CD Toluca vs Atlético San Luis 1-1 — Liga MX, Apertura

Liga MX, AperturaLiga MX, Apertura 2026

CD Toluca

1–1

HT 0–0

Atlético San Luis

Sat 17 Oct·19:00·Matchday 12·Estadio Nemesio Diez·Drawn

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

15Corners2
0Cards0
29Shots15
7Shots on target5
9Fouls7
20Throw-ins15
2Offsides2
8Goal kicks16
4Saves6
9Tackles9
6Interceptions18
10Dribbles5

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

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We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

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0Free available0VIP available2Recorded Free1Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

19:00CD TolucavAtlético San LuisLiga MX, Apertura3 won / 0 lost · +3.28u · 3 picks

Corners · CD Toluca total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 6.5Actual: 15+1.18u on one unit

BetMGM UKrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1815 Oct, 18:18

Closing odds2.0216 Oct, 04:02

Odds down−0.16

Model chance at recommendation: 60.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.65
Expected value at recommendation: +32.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 60.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.65. Expected value at recommendation: +32.3%.

At recommendation, BetMGM UK’s overall market record had 92 settled picksand +3.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationover 6.5
At recommendation2.18
Closing odds2.02
Odds down−0.16
Model chance60.7%EV+32.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 04:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 6.5odds2.02Closing chance estimate61.9%Closing EV estimate+25.0%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 04:02
Bet365Closing estimateover 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.9%EV+23.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 14 Oct, 12:15
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate61.9%Closing EV estimate+23.7%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 14 Oct, 12:15
BetliveClosing estimateover 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.9%EV+14.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 18:23
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 4.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate86.1%Closing EV estimate+1.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 15:35
- over 5.5odds1.44Closing chance estimate75.2%Closing EV estimate+8.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 18:23
- over 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate61.9%Closing EV estimate+14.5%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 15:35
- over 7.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate47.8%Closing EV estimate+21.8%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 18:23
- over 8.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate34.5%Closing EV estimate+29.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 18:23
CrocobetClosing estimateover 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.9%EV+8.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 10:49
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 5.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate75.2%Closing EV estimate+1.5%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 10:49
- over 6.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate61.9%Closing EV estimate+8.3%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 10:49
- over 7.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate47.8%Closing EV estimate+12.2%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 10:49

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 18:18: over 6.5 at 2.18 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 16 Oct, 10:03. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 9.5Actual: 12+1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0015 Oct, 18:18

Closing odds1.7317 Oct, 16:01

Odds down−0.27

Model chance at recommendation: 70.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.42
Expected value at recommendation: +41.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 70.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.42. Expected value at recommendation: +41.7%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 88 settled picksand +27.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds1.73
Odds down−0.27
Model chance70.9%EV+41.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 16:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 9.5odds1.73Closing chance estimate72.0%Closing EV estimate+24.3%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 16:01

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 18:18: over 9.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 16:01. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · CD Toluca total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 6.5Actual: 7+1.10u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1015 Oct, 18:18

Closing odds1.8017 Oct, 16:31

Odds down−0.30

Model chance at recommendation: 66.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.51
Expected value at recommendation: +39.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 66.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.51. Expected value at recommendation: +39.3%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 52 settled picksand +6.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 6.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds1.80
Odds down−0.30
Model chance66.3%EV+39.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 16:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 6.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate68.2%Closing EV estimate+22.8%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 16:31

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 18:18: over 6.5 at 2.10 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 16:31. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return+109.3%ROI · 3 units staked

Profit+3.28units

W / L3 / 0picks

Avg odds2.09settled picks

Recorded picks31 matches

Around this match

CompetitionLiga MX, Apertura Home teamCD Toluca Away teamAtlético San Luis RefereeMarco Antonio Ortiz Nava

Match overview

Matches

Corners · CD Toluca total

Shots on target · match total

Shots on target · CD Toluca total

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