Lineup: Official
Quality calibration: Not yet measured
Forecast stability: Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

over 3.5Actual: 7+1.35u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.3520 Oct, 12:19

Closing odds2.2720 Oct, 12:24

Odds down−0.08

Estimated chance: 49.4%
Break-even odds: 2.02
Expected value at recommendation: +16.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Earlier results for this bookmaker, statistic, direction and league selected reverse. The decision probability adjusts the current paired market probability using the earlier cell bias; the count model probability is shown separately.

Model chance at recommendation 49.4% · Break-even odds 2.02. Expected value at recommendation: +16.2%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 18 settled picksand +10.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.35
Closing odds2.27
Odds down−0.08
Model chance49.4%EV+16.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:24
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24
- over 1.5odds1.16Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24
- over 2.5odds1.52Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24
- over 3.5odds2.27Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24
- over 4.5odds3.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24
- over 5.5odds7.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24
- over 6.5odds14.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24
- over 7.5odds30.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24
- over 8.5odds70.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24
Bet365Closing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:26
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 1.5odds1.14Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 2.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 4.5odds3.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 5.5odds6.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 6.5odds13.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 7.5odds23.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:26
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.03Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 1.5odds1.16Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 2.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 4.5odds3.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 5.5odds7.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 6.5odds18.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 7.5odds44.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
BetliveClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:24
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%Model unavailableCaptured 19 Oct, 22:23
- over 1.5odds1.13Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24
- over 2.5odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24
- over 4.5odds3.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24
- over 5.5odds5.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:09
CrocobetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:34
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%Model unavailableCaptured 19 Oct, 22:34
- over 1.5odds1.13Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:34
- over 2.5odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:34
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:34
- over 4.5odds3.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:34
- over 5.5odds5.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:20
KambiClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.28
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:50
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:42
- over 1.5odds1.14Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- over 2.5odds1.52Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- over 4.5odds4.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- over 5.5odds7.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:13
- over 6.5odds14.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:13
- over 7.5odds29.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin—Model unavailableCaptured 19 Oct, 04:30
LiderbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:34
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.5%Model unavailableCaptured 19 Oct, 22:24
- over 1.5odds1.13Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:34
- over 2.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.6%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:34
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:34
- over 4.5odds3.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:34
- over 5.5odds5.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:34
- over 147.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:52
- over 149.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 19 Oct, 23:07
- over 151.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- over 153.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:34
- over 156.5odds1.87Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.0%Model unavailableCaptured 19 Oct, 06:45
- over 158.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 19 Oct, 22:24
- over 159.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 15 Oct, 06:17
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:26
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 1.5odds1.11Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 2.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 4.5odds3.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 5.5odds7.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 6.5odds11.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
PinnacleClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:26
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26

Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:19: over 3.5 at 2.35 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goals · match total

Open match →VIPWon

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches: 0
Validation rounds: 0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches: 30
Reconstructed matches: 30
Lineup: Official
Quality calibration: Not yet measured
Forecast stability: Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

over 3.5Actual: 7+1.30u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.3020 Oct, 12:19

Closing odds2.1020 Oct, 18:26

Odds down−0.20

Estimated chance: 49.7%
Break-even odds: 2.01
Expected value at recommendation: +14.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Model chance at recommendation 49.7% · Break-even odds 2.01. Expected value at recommendation: +14.2%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 30 settled picksand +5.0% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.30
Closing odds2.10
Odds down−0.20
Model chance49.7%EV+14.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:26
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 1.5odds1.14Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 2.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 3.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 4.5odds3.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 5.5odds6.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 6.5odds13.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 7.5odds23.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:26
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.03Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 1.5odds1.16Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 2.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 4.5odds3.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 5.5odds7.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 6.5odds18.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 7.5odds44.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin0.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
BetliveClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:24
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%Model unavailableCaptured 19 Oct, 22:23
- over 1.5odds1.13Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24
- over 2.5odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24
- over 4.5odds3.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24
- over 5.5odds5.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:09
CrocobetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:34
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%Model unavailableCaptured 19 Oct, 22:34
- over 1.5odds1.13Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:34
- over 2.5odds1.47Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:34
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:34
- over 4.5odds3.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:34
- over 5.5odds5.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:20
KambiClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.28
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:50
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:42
- over 1.5odds1.14Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- over 2.5odds1.52Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- over 4.5odds4.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- over 5.5odds7.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:13
- over 6.5odds14.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:13
- over 7.5odds29.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin—Model unavailableCaptured 19 Oct, 04:30
LiderbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:34
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.5%Model unavailableCaptured 19 Oct, 22:24
- over 1.5odds1.13Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:34
- over 2.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.6%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:34
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:34
- over 4.5odds3.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:34
- over 5.5odds5.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:34
- over 147.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:52
- over 149.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 19 Oct, 23:07
- over 151.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- over 153.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:34
- over 156.5odds1.87Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.0%Model unavailableCaptured 19 Oct, 06:45
- over 158.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 19 Oct, 22:24
- over 159.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 15 Oct, 06:17
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:26
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 1.5odds1.11Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 2.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 4.5odds3.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 5.5odds7.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 6.5odds11.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
PinnacleClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:26
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
SuperbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.27
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:24
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.02Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24
- over 1.5odds1.16Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24
- over 2.5odds1.52Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.27Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24
- over 4.5odds3.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24
- over 5.5odds7.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24
- over 6.5odds14.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin4.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24
- over 7.5odds30.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24
- over 8.5odds70.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin1.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24

Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:19: over 3.5 at 2.30 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goals · Napoli total

Open match →VIPWon

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches: 0
Validation rounds: 0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches: 27
Reconstructed matches: 27
Lineup: Official
Quality calibration: Not yet measured
Forecast stability: Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

over 1.5Actual: 4+0.57u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.5720 Oct, 12:19

Closing odds1.5720 Oct, 18:26

Unchanged

Estimated chance: 72.5%
Break-even odds: 1.38
Expected value at recommendation: +13.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Model chance at recommendation 72.5% · Break-even odds 1.38. Expected value at recommendation: +13.9%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 27 settled picksand +9.6% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation1.57
Closing odds1.57
Unchanged
Model chance72.5%EV+13.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:26
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.11Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.57Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 2.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 3.5odds6.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin5.6%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 4.5odds15.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
- over 5.5odds29.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin2.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.46
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 00:15
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.46Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.7%Model unavailableCaptured 16 Oct, 00:15
BetliveClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.49
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:36
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.09Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.6%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:11
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.49Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:36
- over 2.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:36
- over 3.5odds4.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:36
- over 4.5odds7.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:36
CrocobetClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:42
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.09Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:20
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:20
- over 2.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:42
- over 3.5odds4.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:42
- over 4.5odds7.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:42
KambiClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:50
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.6%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- over 2.5odds2.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- over 3.5odds4.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- over 4.5odds10.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
LiderbetClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:36
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.09Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.6%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:11
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:11
- over 2.5odds2.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:36
- over 3.5odds4.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin9.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:36
- over 4.5odds7.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:36
SuperbetClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.52
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:42
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.09Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:42
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.52Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:42
- over 2.5odds2.57Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:42
- over 3.5odds5.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.6%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:42
- over 4.5odds11.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin6.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:13
- over 5.5odds24.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin3.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:42
- over 6.5odds60.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin—Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:24

Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:19: over 1.5 at 1.57 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Offsides · match total

Open match →FreeWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches: 0
Validation rounds: 0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches: 7
Reconstructed matches: 7
Lineup: Official
Quality calibration: Not yet measured
Forecast stability: Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 3.5Actual: 1+0.80u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8020 Oct, 12:19

Closing odds1.8020 Oct, 11:44

Unchanged

Estimated chance: 60.2%
Break-even odds: 1.66
Expected value at recommendation: +8.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Model chance at recommendation 60.2% · Break-even odds 1.66. Expected value at recommendation: +8.3%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 7 settled picksand +20.0% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation1.80
Closing odds1.80
Unchanged
Model chance60.2%EV+8.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:44
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 0.5odds9.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin—Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 10:29
- under 1.5odds4.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 2.5odds2.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 4.5odds1.34Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 5.5odds1.12Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 6.5odds1.01Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:11
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds2.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:11
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:11
- under 4.5odds1.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:11
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 02:23
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds5.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 2.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 4.5odds1.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 5.5odds1.08Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23

Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:19: under 3.5 at 1.80 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches: 0
Validation rounds: 0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches: 65
Reconstructed matches: 63
Lineup: Official
Quality calibration: Not yet measured
Forecast stability: Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

over 29.5Actual: 32+0.85u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8520 Oct, 12:19

