FC Bayern München vs RB Leipzig 6-1 — Bundesliga

BundesligaBundesliga 26/27

FC Bayern München

6–1

HT 3–0

RB Leipzig

Sat 17 Oct·10:30·Matchday 6·Allianz Arena·FC Bayern München won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

11Corners3
1Cards0
29Shots12
17Shots on target4
15Fouls6
15Throw-ins13
4Offsides2
3Goal kicks6
3Saves11
13Tackles19
12Interceptions13
3Dribbles11

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

0Free available0VIP available8Recorded Free3Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

10:30FC Bayern MünchenvRB LeipzigBundesliga5 won / 6 lost · −0.88u · 11 picks

Fouls · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 20.5Actual: 21−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9515 Oct, 11:00

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 84.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.19
Expected value at recommendation: +65.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 84.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.19. Expected value at recommendation: +65.1%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 241 settled picksand +8.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 20.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance84.6%EV+65.1%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 20.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance85.8%EV+50.2%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 20.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance85.8%EV+50.2%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 20.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance85.8%EV+50.2%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 11:00: under 20.5 at 1.95 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 15 Oct, 22:13. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · FC Bayern München total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 9.5Actual: 15−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9715 Oct, 11:00

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 73.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.37
Expected value at recommendation: +43.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 73.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.37. Expected value at recommendation: +43.9%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 138 settled picksand +2.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 9.5
At recommendation1.97
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance73.0%EV+43.9%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance74.3%EV+41.1%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance74.3%EV+44.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance74.3%EV+41.1%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 11:00: under 9.5 at 1.97 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 15 Oct, 12:10. The original pick remains in the results.

Goal kicks · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 15.5Actual: 9−1.00u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9517 Oct, 04:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.95
Expected value at recommendation: +0.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 51.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.95. Expected value at recommendation: +0.4%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 103 settled picksand +1.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationover 15.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.5%EV+0.4%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 15.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.4%EV+0.2%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 15.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.4%EV+0.2%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 04:51: over 15.5 at 1.95 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Offsides · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 3.5Actual: 6−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.2017 Oct, 03:14

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 2.00
Expected value at recommendation: +10.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 50.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +10.2%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 112 settled picksand +4.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.1%EV+10.2%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.1%EV+5.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.1%EV+7.7%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 03:14: under 3.5 at 2.20 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 09:42. The original pick remains in the results.

Offsides · FC Bayern München total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 2.5Actual: 4−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8017 Oct, 04:52

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 59.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.68
Expected value at recommendation: +7.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 59.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.68. Expected value at recommendation: +7.5%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 93 settled picksand +22.6% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation1.80
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance59.7%EV+7.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.8%EV+4.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.8%EV+7.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 04:52: under 2.5 at 1.80 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Saves · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 7.5Actual: 14+0.95u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9517 Oct, 09:02

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 60.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.67
Expected value at recommendation: +17.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 60.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.67. Expected value at recommendation: +17.0%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 66 settled picksand +12.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 7.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance60.0%EV+17.0%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.9%EV-13.2%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.71
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.9%EV-1.1%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 09:02: over 7.5 at 1.95 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · RB Leipzig total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 9.5Actual: 12−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9815 Oct, 06:24

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 60.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.67
Expected value at recommendation: +18.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 60.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.67. Expected value at recommendation: +18.7%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 32 settled picksand +14.9% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 9.5
At recommendation1.98
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance60.0%EV+18.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.5%EV+17.5%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.25
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.5%EV+38.5%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.5%EV+41.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.5%EV+41.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.37
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.5%EV+45.8%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 06:24: under 9.5 at 1.98 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 12.5Actual: 21+0.92u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9210 Oct, 15:33

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.85
Expected value at recommendation: +4.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.85. Expected value at recommendation: +4.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365At recommendationover 12.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance63.5%EV+27.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationover 12.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance63.5%EV+20.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 12.5
At recommendation1.92
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.2%EV+4.0%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationover 12.5
At recommendation2.02
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance67.0%EV+35.3%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance63.4%EV+23.6%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance63.4%EV+14.1%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 15:33: over 12.5 at 1.92 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 21:22. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · FC Bayern München total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 8.5Actual: 17+1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0015 Oct, 06:18

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 64.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.56
Expected value at recommendation: +28.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 64.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.56. Expected value at recommendation: +28.3%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 51 settled picksand +8.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 8.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance64.1%EV+28.3%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationover 8.5
At recommendation2.07
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance64.2%EV+32.8%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance69.4%EV+24.9%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance69.4%EV+21.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.98
No saved recommendation
Model chance69.4%EV+37.3%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance69.4%EV+21.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 06:18: over 8.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 16 Oct, 15:14. The original pick remains in the results.

Throw-ins · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 29.5Actual: 28+1.35u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.3517 Oct, 03:14

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 69.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.45
Expected value at recommendation: +62.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 69.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.45. Expected value at recommendation: +62.3%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 421 settled picksand +0.8% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 29.5
At recommendation2.35
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance69.1%EV+62.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationunder 29.5
At recommendation2.30
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance70.7%EV+62.5%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 29.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 03:14: under 29.5 at 2.35 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 10:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Throw-ins · RB Leipzig total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 14.5Actual: 13+0.90u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9016 Oct, 23:06

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 77.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.30
Expected value at recommendation: +46.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 77.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.30. Expected value at recommendation: +46.7%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 113 settled picksand +4.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 14.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance77.2%EV+46.7%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.42
No saved recommendation
Model chance78.9%EV+12.0%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 16 Oct, 23:06: under 14.5 at 1.90 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−8.0%ROI · 11 units staked

Profit−0.88units

W / L5 / 6picks

Avg odds2.00settled picks

Recorded picks111 matches

Around this match

CompetitionBundesliga Home teamFC Bayern München Away teamRB Leipzig RefereeTobias Stieler

Match overview

Matches

Fouls · match total

Fouls · FC Bayern München total

Goal kicks · match total

Offsides · match total

Offsides · FC Bayern München total

Saves · match total

Shots · RB Leipzig total

Shots on target · match total

Shots on target · FC Bayern München total

Throw-ins · match total

Throw-ins · RB Leipzig total

This match

Around this match

Previous meetings

On this page

This category

StatsGem