Chelsea vs Bournemouth 5-1 — Premier League

Premier LeaguePremier League 26/27

Chelsea

5–1

HT 2–0

Bournemouth

Sat 10 Oct·08:00·Matchday 6·Stamford Bridge·Chelsea won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

1Corners7
0Cards4
10Shots9
6Shots on target4
7Fouls15
16Throw-ins16
1Offsides0
3Goal kicks1
3Saves1
18Tackles18
9Interceptions13
7Dribbles5

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

08:00ChelseavBournemouthPremier League6 won / 5 lost · +0.65u · 11 picks

Cards · Chelsea total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 1.5Actual: 0+0.95u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.957 Oct, 10:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.95
Expected value at recommendation: +0.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.95. Expected value at recommendation: +0.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

KambiAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation2.28
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance52.1%EV+18.8%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.5%EV+0.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.0%EV-3.9%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.0%EV-3.9%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance48.0%EV-6.3%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: under 1.5 at 1.95 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 14:51. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Chelsea total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 5.5Actual: 1+1.15u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.158 Oct, 10:23

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 55.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.80
Expected value at recommendation: +19.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.80. Expected value at recommendation: +19.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 5.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.7%EV+19.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiAt recommendationunder 5.5
At recommendation2.14
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.7%EV+19.2%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationunder 5.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.7%EV+19.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationunder 5.5
At recommendation2.25
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.7%EV+25.3%
12 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.1%EV+28.4%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.1%EV+28.4%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.1%EV+22.3%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 10:23: under 5.5 at 2.15 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 03:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 21.5Actual: 22+0.92u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.928 Oct, 08:11

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 52.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.91
Expected value at recommendation: +0.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 52.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.91. Expected value at recommendation: +0.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 21.5
At recommendation1.92
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance52.4%EV+0.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 21.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV-12.0%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 21.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV-14.5%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 21.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.3%EV-14.5%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 08:11: over 21.5 at 1.92 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 04:47. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · Chelsea total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 9.5Actual: 7−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.908 Oct, 08:11

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 55.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.82
Expected value at recommendation: +4.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.82. Expected value at recommendation: +4.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.1%EV+4.7%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.8%EV-9.6%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.8%EV-12.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.8%EV-12.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 08:11: over 9.5 at 1.90 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 17:51. The original pick remains in the results.

Goal kicks · Bournemouth total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 8.5Actual: 1+0.95u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9510 Oct, 03:42

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 53.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.86
Expected value at recommendation: +5.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.86. Expected value at recommendation: +5.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 8.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.8%EV+5.0%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.6%EV+9.2%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.6%EV+6.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 03:42: under 8.5 at 1.95 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 27.5Actual: 19−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.157 Oct, 10:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 61.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.63
Expected value at recommendation: +32.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 61.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.63. Expected value at recommendation: +32.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365At recommendationover 27.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.3%EV+3.7%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 27.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.38
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.3%EV+24.6%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 27.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance61.7%EV+32.6%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 27.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.3%EV+4.7%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 27.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.3%EV+2.1%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 27.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.3%EV-3.2%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: over 27.5 at 2.15 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 01:19. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Chelsea total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 14.5Actual: 10−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.008 Oct, 04:34

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 72.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.39
Expected value at recommendation: +44.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 72.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.39. Expected value at recommendation: +44.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 14.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance72.3%EV+44.5%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV-1.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV-19.0%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV-16.5%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV-19.0%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.77
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV-10.4%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:34: over 14.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 17:58. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Bournemouth total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 11.5Actual: 9−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.988 Oct, 04:36

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 55.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.79
Expected value at recommendation: +10.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.79. Expected value at recommendation: +10.7%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365At recommendationover 11.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.9%EV+11.9%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 11.5
At recommendation1.98
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.9%EV+10.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationover 11.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.9%EV+11.9%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance66.6%EV+26.5%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance66.6%EV+19.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance66.6%EV+9.9%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:36: over 11.5 at 1.98 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 05:02. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Chelsea total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 5.5Actual: 6−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.888 Oct, 10:23

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 61.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.62
Expected value at recommendation: +16.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 61.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.62. Expected value at recommendation: +16.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 5.5
At recommendation1.88
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance61.8%EV+16.1%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance67.3%EV+21.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance67.3%EV+17.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance67.3%EV+21.1%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.53
No saved recommendation
Model chance67.3%EV+2.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance67.3%EV+17.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 10:23: under 5.5 at 1.88 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Throw-ins · Chelsea total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 17.5Actual: 16+0.83u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.838 Oct, 08:11

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 57.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.73
Expected value at recommendation: +5.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 57.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.73. Expected value at recommendation: +5.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 17.5
At recommendation1.83
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.9%EV+5.9%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 17.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.1%EV+18.3%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 17.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.1%EV+12.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 17.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.1%EV+12.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 08:11: under 17.5 at 1.83 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 04:26. The original pick remains in the results.

Throw-ins · Bournemouth total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 16.5Actual: 16+0.85u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.858 Oct, 08:11

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 65.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.52
Expected value at recommendation: +21.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 65.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.52. Expected value at recommendation: +21.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 16.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance65.9%EV+21.8%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 16.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.0%EV+20.1%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 16.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.0%EV+17.1%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 08:11: under 16.5 at 1.85 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 17:51. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return+5.9%ROI · 11 units staked

Profit+0.65units

W / L6 / 5picks

Avg odds1.96settled picks

Recorded picks111 matches

Around this match

CompetitionPremier League Home teamChelsea Away teamBournemouth RefereeSamuel Barrott

Match overview

Matches

Cards · Chelsea total

Corners · Chelsea total

Fouls · match total

Fouls · Chelsea total

Goal kicks · Bournemouth total

Shots · match total

Shots · Chelsea total

Shots · Bournemouth total

Shots on target · Chelsea total

Throw-ins · Chelsea total

Throw-ins · Bournemouth total

This match

Around this match

Previous meetings

On this page

This category

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