Bournemouth vs SK Sturm Graz — UEFA Europa League

UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League 26/27

Thu 15 Oct··Matchday 2·Vitality Stadium·Bournemouth won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time
  • 7Corners3
  • 3Cards3
  • 23Shots6
  • 7Shots on target1
  • 11Fouls18
  • 32Throw-ins18
  • 1Offsides2
  • 5Goal kicks11
  • 1Saves3
  • 13Tackles13
  • 6Interceptions7
  • 2Dribbles6
0Free available0VIP available8Recorded Free2Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match
BournemouthvSK Sturm GrazUEFA Europa League6 won / 4 lost · +1.60u · 10 picks

Cards · SK Sturm Graz total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 2.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.87
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance at recommendation
70.7%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.42
Expected value at recommendation
+32.2%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 70.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.42. Expected value at recommendation: +32.2%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 108 settled picksand +7.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 2.5
    At recommendation1.87
    Closing odds—
    No closing quote captured
    Model chance70.7%EV+32.2%
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.90
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance71.2%EV+35.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 00:53

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate71.2%Closing EV estimate+35.3%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.34Closing chance estimate87.3%Closing EV estimate+17.0%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.80
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance71.2%EV+28.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 14 Oct, 05:19

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate45.9%Closing EV estimate+51.4%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate71.2%Closing EV estimate+28.2%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate87.3%Closing EV estimate+11.7%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiClosing estimateunder 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.62
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance71.2%EV+15.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:02

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate45.9%Closing EV estimate+21.6%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.62Closing chance estimate71.2%Closing EV estimate+15.4%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate87.3%Closing EV estimate+10.9%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 2.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.80
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance71.2%EV+28.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 00:53

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds3.20Closing chance estimate45.9%Closing EV estimate+46.8%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate71.2%Closing EV estimate+28.2%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate87.3%Closing EV estimate+9.1%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 15:46: under 2.5 at 1.87 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 07:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 10.5Actual: 10−1.00u on one unit
Kambirecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance at recommendation
56.5%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.78
Expected value at recommendation
+15.8%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.78. Expected value at recommendation: +15.8%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 98 settled picksand +4.6% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 10.5
    At recommendation2.05
    Closing odds—
    No closing quote captured
    Model chance56.5%EV+15.8%
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 10.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.10
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.6%EV+20.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:57

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 6.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate91.6%Closing EV estimate−1.0%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate85.6%Closing EV estimate+6.2%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate77.6%Closing EV estimate+10.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate68.1%Closing EV estimate+15.7%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate57.6%Closing EV estimate+20.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate46.9%Closing EV estimate+24.3%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds3.55Closing chance estimate36.8%Closing EV estimate+30.6%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds4.85Closing chance estimate27.8%Closing EV estimate+34.9%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds6.80Closing chance estimate20.3%Closing EV estimate+37.9%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 10.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.10
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.6%EV+20.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:47

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate95.7%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate91.6%Closing EV estimate+2.6%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate85.6%Closing EV estimate+5.3%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.41Closing chance estimate77.6%Closing EV estimate+9.4%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate68.1%Closing EV estimate+15.7%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate57.6%Closing EV estimate+20.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate46.9%Closing EV estimate+24.3%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate36.8%Closing EV estimate+28.8%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds5.25Closing chance estimate27.8%Closing EV estimate+46.1%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 10.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.05
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.6%EV+18.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:47

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 6.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate91.6%Closing EV estimate−2.9%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate85.6%Closing EV estimate+6.2%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate77.6%Closing EV estimate+6.3%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate68.1%Closing EV estimate+15.7%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate57.6%Closing EV estimate+18.0%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate46.9%Closing EV estimate+24.3%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds3.65Closing chance estimate36.8%Closing EV estimate+34.3%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds5.10Closing chance estimate27.8%Closing EV estimate+41.9%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 14.5odds7.30Closing chance estimate20.3%Closing EV estimate+48.0%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 10:15: over 10.5 at 2.05 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 11:12. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Bournemouth total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 7.5Actual: 7−1.00u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.30
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance at recommendation
54.5%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.84
Expected value at recommendation
+25.3%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 54.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.84. Expected value at recommendation: +25.3%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 104 settled picksand +0.9% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • KambiAt recommendationover 7.5
    At recommendation2.10
    Closing odds—
    No closing quote captured
    Model chance54.5%EV+14.4%
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 7.5
    At recommendation2.30
    Closing odds—
    No closing quote captured
    Model chance54.5%EV+25.3%
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 7.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.10
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.5%EV+20.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 06:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate57.5%Closing EV estimate+20.8%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 7.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.95
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.5%EV+12.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:57

