Le Mans vs Toulouse — Ligue 1

Ligue 1Ligue 1 26/27

Le Mans

0–3

HT 0–0

Toulouse

Fri 16 Oct··Matchday 7·Stade Marie-Marvingt·Toulouse won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time
  • 2Corners2
  • 2Cards1
  • 11Shots13
  • 1Shots on target5
  • 15Fouls9
  • 17Throw-ins14
  • 0Offsides3
  • 7Goal kicks8
  • 2Saves1
  • 11Tackles13
  • 4Interceptions7
  • 6Dribbles6
OddsOddsStatsStatsPredictionsPicksRefereeRefereeCoachCoach
0Free available0VIP available4Recorded Free2Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match
Le MansvToulouseLigue 11 won / 5 lost · −4.10u · 6 picks

Corners · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 9.5Actual: 4−1.00u on one unit
Bet365recorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds2.10
Unchanged
Model chance at recommendation
58.0%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.73
Expected value at recommendation
+21.7%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 58.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.73. Expected value at recommendation: +21.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 9.5
    At recommendation2.10
    Closing odds2.10
    Unchanged
    Model chance58.0%EV+21.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 14 Oct, 00:15

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate54.0%Closing EV estimate+13.5%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiAt recommendationover 9.5
    At recommendation1.95
    Closing odds1.85
    Odds down−0.10
    Model chance56.2%EV+9.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 12:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 6.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate84.4%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate75.6%Closing EV estimate−2.5%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate65.2%Closing EV estimate−2.3%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate54.0%Closing EV estimate−0.0%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate43.0%Closing EV estimate+1.1%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate32.9%Closing EV estimate+0.3%margin8.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds4.00Closing chance estimate24.1%Closing EV estimate−3.6%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds5.50Closing chance estimate17.0%Closing EV estimate−6.7%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 9.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.95
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance54.0%EV+5.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 11:10

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate91.1%Closing EV estimate−4.3%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate84.4%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.34Closing chance estimate75.6%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate65.2%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate54.0%Closing EV estimate+5.4%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate43.0%Closing EV estimate+5.4%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds3.15Closing chance estimate32.9%Closing EV estimate+3.6%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds4.50Closing chance estimate24.1%Closing EV estimate+8.5%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds6.00Closing chance estimate17.0%Closing EV estimate+1.8%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 9.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.95
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance54.0%EV+5.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 11:26

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate91.1%Closing EV estimate−2.5%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate84.4%Closing EV estimate−0.4%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.34Closing chance estimate75.6%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate65.2%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate54.0%Closing EV estimate+5.4%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate43.0%Closing EV estimate+5.4%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds3.15Closing chance estimate32.9%Closing EV estimate+3.6%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds4.50Closing chance estimate24.1%Closing EV estimate+8.5%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds6.00Closing chance estimate17.0%Closing EV estimate+1.8%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 9.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.95
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance54.0%EV+5.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 11:13

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 6.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate84.4%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate75.6%Closing EV estimate+0.5%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate65.2%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate54.0%Closing EV estimate+5.4%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate43.0%Closing EV estimate+5.4%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds3.15Closing chance estimate32.9%Closing EV estimate+3.6%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 9.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.02
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance54.0%EV+9.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 10:08

