Chapecoense vs Athletico 1-4 — Brasileirão Série A

Brasileirão Série ABrasileiro Serie A 2026

Chapecoense

1–4

HT 0–3

Athletico

Mon 12 Oct·16:30·Matchday 30·Arena Condá·Athletico won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

6Corners7
2Cards1
21Shots11
7Shots on target8
17Fouls11
17Throw-ins9
1Offsides0
4Goal kicks16
4Saves6
6Tackles8
8Interceptions5
4Dribbles8

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

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We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

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0Free available0VIP available4Recorded Free2Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

16:30ChapecoensevAthleticoBrasileirão Série A4 won / 2 lost · +1.68u · 6 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 4.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Paddy Powerrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9512 Oct, 05:37

Closing odds1.9512 Oct, 15:20

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 51.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.93
Expected value at recommendation: +1.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.93. Expected value at recommendation: +1.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Paddy Powerresult priceAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds1.95
Unchanged
Model chance51.9%EV+1.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 15:20
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate83.9%Closing EV estimate−7.8%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:20
- over 3.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate67.7%Closing EV estimate−7.6%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:20
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate49.2%Closing EV estimate−4.1%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:20
Bet365Closing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-11.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:13
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate49.2%Closing EV estimate−11.5%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:13
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.88
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-7.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 16:10
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.88Closing chance estimate49.2%Closing EV estimate−7.5%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:10
BetliveClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-13.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 23:00
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate83.9%Closing EV estimate−6.9%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 23:00
- over 3.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate67.7%Closing EV estimate−9.9%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 23:00
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate49.2%Closing EV estimate−13.9%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 23:00
- over 5.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate32.0%Closing EV estimate−21.5%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 23:00
- over 6.5odds3.60Closing chance estimate18.7%Closing EV estimate−32.5%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:11
CrocobetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-13.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 03:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate83.9%Closing EV estimate−6.1%margin13.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 03:01
- over 3.5odds1.34Closing chance estimate67.7%Closing EV estimate−9.2%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 03:01
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate49.2%Closing EV estimate−13.9%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 23:01
- over 5.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate32.0%Closing EV estimate−19.9%margin13.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 03:01
- over 6.5odds3.65Closing chance estimate18.7%Closing EV estimate−31.6%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 03:01
KambiClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.88
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-7.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 16:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate67.7%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin10.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.88Closing chance estimate49.2%Closing EV estimate−7.5%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
- over 5.5odds2.63Closing chance estimate32.0%Closing EV estimate−15.8%margin10.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
LiderbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-13.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 23:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate83.9%Closing EV estimate−6.9%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 23:01
- over 3.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate67.7%Closing EV estimate−9.9%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 23:01
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate49.2%Closing EV estimate−13.9%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 23:01
- over 5.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate32.0%Closing EV estimate−21.5%margin14.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 23:01
- over 6.5odds3.60Closing chance estimate18.7%Closing EV estimate−32.5%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:13
SuperbetClosing estimateover 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-9.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 13:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds3.55Closing chance estimate99.0%Closing EV estimate+251.4%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 23:02
- over 1.5odds12.00Closing chance estimate94.4%Closing EV estimate+1032.6%margin—Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:15
- over 2.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate83.9%Closing EV estimate−3.6%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 13:32
- over 3.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate67.7%Closing EV estimate−5.2%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 13:32
- over 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate49.2%Closing EV estimate−9.0%margin7.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 13:32
- over 5.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate32.0%Closing EV estimate−18.3%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 13:32
- over 6.5odds3.65Closing chance estimate18.7%Closing EV estimate−31.6%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 13:32

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 05:37: over 4.5 at 1.95 with Paddy Power. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 06:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Cards · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 3+0.88u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8811 Oct, 03:09