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate79.2%Closing EV estimate+0.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate68.8%Closing EV estimate+6.7%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate57.5%Closing EV estimate+12.2%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate46.1%Closing EV estimate+17.6%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds3.65Closing chance estimate35.4%Closing EV estimate+29.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 7.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.95
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.5%EV+12.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 01:53

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 4.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate87.7%Closing EV estimate−1.8%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 5.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate79.2%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate68.8%Closing EV estimate+6.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate57.5%Closing EV estimate+12.2%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate46.1%Closing EV estimate+22.3%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate35.4%Closing EV estimate+24.1%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 7.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.95
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance57.5%EV+12.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:47

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 5.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate79.2%Closing EV estimate−1.0%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 6.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate68.8%Closing EV estimate+3.3%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate57.5%Closing EV estimate+12.2%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate46.1%Closing EV estimate+20.0%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds3.80Closing chance estimate35.4%Closing EV estimate+34.7%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 10:15: over 7.5 at 2.30 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 15:10. The original pick remains in the results.

Goal kicks · SK Sturm Graz total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 11.5Actual: 11+0.83u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.83
Closing odds1.83
Unchanged
Model chance at recommendation
66.2%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.52
Expected value at recommendation
+21.1%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 66.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.52. Expected value at recommendation: +21.1%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 77 settled picksand +12.4% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 11.5
    At recommendation1.83
    Closing odds1.83
    Unchanged
    Model chance66.2%EV+21.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 01:04

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 10.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate54.8%Closing EV estimate−9.5%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimate63.9%Closing EV estimate+17.0%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 11.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.42
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance63.9%EV-9.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 00:58

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 8.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate35.4%Closing EV estimate−2.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate45.2%Closing EV estimate−5.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate54.8%Closing EV estimate−6.8%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.42Closing chance estimate63.9%Closing EV estimate−9.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 11.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.45
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance63.9%EV-7.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 01:38

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 9.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate45.2%Closing EV estimate−5.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate54.8%Closing EV estimate−6.8%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimate63.9%Closing EV estimate−7.3%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 11.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.40
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance63.9%EV-10.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 11:17

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 9.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate45.2%Closing EV estimate−7.4%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate54.8%Closing EV estimate−6.8%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.40Closing chance estimate63.9%Closing EV estimate−10.5%margin13.1%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 13:18: under 11.5 at 1.83 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goals · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 3.5Actual: 3+1.00u on one unit
Bet365recorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds2.00
Unchanged
Model chance at recommendation
59.2%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.69
Expected value at recommendation
+18.4%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 59.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.69. Expected value at recommendation: +18.4%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 58 settled picksand +6.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
    At recommendation2.00
    Closing odds2.00
    Unchanged
    Model chance59.2%EV+18.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds23.00Closing chance estimate3.9%Closing EV estimate−11.2%margin3.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds7.00Closing chance estimate16.4%Closing EV estimate+15.0%margin5.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds3.40Closing chance estimate36.9%Closing EV estimate+25.3%margin4.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate59.0%Closing EV estimate+18.1%margin5.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.44Closing chance estimate77.1%Closing EV estimate+11.3%margin5.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate88.8%Closing EV estimate+6.6%margin5.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate95.2%Closing EV estimate+2.0%margin4.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate98.2%Closing EV estimate+0.6%margin3.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.02
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance59.0%EV+19.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.02Closing chance estimate59.0%Closing EV estimate+19.3%margin5.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateunder 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.08
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance59.0%EV+22.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds42.00Closing chance estimate3.9%Closing EV estimate+62.1%margin0.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds9.20Closing chance estimate16.4%Closing EV estimate+51.1%margin1.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate36.9%Closing EV estimate+36.4%margin0.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.08Closing chance estimate59.0%Closing EV estimate+22.8%margin0.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.47Closing chance estimate77.1%Closing EV estimate+13.3%margin0.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate88.8%Closing EV estimate+6.6%margin0.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate95.2%Closing EV estimate+2.8%margin0.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate98.2%Closing EV estimate+1.1%margin0.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate99.4%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin0.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.80
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance59.0%EV+6.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:43

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds9.40Closing chance estimate3.9%Closing EV estimate−63.7%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds5.60Closing chance estimate16.4%Closing EV estimate−8.0%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate36.9%Closing EV estimate+6.9%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate59.0%Closing EV estimate+6.3%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate77.1%Closing EV estimate+4.1%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate88.8%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.80
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance59.0%EV+6.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:47