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.00Closing chance estimate99.4%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin2.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate98.2%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin4.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate95.7%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin6.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate91.1%Closing EV estimate+2.1%margin6.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate84.4%Closing EV estimate+3.8%margin6.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate75.6%Closing EV estimate+5.8%margin7.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.66Closing chance estimate65.2%Closing EV estimate+8.2%margin6.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.02Closing chance estimate54.0%Closing EV estimate+9.2%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate43.0%Closing EV estimate+9.7%margin6.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate32.9%Closing EV estimate+8.5%margin6.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds4.35Closing chance estimate24.1%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds5.80Closing chance estimate17.0%Closing EV estimate−1.6%margin7.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds7.80Closing chance estimate11.5%Closing EV estimate−10.7%margin7.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds11.00Closing chance estimate7.4%Closing EV estimate−18.2%margin6.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 16.5odds16.00Closing chance estimate4.6%Closing EV estimate−25.7%margin5.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 17.5odds22.00Closing chance estimate2.8%Closing EV estimate−38.5%margin3.9%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 06:18: over 9.5 at 2.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 23:34. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Toulouse total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 5.5Actual: 2−1.00u on one unit
Kambirecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.40
Closing odds2.33
Odds down−0.07
Model chance at recommendation
54.6%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.84
Expected value at recommendation
+31.1%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 54.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.84. Expected value at recommendation: +31.1%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 35 settled picksand +17.6% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 5.5
    At recommendation2.40
    Closing odds2.33
    Odds down−0.07
    Model chance54.6%EV+31.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 12:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate89.2%Closing EV estimate+2.6%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate79.0%Closing EV estimate+9.1%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate66.6%Closing EV estimate+16.6%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.33Closing chance estimate53.4%Closing EV estimate+24.5%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds3.25Closing chance estimate40.8%Closing EV estimate+32.7%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds4.50Closing chance estimate29.7%Closing EV estimate+33.5%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.40
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance53.4%EV+28.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 23:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate89.2%Closing EV estimate−1.9%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.34Closing chance estimate79.0%Closing EV estimate+5.9%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate66.6%Closing EV estimate+16.6%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.40Closing chance estimate53.4%Closing EV estimate+28.3%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds3.65Closing chance estimate40.8%Closing EV estimate+49.0%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.45
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance53.4%EV+30.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 06:53

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate89.2%Closing EV estimate−0.1%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate79.0%Closing EV estimate+6.7%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate66.6%Closing EV estimate+16.6%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.45Closing chance estimate53.4%Closing EV estimate+30.9%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate40.8%Closing EV estimate+51.1%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.45
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance53.4%EV+30.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 08:11

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 2.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate89.2%Closing EV estimate−3.6%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate79.0%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin12.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate66.6%Closing EV estimate+13.2%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.45Closing chance estimate53.4%Closing EV estimate+30.9%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds3.80Closing chance estimate40.8%Closing EV estimate+55.1%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 5.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.52
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance53.4%EV+34.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 10:08

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 0.5odds1.00Closing chance estimate99.1%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin3.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 1.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate95.9%Closing EV estimate+0.7%margin6.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate89.2%Closing EV estimate+6.2%margin6.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.44Closing chance estimate79.0%Closing EV estimate+13.8%margin6.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate66.6%Closing EV estimate+23.2%margin7.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.52Closing chance estimate53.4%Closing EV estimate+34.7%margin6.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds3.60Closing chance estimate40.8%Closing EV estimate+47.0%margin7.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds5.25Closing chance estimate29.7%Closing EV estimate+55.7%margin6.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds7.70Closing chance estimate20.5%Closing EV estimate+57.5%margin7.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds12.00Closing chance estimate13.4%Closing EV estimate+60.3%margin5.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds18.00Closing chance estimate8.3%Closing EV estimate+48.6%margin4.6%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 11:25: over 5.5 at 2.40 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 12:24. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · Toulouse total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 14.5Actual: 9+0.90u on one unit
Liderbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds1.90
Unchanged
Model chance at recommendation
54.6%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.84
Expected value at recommendation
+3.8%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 54.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.84. Expected value at recommendation: +3.8%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 258 settled picksand +9.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 14.5
    At recommendation1.90
    Closing odds1.90
    Unchanged
    Model chance54.6%EV+3.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 08:11

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 13.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate44.3%Closing EV estimate+2.0%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate54.6%Closing EV estimate+3.7%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 15.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate64.3%Closing EV estimate+2.9%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 14.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.00
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance54.6%EV+9.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 05:42

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 13.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate44.3%Closing EV estimate+6.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate54.6%Closing EV estimate+9.2%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 15.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate64.3%Closing EV estimate+6.1%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 16.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate73.0%Closing EV estimate+5.9%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 14.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.90
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance54.6%EV+3.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 03:18

