Fulham vs Hull City 1-0 — Premier League

Premier LeaguePremier League 26/27

Fulham

1–0

HT 1–0

Hull City

Sat 17 Oct·08:00·Matchday 7·Craven Cottage·Fulham won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

10Corners2
2Cards2
18Shots5
6Shots on target0
13Fouls11
26Throw-ins14
1Offsides2
4Goal kicks9
0Saves5
16Tackles19
6Interceptions4
15Dribbles4

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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0Free available0VIP available3Recorded Free2Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

08:00FulhamvHull CityPremier League1 won / 4 lost · −3.05u · 5 picks

Fouls · Fulham total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 9.5Actual: 13+0.95u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9516 Oct, 15:22

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 62.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.61
Expected value at recommendation: +21.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 62.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.61. Expected value at recommendation: +21.8%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 62 settled picksand +6.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation2.45
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance62.4%EV+52.8%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance62.4%EV+21.8%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.4%EV+37.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.25
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.4%EV+40.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 16 Oct, 15:22: over 9.5 at 1.95 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goal kicks · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 15.5Actual: 13−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9516 Oct, 19:48

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.95
Expected value at recommendation: +0.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 51.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.95. Expected value at recommendation: +0.4%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 48 settled picksand +11.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 15.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.5%EV+0.4%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 15.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.5%EV-15.1%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 15.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.5%EV-15.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 15.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.5%EV-17.6%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 16 Oct, 19:48: over 15.5 at 1.95 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Offsides · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 3.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0517 Oct, 02:06

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.97
Expected value at recommendation: +4.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 51.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.97. Expected value at recommendation: +4.5%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 64 settled picksand +13.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.0%EV+4.5%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.0%EV+7.0%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.0%EV+7.0%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.38
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.0%EV-29.7%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 02:06: over 3.5 at 2.05 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · Hull City total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 10.5Actual: 5−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9114 Oct, 00:52

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.83
Expected value at recommendation: +4.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 54.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.83. Expected value at recommendation: +4.7%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 131 settled picksand +0.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 10.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.8%EV+4.7%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiAt recommendationover 10.5
At recommendation2.23
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.8%EV+22.3%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.4%EV-4.9%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.4%EV-7.6%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.4%EV-7.6%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.88
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.4%EV+2.2%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 00:52: over 10.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 02:13. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Hull City total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 3.5Actual: 0−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1017 Oct, 03:50

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 59.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.69
Expected value at recommendation: +24.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 59.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.69. Expected value at recommendation: +24.8%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 132 settled picksand +6.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance59.4%EV+24.8%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.7%EV+31.3%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.7%EV+37.2%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.17
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.7%EV+29.5%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.7%EV+31.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.07
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.7%EV+23.5%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 03:50: over 3.5 at 2.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−61.0%ROI · 5 units staked

Profit−3.05units

W / L1 / 4picks

Avg odds1.99settled picks

Recorded picks51 matches

Around this match

CompetitionPremier League Home teamFulham Away teamHull City RefereeChris Kavanagh

Match overview

Matches

Fouls · Fulham total

Goal kicks · match total

Offsides · match total

Shots · Hull City total

Shots on target · Hull City total

This match

Around this match

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