Everton vs Chelsea 0-2 — Premier League

Premier LeaguePremier League 26/27

Everton

0–2

HT 0–0

Chelsea

Sat 17 Oct·05:30·Matchday 7·Everton Stadium·Chelsea won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

5Corners7
3Cards4
6Shots18
5Shots on target7
8Fouls15
21Throw-ins20
4Offsides1
4Goal kicks10
4Saves5
7Tackles13
4Interceptions4
6Dribbles6

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

05:30EvertonvChelseaPremier League2 won / 2 lost · −0.14u · 4 picks

Fouls · Everton total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 10.5Actual: 8−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0016 Oct, 15:22

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 60.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.66
Expected value at recommendation: +21.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 60.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.66. Expected value at recommendation: +21.0%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 62 settled picksand +6.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 10.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance60.5%EV+21.0%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.8%EV-10.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.8%EV-10.3%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.8%EV-10.3%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 16 Oct, 15:22: over 10.5 at 2.00 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goals · Chelsea total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 1.5Actual: 2+0.88u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8814 Oct, 08:09

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 59.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.69
Expected value at recommendation: +11.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 59.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.69. Expected value at recommendation: +11.5%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 39 settled picksand +5.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

CrocobetAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance60.4%EV+17.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation1.88
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance59.3%EV+11.5%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.4%EV+10.7%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.4%EV+17.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.89
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.4%EV+14.1%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.4%EV+14.7%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 08:09: over 1.5 at 1.88 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · Chelsea total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 14.5Actual: 18+0.98u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9815 Oct, 05:42

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 53.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.89
Expected value at recommendation: +5.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 53.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.89. Expected value at recommendation: +5.1%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 124 settled picksand +6.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

CrocobetAt recommendationover 14.5
At recommendation2.30
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.8%EV+23.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 14.5
At recommendation1.98
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.1%EV+5.1%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.0%EV+12.7%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.0%EV+15.4%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.0%EV+12.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.22
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.0%EV+22.0%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 05:42: over 14.5 at 1.98 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Throw-ins · Everton total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 17.5Actual: 21−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9215 Oct, 05:42

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 60.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.66
Expected value at recommendation: +16.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 60.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.66. Expected value at recommendation: +16.1%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 96 settled picksand +7.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 17.5
At recommendation1.92
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance60.5%EV+16.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 17.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.2%EV+10.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 17.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.2%EV+7.1%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 17.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.2%EV+4.0%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 05:42: under 17.5 at 1.92 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 15 Oct, 15:28. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−3.5%ROI · 4 units staked

Profit−0.14units

W / L2 / 2picks

Avg odds1.95settled picks

Recorded picks41 matches

Around this match

CompetitionPremier League Home teamEverton Away teamChelsea RefereePaul Tierney

Match overview

Matches

Fouls · Everton total

Goals · Chelsea total

Shots · Chelsea total

Throw-ins · Everton total

This match

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