Closing odds1.8020 Oct, 12:50

Odds down−0.05

Estimated chance: 65.0%
Break-even odds: 1.54
Expected value at recommendation: +20.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Model chance at recommendation 65.0% · Break-even odds 1.54. Expected value at recommendation: +20.2%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 65 settled picksand +29.8% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 29.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds1.80
Odds down−0.05
Model chance65.0%EV+20.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:50
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 24.5odds1.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.7%Model unavailableCaptured 19 Oct, 22:50
- over 25.5odds1.27Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:34
- over 26.5odds1.34Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- over 27.5odds1.46Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- over 28.5odds1.61Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- over 29.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- over 30.5odds2.04Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- over 31.5odds2.33Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- over 32.5odds2.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
Bet365Closing estimateover 28.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds—
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:26
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 28.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
BetliveClosing estimateover 28.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 01:04
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 25.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- over 26.5odds1.42Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- over 27.5odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- over 28.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- over 29.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- over 30.5odds2.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- over 31.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
CrocobetClosing estimateover 28.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 02:23
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 24.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- over 25.5odds1.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- over 26.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- over 27.5odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- over 28.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- over 29.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- over 30.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- over 31.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- over 32.5odds3.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
LiderbetClosing estimateover 28.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:44
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 25.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- over 26.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- over 27.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- over 28.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- over 29.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- over 30.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- over 31.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
SuperbetClosing estimateover 28.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.97
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:19
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 24.5odds1.22Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:38
- over 25.5odds1.27Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 10:05
- over 26.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 06:10
- over 27.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 10:07
- over 28.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:11
- over 29.5odds1.97Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:11
- over 30.5odds2.27Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 06:10
- over 31.5odds2.67Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:19
- over 32.5odds3.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 10:05
- over 33.5odds3.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 10:29

Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:19: over 29.5 at 1.85 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches: 0
Validation rounds: 0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches: 210
Reconstructed matches: 208
Lineup: Official
Quality calibration: Not yet measured
Forecast stability: Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

over 28.5Actual: 32+0.80u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8020 Oct, 12:19

Closing odds1.8020 Oct, 18:26

Unchanged

Estimated chance: 64.1%
Break-even odds: 1.56
Expected value at recommendation: +15.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Model chance at recommendation 64.1% · Break-even odds 1.56. Expected value at recommendation: +15.3%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 210 settled picksand +16.8% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 28.5
At recommendation1.80
Closing odds1.80
Unchanged
Model chance64.1%EV+15.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 18:26
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 28.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 18:26
BetliveClosing estimateover 28.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 01:04
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 25.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- over 26.5odds1.42Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- over 27.5odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- over 28.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- over 29.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- over 30.5odds2.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- over 31.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
CrocobetClosing estimateover 28.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 02:23
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 24.5odds1.18Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- over 25.5odds1.28Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- over 26.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- over 27.5odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- over 28.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- over 29.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- over 30.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- over 31.5odds2.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.6%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- over 32.5odds3.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
KambiClosing estimateover 28.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.61
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:50
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 24.5odds1.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.7%Model unavailableCaptured 19 Oct, 22:50
- over 25.5odds1.27Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:34
- over 26.5odds1.34Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- over 27.5odds1.46Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- over 28.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.61Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- over 29.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- over 30.5odds2.04Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- over 31.5odds2.33Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
- over 32.5odds2.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:50
LiderbetClosing estimateover 28.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:44
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 25.5odds1.31Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- over 26.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- over 27.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- over 28.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- over 29.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- over 30.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- over 31.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
SuperbetClosing estimateover 28.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:19
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 24.5odds1.22Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:38
- over 25.5odds1.27Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 10:05
- over 26.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 06:10
- over 27.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 10:07
- over 28.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:11
- over 29.5odds1.97Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:11
- over 30.5odds2.27Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 06:10
- over 31.5odds2.67Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:19
- over 32.5odds3.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin10.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 10:05
- over 33.5odds3.75Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 10:29

Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:19: over 28.5 at 1.80 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Throw-ins · match total

Open match →VIPWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches: 0
Validation rounds: 0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches: 17
Reconstructed matches: 17
Lineup: Official
Quality calibration: Not yet measured
Forecast stability: Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 32.5Actual: 25+0.80u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8020 Oct, 12:19