Closing odds1.8812 Oct, 13:32

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 56.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.79
Expected value at recommendation: +5.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.79. Expected value at recommendation: +5.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.83
Closing odds1.77
Odds down−0.06
Model chance56.0%EV+2.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 16:10
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5odds1.77Closing chance estimate50.8%Closing EV estimate−10.1%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:10
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.88
Closing odds1.88
Unchanged
Model chance56.0%EV+5.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 13:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 0.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate1.0%Closing EV estimate−98.7%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 23:02
- under 2.5odds4.40Closing chance estimate16.1%Closing EV estimate−29.0%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 13:32
- under 3.5odds2.67Closing chance estimate32.3%Closing EV estimate−13.9%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 13:32
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.88Closing chance estimate50.8%Closing EV estimate−4.5%margin7.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 13:32
- under 5.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate68.0%Closing EV estimate−1.4%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 13:32
- under 6.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate81.3%Closing EV estimate−0.9%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 13:32
Bet365Closing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV-3.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 10 Oct, 01:13
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate50.8%Closing EV estimate−3.0%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:13
BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV-11.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 23:00
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate16.1%Closing EV estimate−32.2%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 23:00
- under 3.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate32.3%Closing EV estimate−16.1%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 23:00
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate50.8%Closing EV estimate−11.1%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 23:00
- under 5.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate68.0%Closing EV estimate−6.9%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 23:00
- under 6.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate81.3%Closing EV estimate−5.7%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:11
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV-11.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 03:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds4.10Closing chance estimate16.1%Closing EV estimate−33.8%margin13.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 03:01
- under 3.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate32.3%Closing EV estimate−17.7%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 03:01
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate50.8%Closing EV estimate−11.1%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 23:01
- under 5.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate68.0%Closing EV estimate−7.6%margin13.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 03:01
- under 6.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate81.3%Closing EV estimate−6.6%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 03:01
KambiClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.77
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV-10.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 16:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate32.3%Closing EV estimate−19.4%margin10.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.77Closing chance estimate50.8%Closing EV estimate−10.1%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
- under 5.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate68.0%Closing EV estimate−6.2%margin10.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV-11.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 11 Oct, 23:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate16.1%Closing EV estimate−32.2%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 23:01
- under 3.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate32.3%Closing EV estimate−16.1%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 23:01
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate50.8%Closing EV estimate−11.1%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 23:01
- under 5.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate68.0%Closing EV estimate−8.2%margin14.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 23:01
- under 6.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate81.3%Closing EV estimate−5.7%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 10 Oct, 01:13
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.8%EV-12.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 15:20
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds5.50Closing chance estimate16.1%Closing EV estimate−11.2%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:20
- under 3.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate32.3%Closing EV estimate−9.7%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:20
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimate50.8%Closing EV estimate−12.2%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:20

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 03:09: under 4.5 at 1.88 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 22:47. The original pick remains in the results.

Goals · Athletico total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 1.5Actual: 4+0.90u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9010 Oct, 01:19

Closing odds1.7012 Oct, 15:30

Odds down−0.20

Model chance at recommendation: 55.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.80
Expected value at recommendation: +6.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.80. Expected value at recommendation: +6.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds1.70
Odds down−0.20
Model chance55.8%EV+6.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 16:00
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate86.5%Closing EV estimate−2.3%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:00
- over 1.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate58.0%Closing EV estimate−1.5%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:30
- over 2.5odds3.00Closing chance estimate29.8%Closing EV estimate−10.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:00
- over 3.5odds5.40Closing chance estimate12.2%Closing EV estimate−34.2%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:00
- over 4.5odds7.80Closing chance estimate4.1%Closing EV estimate−67.9%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:01
CrocobetAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds1.70
Odds down−0.20
Model chance55.8%EV+6.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 16:00
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate86.5%Closing EV estimate−2.3%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:00
- over 1.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate58.0%Closing EV estimate−1.5%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:30
- over 2.5odds3.00Closing chance estimate29.8%Closing EV estimate−10.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:00
- over 3.5odds5.50Closing chance estimate12.2%Closing EV estimate−32.9%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:00
- over 4.5odds7.60Closing chance estimate4.1%Closing EV estimate−68.7%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:00
LiderbetAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds1.70
Odds down−0.20
Model chance53.6%EV+1.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 16:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate86.5%Closing EV estimate−2.3%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:01
- over 1.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate58.0%Closing EV estimate−1.5%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:31
- over 2.5odds3.00Closing chance estimate29.8%Closing EV estimate−10.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:01
- over 3.5odds5.40Closing chance estimate12.2%Closing EV estimate−34.2%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:01
- over 4.5odds7.80Closing chance estimate4.1%Closing EV estimate−67.9%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 10:01
Bet365Closing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance58.0%EV+0.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 15:45
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate86.5%Closing EV estimate−1.1%margin5.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:45
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimate58.0%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:45
- over 2.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate29.8%Closing EV estimate+4.4%margin6.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:45
- over 3.5odds8.00Closing chance estimate12.2%Closing EV estimate−2.5%margin4.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:45
- over 4.5odds21.00Closing chance estimate4.1%Closing EV estimate−13.6%margin3.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:45
- over 5.5odds51.00Closing chance estimate1.2%Closing EV estimate−39.8%margin1.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:45
SuperbetClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance58.0%EV+1.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 16:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate86.5%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate58.0%Closing EV estimate+1.4%margin7.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
- over 2.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate29.8%Closing EV estimate−1.6%margin7.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
- over 3.5odds7.00Closing chance estimate12.2%Closing EV estimate−14.7%margin6.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
- over 4.5odds16.00Closing chance estimate4.1%Closing EV estimate−34.1%margin5.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 01:19: over 1.5 at 1.90 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Offsides · Athletico total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 1.5Actual: 0−1.00u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.6012 Oct, 05:37

Closing odds2.6012 Oct, 03:31

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 50.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.99
Expected value at recommendation: +30.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.99. Expected value at recommendation: +30.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation2.60
Closing odds2.60
Unchanged
Model chance50.3%EV+30.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 03:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate81.7%Closing EV estimate+8.7%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 03:31
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.60Closing chance estimate50.6%Closing EV estimate+31.7%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 03:31
- over 2.5odds5.25Closing chance estimate24.3%Closing EV estimate+27.3%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 03:31
BetliveClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV+26.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 04:00
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate81.7%Closing EV estimate+8.7%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 04:00
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.50Closing chance estimate50.6%Closing EV estimate+26.6%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 04:00
KambiClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.44
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV-27.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 16:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.44Closing chance estimate50.6%Closing EV estimate−27.1%margin—Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
- over 2.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate24.3%Closing EV estimate−46.6%margin—Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
LiderbetClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.55
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV+29.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 14:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.55Closing chance estimate50.6%Closing EV estimate+29.1%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 14:01
- over 2.5odds6.80Closing chance estimate24.3%Closing EV estimate+64.9%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 14:01

