Bournemouth vs SK Sturm Graz 3-0 — UEFA Europa League

UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League 26/27

Bournemouth

3–0

HT 1–0

SK Sturm Graz

Thu 15 Oct·13:00·Matchday 2·Vitality Stadium·Bournemouth won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

7Corners3
3Cards3
23Shots6
7Shots on target1
11Fouls18
32Throw-ins18
1Offsides2
5Goal kicks11
1Saves3
13Tackles13
6Interceptions7
2Dribbles6

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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0Free available0VIP available8Recorded Free2Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

13:00BournemouthvSK Sturm GrazUEFA Europa League6 won / 4 lost · +1.60u · 10 picks

Cards · SK Sturm Graz total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 2.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8713 Oct, 15:46

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 70.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.42
Expected value at recommendation: +32.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 70.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.42. Expected value at recommendation: +32.2%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 108 settled picksand +7.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation1.87
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance70.7%EV+32.2%
BetliveClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance71.2%EV+35.3%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance71.2%EV+28.2%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.62
No saved recommendation
Model chance71.2%EV+15.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance71.2%EV+28.2%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 15:46: under 2.5 at 1.87 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 07:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 10.5Actual: 10−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0513 Oct, 10:15

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 56.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.78
Expected value at recommendation: +15.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.78. Expected value at recommendation: +15.8%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 98 settled picksand +4.6% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 10.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.5%EV+15.8%
BetliveClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.6%EV+20.9%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.6%EV+20.9%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.6%EV+18.0%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 10:15: over 10.5 at 2.05 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 11:12. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Bournemouth total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 7.5Actual: 7−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.3013 Oct, 10:15

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.84
Expected value at recommendation: +25.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 54.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.84. Expected value at recommendation: +25.3%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 104 settled picksand +0.9% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

KambiAt recommendationover 7.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.5%EV+14.4%
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 7.5
At recommendation2.30
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.5%EV+25.3%
Bet365Closing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.5%EV+20.8%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.5%EV+12.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.5%EV+12.2%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.5%EV+12.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 10:15: over 7.5 at 2.30 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 15:10. The original pick remains in the results.

Goal kicks · SK Sturm Graz total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 11.5Actual: 11+0.83u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8314 Oct, 13:18

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 66.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.52
Expected value at recommendation: +21.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 66.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.52. Expected value at recommendation: +21.1%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 77 settled picksand +12.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 11.5
At recommendation1.83
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance66.2%EV+21.1%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.42
No saved recommendation
Model chance63.9%EV-9.2%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.45
No saved recommendation
Model chance63.9%EV-7.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.40
No saved recommendation
Model chance63.9%EV-10.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 13:18: under 11.5 at 1.83 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goals · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 3.5Actual: 3+1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0015 Oct, 03:42

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 59.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.69
Expected value at recommendation: +18.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 59.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.69. Expected value at recommendation: +18.4%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 58 settled picksand +6.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance59.2%EV+18.4%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.02
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.0%EV+19.3%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.08
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.0%EV+22.8%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.0%EV+6.3%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.0%EV+6.3%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.0%EV+6.3%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.0%EV+12.7%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
PinnacleClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.03
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.0%EV+19.9%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 03:42: under 3.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Result corrected: Provider full-time score differs from the originally recorded goal result.

Offsides · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 1.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation4.4014 Oct, 09:15

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 2.00
Expected value at recommendation: +120.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 50.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +120.4%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 98 settled picksand +3.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation4.40
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.1%EV+120.4%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds4.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.8%EV+136.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 09:15: under 1.5 at 4.40 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 15:34. The original pick remains in the results.

Offsides · Bournemouth total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 1.5Actual: 1+0.95u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9514 Oct, 09:15

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 76.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.31
Expected value at recommendation: +48.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 76.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.31. Expected value at recommendation: +48.9%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 72 settled picksand +25.9% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance76.2%EV+56.2%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance76.2%EV+52.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 1.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance76.4%EV+48.9%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 09:15: under 1.5 at 1.95 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · Bournemouth total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 19.5Actual: 23+1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0014 Oct, 09:15

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.99
Expected value at recommendation: +0.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 50.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.99. Expected value at recommendation: +0.6%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 168 settled picksand +9.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveAt recommendationover 19.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.5%EV+3.6%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationover 19.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.5%EV+0.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 19.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.3%EV+0.6%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 19.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.8%EV-19.3%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 09:15: over 19.5 at 2.00 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · SK Sturm Graz total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 7.5Actual: 6+0.87u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8713 Oct, 12:10

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 58.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.72
Expected value at recommendation: +9.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 58.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.72. Expected value at recommendation: +9.0%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 35 settled picksand +0.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

KambiAt recommendationunder 7.5
At recommendation1.80
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance63.1%EV+13.7%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 7.5
At recommendation1.87
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance58.3%EV+9.0%
Bet365Closing estimateunder 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance64.5%EV+16.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.79
No saved recommendation
Model chance64.5%EV+15.4%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance64.5%EV+67.6%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds3.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance64.5%EV+99.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 12:10: under 7.5 at 1.87 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 12:24. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 10.5Actual: 8+0.95u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9513 Oct, 11:45

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 74.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.34
Expected value at recommendation: +45.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 74.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.34. Expected value at recommendation: +45.8%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 33 settled picksand +0.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 10.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance74.8%EV+45.8%
Bet365Closing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance74.3%EV+41.8%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance74.3%EV+22.5%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance74.3%EV+18.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.82
No saved recommendation
Model chance74.3%EV+35.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance74.3%EV+26.3%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 11:45: under 10.5 at 1.95 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 12:10. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return+16.0%ROI · 10 units staked

Profit+1.60units

W / L6 / 4picks

Avg odds2.22settled picks

Recorded picks101 matches

Around this match

CompetitionUEFA Europa League Home teamBournemouth Away teamSK Sturm Graz RefereeJérôme Brisard

Match overview

Matches

Cards · SK Sturm Graz total

Corners · match total

Corners · Bournemouth total

Goal kicks · SK Sturm Graz total

Goals · match total

Offsides · match total

Offsides · Bournemouth total

Shots · Bournemouth total

Shots · SK Sturm Graz total

Shots on target · match total

This match

Around this match

On this page

This category

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