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds9.40Closing chance estimate3.9%Closing EV estimate−63.7%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds5.50Closing chance estimate16.4%Closing EV estimate−9.7%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate36.9%Closing EV estimate+6.9%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate59.0%Closing EV estimate+6.3%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate77.1%Closing EV estimate+4.1%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate88.8%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.80
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance59.0%EV+6.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:43

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds9.40Closing chance estimate3.9%Closing EV estimate−63.7%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds5.50Closing chance estimate16.4%Closing EV estimate−9.7%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate36.9%Closing EV estimate+6.9%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate59.0%Closing EV estimate+6.3%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate77.1%Closing EV estimate+4.1%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate88.8%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 168.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 171.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 176.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 177.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 178.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.91
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance59.0%EV+12.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds19.00Closing chance estimate3.9%Closing EV estimate−26.7%margin5.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds7.50Closing chance estimate16.4%Closing EV estimate+23.2%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate36.9%Closing EV estimate+21.7%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate59.0%Closing EV estimate+12.7%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate77.1%Closing EV estimate+5.1%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate88.8%Closing EV estimate+1.5%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate95.2%Closing EV estimate−0.0%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • PinnacleClosing estimateunder 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.03
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance59.0%EV+19.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.03Closing chance estimate59.0%Closing EV estimate+19.9%margin4.2%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 03:42: under 3.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Result corrected: Provider full-time score differs from the originally recorded goal result.

Offsides · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 1.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit
Liderbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation4.40
Closing odds4.40
Unchanged
Model chance at recommendation
50.1%
Minimum qualifying odds
2.00
Expected value at recommendation
+120.4%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 50.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +120.4%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 98 settled picksand +3.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation4.40
    Closing odds4.40
    Unchanged
    Model chance50.1%EV+120.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 11:17

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds9.10Closing chance estimate19.2%Closing EV estimate+74.5%margin—Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds4.40Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate+119.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate75.0%Closing EV estimate+80.0%margin13.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate89.5%Closing EV estimate+47.7%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate96.2%Closing EV estimate+21.2%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate98.8%Closing EV estimate+6.7%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 1.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds4.75
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance49.8%EV+136.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 01:38

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds4.75Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate+136.7%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate75.0%Closing EV estimate+83.7%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate89.5%Closing EV estimate+43.2%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate96.2%Closing EV estimate+20.2%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate98.8%Closing EV estimate+6.7%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 09:15: under 1.5 at 4.40 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 15:34. The original pick remains in the results.

Offsides · Bournemouth total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 1.5Actual: 1+0.95u on one unit
Liderbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds2.05
Odds up+0.10
Model chance at recommendation
76.4%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.31
Expected value at recommendation
+48.9%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 76.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.31. Expected value at recommendation: +48.9%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 72 settled picksand +25.9% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetliveAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation2.05
    Closing odds2.05
    Unchanged
    Model chance76.2%EV+56.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 00:58

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate76.2%Closing EV estimate+56.2%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate92.8%Closing EV estimate+26.2%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation2.00
    Closing odds2.00
    Unchanged
    Model chance76.2%EV+52.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 01:38

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds4.75Closing chance estimate40.4%Closing EV estimate+91.9%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate76.2%Closing EV estimate+52.4%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate92.8%Closing EV estimate+20.7%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 1.5
    At recommendation1.95
    Closing odds2.05
    Odds up+0.10
    Model chance76.4%EV+48.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 11:17

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate76.2%Closing EV estimate+56.2%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds1.34Closing chance estimate92.8%Closing EV estimate+24.4%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate98.3%Closing EV estimate+5.1%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 09:15: under 1.5 at 1.95 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · Bournemouth total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 19.5Actual: 23+1.00u on one unit
Liderbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds1.90
Odds down−0.10
Model chance at recommendation
50.3%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.99
Expected value at recommendation
+0.6%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 50.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.99. Expected value at recommendation: +0.6%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 168 settled picksand +9.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • BetliveAt recommendationover 19.5
    At recommendation2.05
    Closing odds1.85
    Odds down−0.20
    Model chance50.5%EV+3.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 06:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 16.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate71.9%Closing EV estimate−2.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 17.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate66.0%Closing EV estimate−7.5%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 18.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate60.0%Closing EV estimate−7.0%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 19.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate53.8%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 20.5odds2.15Closing chance estimate47.6%Closing EV estimate+2.3%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 21.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate41.5%Closing EV estimate+5.9%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetAt recommendationover 19.5
    At recommendation1.95
    Closing odds1.95
    Unchanged
    Model chance51.5%EV+0.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 01:28

