Derby County vs Wrexham 1-1 — Championship

ChampionshipChampionship 26/27

Derby County

1–1

HT 1–0

Wrexham

Sat 10 Oct·08:00·Matchday 9·Pride Park Stadium·Drawn

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

1Corners8
3Cards2
10Shots13
4Shots on target3
10Fouls6
27Throw-ins28
1Offsides3
5Goal kicks8
2Saves3
21Tackles15
23Interceptions6
6Dribbles4

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

08:00Derby CountyvWrexhamChampionship0 won / 4 lost · −4.00u · 4 picks

Cards · Wrexham total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 1.5Actual: 2−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.059 Oct, 06:22

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.83
Expected value at recommendation: +12.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.83. Expected value at recommendation: +12.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.8%EV+10.2%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.7%EV+14.9%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.7%EV+12.2%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.7%EV+17.6%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 06:22: under 1.5 at 2.05 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 07:22. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Wrexham total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 5.5Actual: 8−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.859 Oct, 00:06

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 57.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.73
Expected value at recommendation: +7.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 57.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.73. Expected value at recommendation: +7.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 5.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.9%EV+7.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.9%EV+5.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.55
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.9%EV-5.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.62
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.9%EV-1.4%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.55
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.9%EV-5.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.9%EV+5.1%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.9%EV+5.3%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 00:06: under 5.5 at 1.85 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Goals · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 2.5Actual: 2−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.058 Oct, 10:42

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.83
Expected value at recommendation: +12.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.83. Expected value at recommendation: +12.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.7%EV+12.1%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Betfair ExchangeAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation2.04
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.7%EV+11.6%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.7%EV+3.9%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.7%EV+3.9%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.7%EV+3.9%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
PinnacleAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation2.04
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.7%EV+11.6%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.6%EV-0.8%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.92
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.6%EV+2.9%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 10:42: over 2.5 at 2.05 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 11:26. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 24.5Actual: 23−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9010 Oct, 05:42

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 61.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.62
Expected value at recommendation: +17.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 61.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.62. Expected value at recommendation: +17.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 24.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance61.8%EV+17.4%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 24.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.58
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.8%EV-2.4%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 05:42: over 24.5 at 1.90 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−100.0%ROI · 4 units staked

Profit−4.00units

W / L0 / 4picks

Avg odds1.96settled picks

Recorded picks41 matches

Around this match

CompetitionChampionship Home teamDerby County Away teamWrexham RefereeMatt Donohue

Match overview

Matches

Cards · Wrexham total

Corners · Wrexham total

Goals · match total

Shots · match total

This match

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