Manchester City vs Paris Saint-Germain 2-4 — UEFA Champions League

UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 26/27

Manchester City

2–4

HT 0–3

Paris Saint-Germain

Wed 14 Oct·13:00·Matchday 2·Etihad Stadium, Manchester·Paris Saint-Germain won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

11Corners2
1Cards1
27Shots15
9Shots on target10
10Fouls11
19Throw-ins11
2Offsides0
3Goal kicks12
6Saves6
23Tackles22
10Interceptions15
13Dribbles8

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

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We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

13:00Manchester CityvParis Saint-GermainUEFA Champions League3 won / 1 lost · +1.75u · 4 picks

Cards · Paris Saint-Germain total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 1.5Actual: 1+1.10u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1013 Oct, 11:45

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.96
Expected value at recommendation: +7.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 51.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.96. Expected value at recommendation: +7.6%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 39 settled picksand +2.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

CrocobetAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.3%EV+12.8%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.3%EV+7.6%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.3%EV+12.8%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.4%EV+12.6%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.4%EV-5.7%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 11:45: under 1.5 at 2.10 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Offsides · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 2+0.80u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8014 Oct, 03:12

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 62.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.61
Expected value at recommendation: +12.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 62.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.61. Expected value at recommendation: +12.1%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 98 settled picksand +3.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.80
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance62.3%EV+12.1%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.6%EV+4.8%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.6%EV+1.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 03:12: under 4.5 at 1.80 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 28.5Actual: 42+0.85u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8514 Oct, 09:54

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 55.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.80
Expected value at recommendation: +3.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 55.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.80. Expected value at recommendation: +3.3%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 180 settled picksand +9.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 28.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.8%EV+3.3%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 28.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.8%EV-8.7%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 28.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.8%EV-10.2%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 28.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.8%EV-7.5%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 28.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.8%EV-10.2%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 28.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.8%EV-10.2%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 09:54: over 28.5 at 1.85 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 12:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Throw-ins · Manchester City total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 14.5Actual: 19−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9212 Oct, 13:06

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 59.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.69
Expected value at recommendation: +13.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 59.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.69. Expected value at recommendation: +13.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 14.5
At recommendation1.92
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance59.3%EV+13.8%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.0%EV+58.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.0%EV+40.4%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.55
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.0%EV+55.6%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 13:06: under 14.5 at 1.92 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 04:30. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return+43.8%ROI · 4 units staked

Profit+1.75units

W / L3 / 1picks

Avg odds1.92settled picks

Recorded picks41 matches

Around this match

CompetitionUEFA Champions League Home teamManchester City Away teamParis Saint-Germain RefereeSven Jablonski

Match overview

Matches

Cards · Paris Saint-Germain total

Offsides · match total

Shots · match total

Throw-ins · Manchester City total

This match

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