Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart 1-0 — Bundesliga

BundesligaBundesliga 26/27

Hamburger SV

1–0

HT 0–0

VfB Stuttgart

Sat 17 Oct·07:30·Matchday 6·Volksparkstadion·Hamburger SV won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

5Corners9
3Cards0
14Shots24
3Shots on target5
12Fouls9
13Throw-ins16
12Goal kicks8
5Saves2
19Tackles10
7Interceptions7
7Dribbles9

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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0Free available0VIP available5Recorded Free2Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

07:30Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartBundesliga6 won / 1 lost · +4.99u · 7 picks

Corners · Hamburger SV total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 4.5Actual: 5+1.17u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1715 Oct, 06:24

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 56.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.78
Expected value at recommendation: +22.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.78. Expected value at recommendation: +22.3%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 95 settled picksand +2.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation2.17
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.4%EV+22.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.6%EV+12.6%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.6%EV+7.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.6%EV+4.5%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.6%EV+7.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.12
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.6%EV+13.6%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 06:24: over 4.5 at 2.17 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 15 Oct, 11:08. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · VfB Stuttgart total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 5.5Actual: 9−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0012 Oct, 18:18

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 55.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.80
Expected value at recommendation: +11.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.80. Expected value at recommendation: +11.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 5.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.6%EV+11.2%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationunder 5.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.6%EV+3.1%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.7%EV+10.0%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.96
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.7%EV+5.2%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.7%EV+12.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.7%EV+7.3%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 18:18: under 5.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 18:42. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 22.5Actual: 21+0.88u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8815 Oct, 13:30

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 57.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.75
Expected value at recommendation: +8.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 57.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.75. Expected value at recommendation: +8.0%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 241 settled picksand +8.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 22.5
At recommendation1.88
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.4%EV+8.0%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 22.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.5%EV+23.5%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 22.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.45
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.5%EV+40.8%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 22.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.45
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.5%EV+40.8%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 13:30: under 22.5 at 1.88 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 15 Oct, 22:13. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · VfB Stuttgart total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 10.5Actual: 9+1.20u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.2017 Oct, 03:09

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 53.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.86
Expected value at recommendation: +18.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 53.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.86. Expected value at recommendation: +18.5%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 265 settled picksand +9.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 10.5
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.9%EV+18.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.7%EV+15.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.7%EV+23.4%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.12
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.7%EV+13.8%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 03:09: under 10.5 at 2.20 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 03:49. The original pick remains in the results.

Goal kicks · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 15.5Actual: 20+0.90u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9016 Oct, 22:59

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 55.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.81
Expected value at recommendation: +5.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 55.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.81. Expected value at recommendation: +5.2%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 48 settled picksand +11.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

CrocobetAt recommendationover 15.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.4%EV+2.5%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 15.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.4%EV+5.2%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 15.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.4%EV+2.5%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 15.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.4%EV-0.3%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 16 Oct, 22:59: over 15.5 at 1.90 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Throw-ins · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 34.5Actual: 29+0.96u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9617 Oct, 03:42

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 52.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.91
Expected value at recommendation: +3.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 52.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.91. Expected value at recommendation: +3.0%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 310 settled picksand +1.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 34.5
At recommendation1.96
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance52.6%EV+3.0%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 34.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.5%EV-0.2%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 34.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.5%EV+2.4%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 03:42: under 34.5 at 1.96 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 07:10. The original pick remains in the results.

Throw-ins · VfB Stuttgart total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 18.5Actual: 16+0.88u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8816 Oct, 22:59

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 58.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.71
Expected value at recommendation: +10.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 58.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.71. Expected value at recommendation: +10.1%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 113 settled picksand +4.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 18.5
At recommendation1.88
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance58.6%EV+10.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 18.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance58.5%EV+5.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 18.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance58.5%EV+5.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 16 Oct, 22:59: under 18.5 at 1.88 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return+71.3%ROI · 7 units staked

Profit+4.99units

W / L6 / 1picks

Avg odds2.00settled picks

Recorded picks71 matches

Around this match

CompetitionBundesliga Home teamHamburger SV Away teamVfB Stuttgart RefereeRobert Hartmann

Match overview

Matches

Corners · Hamburger SV total

Corners · VfB Stuttgart total

Fouls · match total

Fouls · VfB Stuttgart total

Goal kicks · match total

Throw-ins · match total

Throw-ins · VfB Stuttgart total

This match

Around this match

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