Fluminense vs Palmeiras 1-2 — CONMEBOL Libertadores

CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores 2026

Fluminense

1–2

HT 0–1

Palmeiras

Wed 14 Oct·18:30·Semi final·Estádio do Maracanã·Palmeiras won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

6Corners0
1Cards3
11Shots7
3Shots on target5
9Fouls15
16Throw-ins14
2Offsides2
3Goal kicks9
3Saves2
14Tackles24
2Interceptions13
11Dribbles3

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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0Free available0VIP available8Recorded Free2Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

18:30FluminensevPalmeirasCONMEBOL Libertadores4 won / 6 lost · −2.14u · 10 picks

Cards · Palmeiras total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 2.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0013 Oct, 15:46

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 58.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.70
Expected value at recommendation: +17.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 58.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.70. Expected value at recommendation: +17.9%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 108 settled picksand +7.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance58.9%EV+17.9%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.1%EV+9.4%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.1%EV+15.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.92
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.1%EV+13.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 15:46: under 2.5 at 2.00 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 14:19. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 9.5Actual: 6+0.96u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9613 Oct, 11:45

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 62.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.61
Expected value at recommendation: +22.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 62.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.61. Expected value at recommendation: +22.0%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 41 settled picksand +10.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 9.5
At recommendation1.96
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance62.3%EV+22.0%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.0%EV+16.5%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.0%EV+9.9%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.0%EV+9.9%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.0%EV+9.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.87
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.0%EV+14.2%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.0%EV+16.0%
16 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 11:45: under 9.5 at 1.96 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 12:07. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Fluminense total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 6−1.00u on one unit

Paddy Powerrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0013 Oct, 10:15

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 53.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.87
Expected value at recommendation: +7.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 53.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.87. Expected value at recommendation: +7.0%.

At recommendation, Paddy Power’s overall market record had 66 settled picksand +0.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Paddy Powerresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.5%EV+7.0%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.8%EV+5.6%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.8%EV+0.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.8%EV-2.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.79
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.8%EV-5.5%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.8%EV+0.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.8%EV+2.9%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 10:15: under 4.5 at 2.00 with Paddy Power. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 15:34. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Palmeiras total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 0+0.95u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.958 Oct, 04:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 61.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.63
Expected value at recommendation: +19.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 61.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.63. Expected value at recommendation: +19.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365At recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance63.8%EV+21.8%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance63.7%EV+24.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance61.4%EV+19.6%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance63.7%EV+21.0%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.92
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance63.7%EV+22.3%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance63.0%EV+13.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.87
No saved recommendation
Model chance63.0%EV+17.8%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:51: under 4.5 at 1.95 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 11:12. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 24.5Actual: 24+1.05u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0514 Oct, 06:41

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 71.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.41
Expected value at recommendation: +45.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 71.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.41. Expected value at recommendation: +45.6%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 230 settled picksand +9.0% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 24.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance71.0%EV+45.6%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 06:41: under 24.5 at 2.05 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 08:00. The original pick remains in the results.

Offsides · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 2.5Actual: 4−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1014 Oct, 04:54

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.99
Expected value at recommendation: +5.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 50.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.99. Expected value at recommendation: +5.9%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 98 settled picksand +3.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

CrocobetAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.4%EV+5.9%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.4%EV+5.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.3%EV+1.1%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 04:54: under 2.5 at 2.10 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 09:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 6.5Actual: 8−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation3.758 Oct, 04:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.94
Expected value at recommendation: +94.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.94. Expected value at recommendation: +94.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 6.5
At recommendation3.75
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.8%EV+94.1%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds3.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance43.6%EV+56.9%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:51: under 6.5 at 3.75 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 10:42. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Fluminense total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 3.5Actual: 3+0.90u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.908 Oct, 04:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 55.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.80
Expected value at recommendation: +5.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.80. Expected value at recommendation: +5.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.6%EV+5.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.35
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.3%EV+15.9%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.3%EV+23.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.3%EV+28.2%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.52
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.3%EV+24.3%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:51: under 3.5 at 1.90 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 10:42. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Palmeiras total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 5−1.00u on one unit

BetMGM UKrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.158 Oct, 04:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 78.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.28
Expected value at recommendation: +69.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 78.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.28. Expected value at recommendation: +69.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance78.7%EV+69.2%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.71
No saved recommendation
Model chance74.0%EV+26.6%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance74.0%EV+22.1%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance74.0%EV+25.8%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance74.0%EV+25.8%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.55
No saved recommendation
Model chance74.0%EV+14.7%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:51: under 4.5 at 2.15 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Throw-ins · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 37.5Actual: 30−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.4514 Oct, 04:54

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 59.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.68
Expected value at recommendation: +45.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 59.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.68. Expected value at recommendation: +45.9%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 31 settled picksand +20.6% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 37.5
At recommendation2.45
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance59.5%EV+45.9%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 37.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.97
No saved recommendation
Model chance58.3%EV+14.9%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 04:54: over 37.5 at 2.45 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−21.4%ROI · 10 units staked

Profit−2.14units

W / L4 / 6picks

Avg odds2.23settled picks

Recorded picks101 matches

Around this match

CompetitionCONMEBOL Libertadores Home teamFluminense Away teamPalmeiras RefereeFacundo Raul Tello Figueroa

Match overview

Matches

Cards · Palmeiras total

Corners · match total

Corners · Fluminense total

Corners · Palmeiras total

Fouls · match total

Offsides · match total

Shots on target · match total

Shots on target · Fluminense total

Shots on target · Palmeiras total

Throw-ins · match total

This match

Around this match

Previous meetings

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