Closing odds1.8020 Oct, 08:39

Unchanged

Estimated chance: 67.2%
Break-even odds: 1.49
Expected value at recommendation: +20.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Model chance at recommendation 67.2% · Break-even odds 1.49. Expected value at recommendation: +20.9%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 17 settled picksand +60.0% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationunder 32.5
At recommendation1.80
Closing odds1.80
Unchanged
Model chance67.2%EV+20.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:39
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 28.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 29.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- under 30.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- under 31.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- under 32.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- under 33.5odds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- under 34.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- under 35.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:35
BetliveClosing estimateunder 32.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 01:53
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 29.5odds2.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 30.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 31.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 32.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 33.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 34.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 32.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:44
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 28.5odds2.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 03:25
- under 29.5odds2.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 30.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 31.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 32.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 33.5odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 34.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 35.5odds1.33Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44

Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:19: under 32.5 at 1.80 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Throw-ins · match total

Open match →VIPWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches: 0
Validation rounds: 0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches: 15
Reconstructed matches: 15
Lineup: Official
Quality calibration: Not yet measured
Forecast stability: Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 32.5Actual: 25+0.80u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8020 Oct, 12:19

Closing odds1.8020 Oct, 11:44

Unchanged

Estimated chance: 65.7%
Break-even odds: 1.52
Expected value at recommendation: +18.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Model chance at recommendation 65.7% · Break-even odds 1.52. Expected value at recommendation: +18.3%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 15 settled picksand +52.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 32.5
At recommendation1.80
Closing odds1.80
Unchanged
Model chance65.7%EV+18.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:44
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 28.5odds2.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 03:25
- under 29.5odds2.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 30.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 31.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 32.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 33.5odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 34.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 35.5odds1.33Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
BetliveClosing estimateunder 32.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 01:53
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 29.5odds2.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 30.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 31.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 32.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 33.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 34.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 32.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:39
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 28.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 29.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- under 30.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- under 31.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- under 32.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- under 33.5odds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- under 34.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- under 35.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:35

Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:19: under 32.5 at 1.80 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Throw-ins · match total

Open match →FreeWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches: 0
Validation rounds: 0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches: 13
Reconstructed matches: 13
Lineup: Official
Quality calibration: Not yet measured
Forecast stability: Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 32.5Actual: 25+0.70u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.7020 Oct, 12:19

Closing odds1.7020 Oct, 01:53

Unchanged

Estimated chance: 63.1%
Break-even odds: 1.59
Expected value at recommendation: +7.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Model chance at recommendation 63.1% · Break-even odds 1.59. Expected value at recommendation: +7.2%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 13 settled picksand +28.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 32.5
At recommendation1.70
Closing odds1.70
Unchanged
Model chance63.1%EV+7.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 01:53
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 29.5odds2.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 30.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 31.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 32.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 33.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 34.5odds1.40Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 32.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:39
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 28.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- under 29.5odds2.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- under 30.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- under 31.5odds1.95Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- under 32.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- under 33.5odds1.65Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.9%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- under 34.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- under 35.5odds1.35Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:35
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 32.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:44
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 28.5odds2.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 03:25
- under 29.5odds2.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.0%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 30.5odds2.25Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin13.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 31.5odds2.00Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 32.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 33.5odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 34.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 35.5odds1.33Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44

Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:19: under 32.5 at 1.70 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Throw-ins · Napoli total

Open match →FreeWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches: 0
Validation rounds: 0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches: 13
Reconstructed matches: 13
Lineup: Official
Quality calibration: Not yet measured
Forecast stability: Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

under 18.5Actual: 10+0.70u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.7020 Oct, 12:19

Closing odds1.7020 Oct, 08:39

Unchanged

Estimated chance: 61.9%
Break-even odds: 1.62
Expected value at recommendation: +5.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Model chance at recommendation 61.9% · Break-even odds 1.62. Expected value at recommendation: +5.2%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 13 settled picksand +18.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationunder 18.5
At recommendation1.70
Closing odds1.70
Unchanged
Model chance61.9%EV+5.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:39
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 16.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- under 17.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- under 18.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- under 19.5odds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
BetliveClosing estimateunder 18.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 01:53
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 16.5odds2.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.7%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:04
- under 17.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 18.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 19.5odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- under 20.5odds1.42Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 18.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 11:44
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 17.5odds2.10Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 18.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44
- under 19.5odds1.55Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 11:44

Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:19: under 18.5 at 1.70 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Throw-ins · Bodø/Glimt total

Open match →VIPWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches: 0
Validation rounds: 0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches: 51
Reconstructed matches: 48
Lineup: Official
Quality calibration: Not yet measured
Forecast stability: Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

over 13.5Actual: 15+1.05u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0520 Oct, 12:19