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 05:37: over 1.5 at 2.60 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots · Chapecoense total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 12.5Actual: 21+0.85u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8510 Oct, 01:22

Closing odds1.5712 Oct, 16:02

Odds down−0.28

Model chance at recommendation: 62.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.61
Expected value at recommendation: +15.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 62.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.61. Expected value at recommendation: +15.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 12.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds1.57
Odds down−0.28
Model chance62.4%EV+15.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 16:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 11.5odds1.63Closing chance estimate67.9%Closing EV estimate+10.6%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 04:03
- over 12.5odds1.57Closing chance estimate59.6%Closing EV estimate−6.4%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
- over 13.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate51.3%Closing EV estimate−7.7%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
- over 14.5odds2.08Closing chance estimate43.1%Closing EV estimate−10.3%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
SuperbetClosing estimateover 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.54
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.6%EV-8.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 15:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 10.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate75.6%Closing EV estimate−7.0%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:32
- over 11.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate67.9%Closing EV estimate−7.7%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:32
- over 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.54Closing chance estimate59.6%Closing EV estimate−8.1%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:32
- over 13.5odds1.77Closing chance estimate51.3%Closing EV estimate−9.2%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:32
- over 14.5odds2.07Closing chance estimate43.1%Closing EV estimate−10.8%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:32
- over 15.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate35.4%Closing EV estimate−11.6%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:32
- over 16.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate28.3%Closing EV estimate−13.7%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 15:32
- over 17.5odds3.55Closing chance estimate22.0%Closing EV estimate−21.8%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 13:32

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 01:22: over 12.5 at 1.85 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 9.5Actual: 15+1.05u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0510 Oct, 16:47

Closing odds1.8712 Oct, 16:02

Odds down−0.18

Model chance at recommendation: 53.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.89
Expected value at recommendation: +8.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.89. Expected value at recommendation: +8.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds1.87
Odds down−0.18
Model chance53.0%EV+8.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 16:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 5.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate94.2%Closing EV estimate−3.0%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
- over 6.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate88.5%Closing EV estimate−1.7%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
- over 7.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate80.2%Closing EV estimate+0.3%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
- over 8.5odds1.49Closing chance estimate69.6%Closing EV estimate+3.7%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
- over 9.5odds1.87Closing chance estimate57.5%Closing EV estimate+7.5%margin7.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
- over 10.5odds2.37Closing chance estimate45.1%Closing EV estimate+6.8%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
- over 11.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate33.4%Closing EV estimate+3.7%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
- over 12.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate23.5%Closing EV estimate−1.3%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
- over 13.5odds5.75Closing chance estimate15.6%Closing EV estimate−10.0%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
BetliveClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.5%EV+17.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 04:00
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 7.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate80.2%Closing EV estimate+8.3%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 04:00
- over 8.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate69.6%Closing EV estimate+11.4%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 04:00
- over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate57.5%Closing EV estimate+17.9%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 04:00
- over 10.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate45.1%Closing EV estimate+21.6%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 04:00
CrocobetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.5%EV+6.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 03:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 8.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate69.6%Closing EV estimate+7.9%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 03:31
- over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate57.5%Closing EV estimate+6.4%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 03:31
- over 10.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate45.1%Closing EV estimate+12.6%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 03:31
KambiClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.5%EV-0.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 16:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 6.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate88.5%Closing EV estimate−0.8%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 11:03
- over 7.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate80.2%Closing EV estimate−2.1%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
- over 8.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate69.6%Closing EV estimate−1.2%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
- over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimate57.5%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
- over 10.5odds2.18Closing chance estimate45.1%Closing EV estimate−1.8%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
- over 11.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate33.4%Closing EV estimate−4.7%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
- over 12.5odds3.80Closing chance estimate23.5%Closing EV estimate−10.7%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 16:02
LiderbetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.5%EV+17.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 14:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 7.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate80.2%Closing EV estimate+5.9%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 14:01
- over 8.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate69.6%Closing EV estimate+11.4%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 14:01
- over 9.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate57.5%Closing EV estimate+17.9%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 14:01
- over 10.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate45.1%Closing EV estimate+21.6%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 14:01
- over 11.5odds3.85Closing chance estimate33.4%Closing EV estimate+28.8%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 14:01

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 16:47: over 9.5 at 2.05 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return+28.0%ROI · 6 units staked

Profit+1.68units

W / L4 / 2picks

Avg odds2.04settled picks

Recorded picks61 matches

Around this match

CompetitionBrasileirão Série A Home teamChapecoense Away teamAthletico RefereeWilton Pereira Sampaio

Match overview

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