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 16.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate71.9%Closing EV estimate−4.4%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 17.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate66.0%Closing EV estimate−0.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 18.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate60.0%Closing EV estimate+2.0%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 19.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate53.8%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 20.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate47.6%Closing EV estimate+16.6%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 19.5
    At recommendation2.00
    Closing odds1.90
    Odds down−0.10
    Model chance50.3%EV+0.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 11:17

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 17.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate66.0%Closing EV estimate−4.2%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 18.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate60.0%Closing EV estimate−1.0%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 19.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate53.8%Closing EV estimate+2.2%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 19.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.50
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance53.8%EV-19.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:47

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 18.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate60.0%Closing EV estimate−18.4%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 19.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimate53.8%Closing EV estimate−19.3%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 23.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate30.2%Closing EV estimate−24.6%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24.5odds2.82Closing chance estimate25.1%Closing EV estimate−29.2%margin10.6%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 09:15: over 19.5 at 2.00 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · SK Sturm Graz total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 7.5Actual: 6+0.87u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.87
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance at recommendation
58.3%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.72
Expected value at recommendation
+9.0%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 58.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.72. Expected value at recommendation: +9.0%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 35 settled picksand +0.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • KambiAt recommendationunder 7.5
    At recommendation1.80
    Closing odds1.82
    Odds up+0.02
    Model chance63.1%EV+13.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:43

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 7.5odds1.82Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+17.3%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate74.2%Closing EV estimate+11.3%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 7.5
    At recommendation1.87
    Closing odds—
    No closing quote captured
    Model chance58.3%EV+9.0%
  • Bet365Closing estimateunder 7.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.80
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance64.5%EV+16.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 13:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+16.1%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 7.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.79
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance64.5%EV+15.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:40

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.79Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+15.4%margin13.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 7.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.60
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance64.5%EV+67.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 06:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.60Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+67.6%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate74.2%Closing EV estimate+48.4%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate82.2%Closing EV estimate+31.5%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate88.3%Closing EV estimate+19.2%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 7.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds3.10
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance64.5%EV+99.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 01:28

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds3.10Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+99.9%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate74.2%Closing EV estimate+63.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate82.2%Closing EV estimate+43.8%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate88.3%Closing EV estimate+28.1%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate92.7%Closing EV estimate+15.9%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 12:10: under 7.5 at 1.87 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 12:24. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 10.5Actual: 8+0.95u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance at recommendation
74.8%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.34
Expected value at recommendation
+45.8%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 74.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.34. Expected value at recommendation: +45.8%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 33 settled picksand +0.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 10.5
    At recommendation1.95
    Closing odds—
    No closing quote captured
    Model chance74.8%EV+45.8%
  • Bet365Closing estimateunder 10.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.91
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance74.3%EV+41.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 03:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate74.3%Closing EV estimate+41.8%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 10.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.65
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance74.3%EV+22.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 00:58

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 8.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate51.7%Closing EV estimate+34.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate63.7%Closing EV estimate+27.4%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimate74.3%Closing EV estimate+22.5%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate82.8%Closing EV estimate+14.2%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 10.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.60
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance74.3%EV+18.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 01:28

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 8.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate51.7%Closing EV estimate+42.1%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate63.7%Closing EV estimate+27.4%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimate74.3%Closing EV estimate+18.8%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate82.8%Closing EV estimate+15.9%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate89.1%Closing EV estimate+8.7%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiClosing estimateunder 10.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.82
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance74.3%EV+35.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:43

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 8.5odds3.15Closing chance estimate51.7%Closing EV estimate+62.8%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds2.33Closing chance estimate63.7%Closing EV estimate+48.4%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.82Closing chance estimate74.3%Closing EV estimate+35.2%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate82.8%Closing EV estimate+24.1%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate89.1%Closing EV estimate+15.8%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 10.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.70
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance74.3%EV+26.3%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 7.5odds3.65Closing chance estimate39.1%Closing EV estimate+42.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate51.7%Closing EV estimate+36.9%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate63.7%Closing EV estimate+33.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate74.3%Closing EV estimate+26.3%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate82.8%Closing EV estimate+15.9%margin13.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate89.1%Closing EV estimate+10.4%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate93.4%Closing EV estimate+4.6%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 11:45: under 10.5 at 1.95 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 12:10. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results
Return+16.0%ROI · 10 units staked
Profit+1.60units
W / L6 / 4picks
Avg odds2.22settled picks
Recorded picks101 matches

Around this match

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