Closing odds2.0520 Oct, 12:13

Unchanged

Estimated chance: 56.8%
Break-even odds: 1.76
Expected value at recommendation: +16.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Model chance at recommendation 56.8% · Break-even odds 1.76. Expected value at recommendation: +16.3%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 51 settled picksand +16.9% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 13.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds2.05
Unchanged
Model chance56.8%EV+16.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:42
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 12.5odds1.73Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:42
- over 13.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:13
BetliveClosing estimateover 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 01:53
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 11.5odds1.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- over 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- over 13.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- over 14.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
CrocobetClosing estimateover 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:39
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 11.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- over 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- over 13.5odds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- over 14.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- over 15.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39

Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:19: over 13.5 at 2.05 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 20 Oct, 12:43. The original pick remains in the results.

Throw-ins · Bodø/Glimt total

Open match →FreeWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches: 0
Validation rounds: 0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches: 37
Reconstructed matches: 35
Lineup: Official
Quality calibration: Not yet measured
Forecast stability: Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

over 13.5Actual: 15+0.90u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9020 Oct, 12:19

Closing odds1.9020 Oct, 01:53

Unchanged

Estimated chance: 57.5%
Break-even odds: 1.74
Expected value at recommendation: +9.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Model chance at recommendation 57.5% · Break-even odds 1.74. Expected value at recommendation: +9.2%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 37 settled picksand +19.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 13.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds1.90
Unchanged
Model chance57.5%EV+9.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 01:53
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 11.5odds1.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- over 12.5odds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- over 13.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- over 14.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
CrocobetClosing estimateover 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:39
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 11.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- over 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- over 13.5odds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- over 14.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- over 15.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
SuperbetClosing estimateover 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:42
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:42
- over 13.5odds2.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:13

Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:19: over 13.5 at 1.90 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Throw-ins · Bodø/Glimt total

Open match →VIPWon

Provider statistics · StatsGem grading

Prediction qualityMore evidence needed

Quality measures forecast reliability. Expected value uses the offered odds.

More settled forecasts from later matches are needed.

Unseen matches: 0
Validation rounds: 0

Each validation round learns from earlier matches and checks later matches.

Earlier matches: 51
Reconstructed matches: 48
Lineup: Official
Quality calibration: Not yet measured
Forecast stability: Not yet measured

This recorded pick has a result.

over 12.5Actual: 15+0.73u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.7320 Oct, 12:44

Closing odds1.7320 Oct, 12:42

Unchanged

Estimated chance: 64.9%
Break-even odds: 1.54
Expected value at recommendation: +12.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Model chance at recommendation 64.9% · Break-even odds 1.54. Expected value at recommendation: +12.3%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 51 settled picksand +16.9% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 12.5
At recommendation1.73
Closing odds1.73
Unchanged
Model chance64.9%EV+12.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 12:42
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin7.8%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:42
- over 13.5odds2.05Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin8.3%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 12:13
BetliveClosing estimateover 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 01:53
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 11.5odds1.37Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.2%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- over 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- over 13.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
- over 14.5odds2.30Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 01:53
CrocobetClosing estimateover 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 20 Oct, 08:39
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 11.5odds1.45Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.4%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 02:23
- over 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- over 13.5odds1.70Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- over 14.5odds1.90Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.5%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39
- over 15.5odds2.20Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin12.1%Model unavailableCaptured 20 Oct, 08:39

Recommendation record

Recorded 20 Oct, 12:44: over 12.5 at 1.73 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return+58.2%ROI · 25 units staked

Profit+14.55units

W / L21 / 4picks

Avg odds1.86settled picks

Recorded picks251 matches

Around this match

CompetitionUEFA Champions League Home teamNapoli Away teamBodø/Glimt RefereeJosé María Sánchez Martínez

Match overview

Matches

Corners · Napoli total

Corners · Bodø/Glimt total

Fouls · match total

Fouls · Napoli total

Fouls · Napoli total

Goal kicks · match total

Goal kicks · match total

Goal kicks · match total

Goal kicks · Napoli total

Goal kicks · Napoli total

Goal kicks · Bodø/Glimt total

Goal kicks · Bodø/Glimt total

Goals · match total

Goals · match total

Goals · Napoli total

Offsides · match total

Shots · match total

Shots · match total

Throw-ins · match total

Throw-ins · match total

Throw-ins · match total

Throw-ins · Napoli total

Throw-ins · Bodø/Glimt total

Throw-ins · Bodø/Glimt total

Throw-ins · Bodø/Glimt total

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