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 12.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate34.2%Closing EV estimate+0.9%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate44.3%Closing EV estimate+2.0%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 14.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate54.6%Closing EV estimate+3.7%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 15.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate64.3%Closing EV estimate+2.9%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 16.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate73.0%Closing EV estimate+2.2%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 16 Oct, 03:24: under 14.5 at 1.90 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 27.5Actual: 24−1.00u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.22
Closing odds1.77
Odds down−0.45
Model chance at recommendation
56.5%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.77
Expected value at recommendation
+25.5%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.77. Expected value at recommendation: +25.5%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 262 settled picksand +12.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • CrocobetAt recommendationover 27.5
    At recommendation2.45
    Closing odds1.95
    Odds down−0.50
    Model chance56.7%EV+38.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 07:21

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 22.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate84.8%Closing EV estimate+8.6%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 23.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate80.3%Closing EV estimate−2.1%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate75.1%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate69.3%Closing EV estimate+7.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate63.2%Closing EV estimate+10.5%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate56.7%Closing EV estimate+10.6%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate50.2%Closing EV estimate+15.5%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 29.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate43.8%Closing EV estimate+16.1%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiAt recommendationover 27.5
    At recommendation2.15
    Closing odds2.00
    Odds down−0.15
    Model chance54.4%EV+17.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 12:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 23.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate80.3%Closing EV estimate+10.0%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24.5odds1.49Closing chance estimate75.1%Closing EV estimate+11.9%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds1.56Closing chance estimate69.3%Closing EV estimate+8.1%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate63.2%Closing EV estimate+10.5%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate56.7%Closing EV estimate+13.5%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5odds2.28Closing chance estimate50.2%Closing EV estimate+14.5%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 27.5
    At recommendation2.22
    Closing odds1.77
    Odds down−0.45
    Model chance56.5%EV+25.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 12:42

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 23.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate80.3%Closing EV estimate−5.3%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate75.1%Closing EV estimate−4.7%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate69.3%Closing EV estimate−1.6%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds1.56Closing chance estimate63.2%Closing EV estimate−1.5%margin8.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5odds1.77Closing chance estimate56.7%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5odds2.02Closing chance estimate50.2%Closing EV estimate+1.5%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 29.5odds2.32Closing chance estimate43.8%Closing EV estimate+1.7%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 30.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate37.6%Closing EV estimate+1.6%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 31.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate31.8%Closing EV estimate+5.1%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 27.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.00
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance56.7%EV+13.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 11:54

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 22.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate84.8%Closing EV estimate+8.6%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 23.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate80.3%Closing EV estimate+3.5%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate75.1%Closing EV estimate+5.1%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate69.3%Closing EV estimate+7.4%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate63.2%Closing EV estimate+10.5%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate56.7%Closing EV estimate+13.5%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate50.2%Closing EV estimate+15.5%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 29.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate43.8%Closing EV estimate+20.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 27.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.00
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance56.7%EV+13.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 08:11

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 22.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate84.8%Closing EV estimate+12.8%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 23.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate80.3%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate75.1%Closing EV estimate+5.1%margin13.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 25.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate69.3%Closing EV estimate+7.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 26.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate63.2%Closing EV estimate+10.5%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 27.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate56.7%Closing EV estimate+13.5%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 28.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate50.2%Closing EV estimate+15.5%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 29.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate43.8%Closing EV estimate+18.3%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 13:15: over 27.5 at 2.22 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 16 Oct, 02:33. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Le Mans total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 12.5Actual: 11−1.00u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.92
Closing odds1.75
Odds down−0.17
Model chance at recommendation
58.1%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.73
Expected value at recommendation
+11.5%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 58.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.73. Expected value at recommendation: +11.5%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 182 settled picksand +4.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetliveAt recommendationover 12.5
    At recommendation2.25
    Closing odds1.80
    Odds down−0.45
    Model chance58.1%EV+30.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 11:54

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 9.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate80.5%Closing EV estimate+4.7%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate73.5%Closing EV estimate−3.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate65.8%Closing EV estimate−1.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate57.8%Closing EV estimate+4.1%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds2.15Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate+7.1%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate42.0%Closing EV estimate+15.5%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetAt recommendationover 12.5
    At recommendation2.10
    Closing odds1.75
    Odds down−0.35
    Model chance58.1%EV+22.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 07:21

