Bournemouth vs SK Sturm Graz — UEFA Europa League
UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League 26/27
Thu 15 Oct··Matchday 2·Vitality Stadium·Bournemouth won
Match overview
12 priority stats · full time- 7Corners3
- 3Cards3
- 23Shots6
- 7Shots on target1
- 11Fouls18
- 32Throw-ins18
- 1Offsides2
- 5Goal kicks11
- 1Saves3
- 13Tackles13
- 6Interceptions7
- 2Dribbles6
Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.
Board
Matches
BournemouthvSK Sturm GrazUEFA Europa League6 won / 4 lost · +1.60u · 10 picks
This recorded pick has a result.
- Model chance at recommendation
- 70.7%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.42
- Expected value at recommendation
- +32.2%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 70.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.42. Expected value at recommendation: +32.2%.
At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 108 settled picksand +7.5% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
- Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 2.5Model chance70.7%EV+32.2%No closing quote capturedAt recommendation1.87Closing odds—
BetliveClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance71.2%EV+35.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.90Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 00:53Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate71.2%Closing EV estimate+35.3%margin11.5%
- under 3.5odds1.34Closing chance estimate87.3%Closing EV estimate+17.0%margin11.7%
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance71.2%EV+28.2%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.80Last captured before kickoffas of 14 Oct, 05:19Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 1.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate45.9%Closing EV estimate+51.4%margin12.3%
- under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate71.2%Closing EV estimate+28.2%margin11.1%
- under 3.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate87.3%Closing EV estimate+11.7%margin12.0%
KambiClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance71.2%EV+15.4%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.62Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:02Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 1.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate45.9%Closing EV estimate+21.6%margin9.2%
- under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.62Closing chance estimate71.2%Closing EV estimate+15.4%margin8.9%
- under 3.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate87.3%Closing EV estimate+10.9%margin9.5%
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 2.5
Model chance71.2%EV+28.2%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.80Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 00:53Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 1.5odds3.20Closing chance estimate45.9%Closing EV estimate+46.8%margin11.3%
- under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate71.2%Closing EV estimate+28.2%margin11.1%
- under 3.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate87.3%Closing EV estimate+9.1%margin11.3%
Recommendation record
Recorded 13 Oct, 15:46: under 2.5 at 1.87 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 07:06. The original pick remains in the results.
This recorded pick has a result.
- Model chance at recommendation
- 56.5%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.78
- Expected value at recommendation
- +15.8%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 56.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.78. Expected value at recommendation: +15.8%.
At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 98 settled picksand +4.6% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
- Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 10.5Model chance56.5%EV+15.8%No closing quote capturedAt recommendation2.05Closing odds—
BetliveClosing estimateover 10.5
Model chance57.6%EV+20.9%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.10Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:57Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 6.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate91.6%Closing EV estimate−1.0%margin11.8%
- over 7.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate85.6%Closing EV estimate+6.2%margin11.9%
- over 8.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate77.6%Closing EV estimate+10.2%margin12.1%
- over 9.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate68.1%Closing EV estimate+15.7%margin11.5%
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate57.6%Closing EV estimate+20.9%margin12.1%
- over 11.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate46.9%Closing EV estimate+24.3%margin11.8%
- over 12.5odds3.55Closing chance estimate36.8%Closing EV estimate+30.6%margin12.2%
- over 13.5odds4.85Closing chance estimate27.8%Closing EV estimate+34.9%margin11.5%
- over 14.5odds6.80Closing chance estimate20.3%Closing EV estimate+37.9%margin11.8%
CrocobetClosing estimateover 10.5
Model chance57.6%EV+20.9%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.10Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:47Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 5.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate95.7%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin11.5%
- over 6.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate91.6%Closing EV estimate+2.6%margin11.5%
- over 7.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate85.6%Closing EV estimate+5.3%margin12.1%
- over 8.5odds1.41Closing chance estimate77.6%Closing EV estimate+9.4%margin12.6%
- over 9.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate68.1%Closing EV estimate+15.7%margin11.5%
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate57.6%Closing EV estimate+20.9%margin12.1%
