Málaga vs Real Sociedad 2-5 — LaLiga

LaLigaLaLiga 26/27

Málaga

2–5

HT 0–2

Real Sociedad

Sun 18 Oct·10:30·Matchday 9·La Rosaleda·Real Sociedad won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

4Corners5
0Cards2
17Shots21
6Shots on target9
4Fouls9
19Throw-ins22
2Offsides2
5Goal kicks14
4Saves4
22Tackles18
7Interceptions13
10Dribbles2

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

0Free available0VIP available5Recorded Free2Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

10:30MálagavReal SociedadLaLiga5 won / 2 lost · +3.03u · 7 picks

Corners · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 9.5Actual: 9−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8713 Oct, 10:15

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.85
Expected value at recommendation: +1.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 54.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.85. Expected value at recommendation: +1.4%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 98 settled picksand +4.6% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation1.87
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.2%EV+1.4%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
12 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.78
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
16 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 10:15: over 9.5 at 1.87 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 11:12. The original pick remains in the results.

Goals · Real Sociedad total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 1.5Actual: 5+1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0017 Oct, 03:50

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 60.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.67
Expected value at recommendation: +20.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 60.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.67. Expected value at recommendation: +20.2%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 53 settled picksand +1.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365At recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance60.1%EV+14.8%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance60.1%EV+17.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance60.1%EV+20.2%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.79
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 03:50: over 1.5 at 2.00 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 07:42. The original pick remains in the results.

Offsides · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 3.5Actual: 4+1.10u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1018 Oct, 03:03

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.83
Expected value at recommendation: +15.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 54.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.83. Expected value at recommendation: +15.0%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 71 settled picksand +13.0% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.8%EV+15.0%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.8%EV+20.5%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.25
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.8%EV+23.2%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.43
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 18 Oct, 03:03: over 3.5 at 2.10 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 06:09. The original pick remains in the results.

Saves · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 6.5Actual: 8+1.10u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1018 Oct, 07:42

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 64.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.55
Expected value at recommendation: +36.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 64.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.55. Expected value at recommendation: +36.0%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 59 settled picksand +16.9% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

CrocobetAt recommendationover 6.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance64.8%EV+23.1%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 6.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance64.8%EV+36.0%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.74
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 18 Oct, 07:42: over 6.5 at 2.10 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 10:08. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Real Sociedad total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 13.5Actual: 21+0.81u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8116 Oct, 11:00

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 57.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.75
Expected value at recommendation: +3.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 57.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.75. Expected value at recommendation: +3.7%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 125 settled picksand +7.0% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 13.5
At recommendation1.81
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.3%EV+3.7%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 13.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 13.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 13.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 13.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 13.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.77
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 16 Oct, 11:00: over 13.5 at 1.81 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 16 Oct, 19:04. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 9.5Actual: 15+1.02u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0213 Oct, 11:32

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 59.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.70
Expected value at recommendation: +19.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 59.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.70. Expected value at recommendation: +19.5%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 57 settled picksand +2.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365At recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance58.7%EV+23.2%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance66.6%EV+33.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation2.02
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance59.2%EV+19.5%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation2.35
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance59.2%EV+39.0%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 11:32: over 9.5 at 2.02 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 12:24. The original pick remains in the results.

Throw-ins · Málaga total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 16.5Actual: 19−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.3018 Oct, 10:01

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 68.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.46
Expected value at recommendation: +58.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 68.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.46. Expected value at recommendation: +58.3%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 436 settled picksand +2.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 16.5
At recommendation2.30
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance68.8%EV+58.3%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 16.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 16.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 18 Oct, 10:01: under 16.5 at 2.30 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 18 Oct, 10:08. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return+43.3%ROI · 7 units staked

Profit+3.03units

W / L5 / 2picks

Avg odds2.03settled picks

Recorded picks71 matches

Around this match

CompetitionLaLiga Home teamMálaga Away teamReal Sociedad RefereeLuis Bestard Servera

Previous meetings

Sun 7 JanMálaga 0-1 Real Sociedad

Match overview

Matches

Corners · match total

Goals · Real Sociedad total

Offsides · match total

Saves · match total

Shots · Real Sociedad total

Shots on target · match total

Throw-ins · Málaga total

This match

Around this match

Previous meetings

On this page

This category

StatsGem