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 9.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate80.5%Closing EV estimate+0.7%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate73.5%Closing EV estimate−5.9%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate65.8%Closing EV estimate−1.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate57.8%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate+4.6%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate42.0%Closing EV estimate+15.5%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetAt recommendationover 12.5
    At recommendation2.20
    Closing odds1.70
    Odds down−0.50
    Model chance58.1%EV+27.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 08:11

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 10.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate73.5%Closing EV estimate+6.6%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate65.8%Closing EV estimate−4.5%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate57.8%Closing EV estimate−1.7%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate+4.6%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 12.5
    At recommendation1.92
    Closing odds1.75
    Odds down−0.17
    Model chance58.1%EV+11.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 12:42

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 9.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate80.5%Closing EV estimate−4.2%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate73.5%Closing EV estimate−3.0%margin10.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate65.8%Closing EV estimate−1.2%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate57.8%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds2.07Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate+3.1%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate42.0%Closing EV estimate+2.9%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 15.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate34.6%Closing EV estimate+2.2%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 16.5odds3.45Closing chance estimate27.9%Closing EV estimate−3.7%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 12.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.83
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.8%EV+6.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 11:21

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimate57.8%Closing EV estimate+6.0%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 12.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.75
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.8%EV+1.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 08:18

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate57.8%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiClosing estimateover 12.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.81
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.8%EV+4.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 12:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 11.5odds1.73Closing chance estimate65.8%Closing EV estimate+13.9%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.81Closing chance estimate57.8%Closing EV estimate+4.7%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate+4.6%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 13:15: over 12.5 at 1.92 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 22:42. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Le Mans total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 4.5Actual: 1−1.00u on one unit
Kambirecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds1.71
Odds down−0.49
Model chance at recommendation
51.1%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.96
Expected value at recommendation
+12.4%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.96. Expected value at recommendation: +12.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365At recommendationover 4.5
    At recommendation2.00
    Closing odds2.00
    Unchanged
    Model chance50.4%EV+0.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 14 Oct, 12:54

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate50.4%Closing EV estimate+0.8%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 4.5
    At recommendation2.20
    Closing odds1.71
    Odds down−0.49
    Model chance51.1%EV+12.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 12:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate68.5%Closing EV estimate−9.6%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds1.71Closing chance estimate50.4%Closing EV estimate−13.8%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate33.5%Closing EV estimate−19.6%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetAt recommendationover 4.5
    At recommendation2.12
    Closing odds2.10
    Odds down−0.02
    Model chance50.4%EV+6.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 12:42

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 1.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate94.4%Closing EV estimate−2.8%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 2.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate84.1%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 3.5odds1.54Closing chance estimate68.5%Closing EV estimate+5.4%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate50.4%Closing EV estimate+5.8%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds3.00Closing chance estimate33.5%Closing EV estimate+0.6%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds4.55Closing chance estimate20.2%Closing EV estimate−8.0%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds6.90Closing chance estimate11.1%Closing EV estimate−23.3%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.66
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance50.4%EV-16.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 08:18

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.66Closing chance estimate50.4%Closing EV estimate−16.3%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.80
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance50.4%EV-9.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 03:08

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate68.5%Closing EV estimate−6.2%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate50.4%Closing EV estimate−9.3%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate33.5%Closing EV estimate−14.5%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance50.4%EV-6.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 03:18

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate68.5%Closing EV estimate−4.1%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate50.4%Closing EV estimate−6.8%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate33.5%Closing EV estimate−11.2%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance50.4%EV-6.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 08:11

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 3.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate68.5%Closing EV estimate−4.1%margin13.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate50.4%Closing EV estimate−6.8%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate33.5%Closing EV estimate−12.9%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 01:22: over 4.5 at 2.20 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 07:22. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results
Return−68.3%ROI · 6 units staked
Profit−4.10units
W / L1 / 5picks
Avg odds2.12settled picks
Recorded picks61 matches

Around this match

CompetitionLigue 1Home teamLe MansAway teamToulouseRefereeAurelien Petit
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