Morocco vs Mali 1-1 — International Friendly Games

International Friendly GamesInt. Friendly Games 2026

Morocco

1–1

HT 1–0

Mali

Sun 4 Oct·12:00·Drawn

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

5Corners3
1Cards5
11Shots11
4Shots on target3
4Fouls24
24Throw-ins14
0Offsides2
7Goal kicks7
2Saves3
11Tackles16
6Interceptions13
9Dribbles6

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

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We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

12:00

Moroccov

MaliInternational Friendly Games1 won / 5 lost · −3.75u · 6 picks

Cards · Mali total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 1.5Actual: 5+1.25u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.254 Oct, 11:08

Closing odds2.254 Oct, 03:30

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 1.5
At recommendation2.25
Closing odds2.25
Unchanged
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 4 Oct, 03:30
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison. The original model estimate is unavailable; results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate83.3%Closing EV estimate+4.1%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 03:30
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate+20.6%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 03:30
LiderbetOriginal model estimate unavailableover 1.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds2.05
Unchanged
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 4 Oct, 05:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison. The original model estimate is unavailable; results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate+9.8%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 05:31
- over 2.5odds4.70Closing chance estimate27.0%Closing EV estimate+27.0%margin13.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 05:31
CrocobetClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.6%EV+4.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 4 Oct, 05:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 05:31
- over 2.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate27.0%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 05:31

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:08: over 1.5 at 2.25 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Fouls · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 24.5Actual: 28−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.104 Oct, 11:08

Closing odds2.104 Oct, 03:30

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 24.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds2.10
Unchanged
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 4 Oct, 03:30
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison. The original model estimate is unavailable; results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 23.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate53.4%Closing EV estimate+33.5%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 03:30
- under 24.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate59.3%Closing EV estimate+24.5%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 03:30
- under 25.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate64.8%Closing EV estimate+16.7%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 03:30
- under 26.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate70.0%Closing EV estimate+12.0%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 03:30
- under 27.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate74.7%Closing EV estimate+8.3%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 03:30
- under 28.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate78.9%Closing EV estimate+5.0%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 03:30
CrocobetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 24.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds2.10
Unchanged
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 4 Oct, 02:55
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison. The original model estimate is unavailable; results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 24.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate59.3%Closing EV estimate+24.5%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 02:55
- under 25.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate64.8%Closing EV estimate+19.9%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 02:55
- under 26.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate70.0%Closing EV estimate+19.0%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 02:55

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:08: under 24.5 at 2.10 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Fouls · Mali total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 12.5Actual: 24−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.254 Oct, 11:08

Closing odds2.254 Oct, 03:30

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 12.5
At recommendation2.25
Closing odds2.25
Unchanged
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 4 Oct, 03:30
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison. The original model estimate is unavailable; results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimate58.9%Closing EV estimate+32.5%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 03:30
- under 13.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate67.6%Closing EV estimate+21.7%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 03:30
- under 14.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate75.2%Closing EV estimate+12.8%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 03:30
CrocobetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 12.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds2.10
Unchanged
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 4 Oct, 02:55
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison. The original model estimate is unavailable; results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate58.9%Closing EV estimate+23.6%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 02:55
- under 13.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate67.6%Closing EV estimate+21.7%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 02:55
- under 14.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate75.2%Closing EV estimate+16.6%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 02:55

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:08: under 12.5 at 2.25 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Offsides · Morocco total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 1.5Actual: 0−1.00u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.004 Oct, 11:08

Closing odds2.004 Oct, 02:55

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveOriginal model estimate unavailableover 1.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds1.95
Unchanged
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 4 Oct, 03:30
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison. The original model estimate is unavailable; results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate59.4%Closing EV estimate+15.8%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 03:30
Crocobetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 1.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds2.00
Unchanged
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 4 Oct, 02:55
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison. The original model estimate is unavailable; results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate86.1%Closing EV estimate+3.3%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 02:55
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate59.4%Closing EV estimate+18.8%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 02:55
- over 2.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate33.0%Closing EV estimate+23.7%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 02:55

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:08: over 1.5 at 2.00 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots · Morocco total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 13.5Actual: 11−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.254 Oct, 11:08

Closing odds2.254 Oct, 03:30

Unchanged

Archived model estimate: 53.4%
Minimum odds from archived estimate: 1.88
EV from archived model estimate: +20.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Archived model estimate 53.4% · Minimum odds from archived estimate 1.88. EV from archived model estimate: +20.1%.

Original odds and result stay fixed. The model estimate was saved 4 Oct, 03:31 before the announcement.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceArchived model estimateover 13.5
At recommendation2.25
Closing odds2.25
Unchanged
Model chance53.4%EV+20.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 4 Oct, 03:30
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the archived model estimate. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 11.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate74.9%Closing EV estimate+12.4%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 03:30
- over 12.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate66.8%Closing EV estimate+20.2%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 03:30
- over 13.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimate58.0%Closing EV estimate+30.6%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 03:30

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:08: over 13.5 at 2.25 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots on target · Mali total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 2.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.104 Oct, 11:08

Closing odds2.104 Oct, 03:30

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 2.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds2.10
Unchanged
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 4 Oct, 03:30
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison. The original model estimate is unavailable; results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate52.8%Closing EV estimate+10.9%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 03:30
- under 3.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate73.4%Closing EV estimate+6.4%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 03:30
CrocobetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 2.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds2.10
Unchanged
Model chance—EV—
Last captured before kickoffas of 4 Oct, 02:55
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison. The original model estimate is unavailable; results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate28.5%Closing EV estimate+6.8%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 02:55
- under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate52.8%Closing EV estimate+10.9%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 02:55
- under 3.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate73.4%Closing EV estimate+6.4%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 02:55

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 11:08: under 2.5 at 2.10 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−62.5%ROI · 6 units staked

Profit−3.75units

W / L1 / 5picks

Avg odds2.16settled picks

Recorded picks61 matches

Around this match

CompetitionInternational Friendly Games Home teamMorocco Away teamMali

Previous meetings

Fri 26 DecMorocco 1-1 Mali

Match overview

Matches

Cards · Mali total

Fouls · match total

Fouls · Mali total

Offsides · Morocco total

Shots · Morocco total

Shots on target · Mali total

This match

Around this match

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