- over 11.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate46.9%Closing EV estimate+24.3%margin11.8%
- over 12.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate36.8%Closing EV estimate+28.8%margin11.9%
- over 13.5odds5.25Closing chance estimate27.8%Closing EV estimate+46.1%margin11.6%
LiderbetClosing estimateover 10.5
Model chance57.6%EV+18.0%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.05Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:47Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 6.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate91.6%Closing EV estimate−2.9%margin12.2%
- over 7.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate85.6%Closing EV estimate+6.2%margin11.9%
- over 8.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate77.6%Closing EV estimate+6.3%margin12.2%
- over 9.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate68.1%Closing EV estimate+15.7%margin11.5%
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate57.6%Closing EV estimate+18.0%margin13.3%
- over 11.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate46.9%Closing EV estimate+24.3%margin11.8%
- over 12.5odds3.65Closing chance estimate36.8%Closing EV estimate+34.3%margin12.1%
- over 13.5odds5.10Closing chance estimate27.8%Closing EV estimate+41.9%margin12.2%
- over 14.5odds7.30Closing chance estimate20.3%Closing EV estimate+48.0%margin12.7%
Recommendation record
Recorded 13 Oct, 10:15: over 10.5 at 2.05 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 11:12. The original pick remains in the results.
This recorded pick has a result.
- Model chance at recommendation
- 54.5%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.84
- Expected value at recommendation
- +25.3%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 54.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.84. Expected value at recommendation: +25.3%.
At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 104 settled picksand +0.9% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
- KambiAt recommendationover 7.5Model chance54.5%EV+14.4%No closing quote capturedAt recommendation2.10Closing odds—
- Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 7.5Model chance54.5%EV+25.3%No closing quote capturedAt recommendation2.30Closing odds—
Bet365Closing estimateover 7.5
Model chance57.5%EV+20.8%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.10Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 06:40Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate57.5%Closing EV estimate+20.8%margin7.6%
BetliveClosing estimateover 7.5
Model chance57.5%EV+12.2%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.95Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:57Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 5.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate79.2%Closing EV estimate+0.5%margin12.1%
- over 6.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate68.8%Closing EV estimate+6.7%margin11.0%
- over 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate57.5%Closing EV estimate+12.2%margin11.9%
- over 8.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate46.1%Closing EV estimate+17.6%margin12.2%
- over 9.5odds3.65Closing chance estimate35.4%Closing EV estimate+29.4%margin12.1%
CrocobetClosing estimateover 7.5
Model chance57.5%EV+12.2%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.95Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 01:53Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 4.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate87.7%Closing EV estimate−1.8%margin11.5%
- over 5.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate79.2%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin12.0%
- over 6.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate68.8%Closing EV estimate+6.7%margin12.1%
- over 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate57.5%Closing EV estimate+12.2%margin11.9%
- over 8.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate46.1%Closing EV estimate+22.3%margin11.8%
- over 9.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate35.4%Closing EV estimate+24.1%margin11.9%
LiderbetClosing estimateover 7.5
Model chance57.5%EV+12.2%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.95Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:47Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 5.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate79.2%Closing EV estimate−1.0%margin12.3%
- over 6.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate68.8%Closing EV estimate+3.3%margin13.2%
- over 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate57.5%Closing EV estimate+12.2%margin11.9%
- over 8.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate46.1%Closing EV estimate+20.0%margin12.5%
- over 9.5odds3.80Closing chance estimate35.4%Closing EV estimate+34.7%margin12.5%
Recommendation record
Recorded 13 Oct, 10:15: over 7.5 at 2.30 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 15:10. The original pick remains in the results.
This recorded pick has a result.
- Model chance at recommendation
- 66.2%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.52
- Expected value at recommendation
- +21.1%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 66.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.52. Expected value at recommendation: +21.1%.
At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 77 settled picksand +12.4% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 11.5
Model chance66.2%EV+21.1%UnchangedAt recommendation1.83Closing odds1.83Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 01:04Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 10.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate54.8%Closing EV estimate−9.5%margin8.9%
- under 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimate63.9%Closing EV estimate+17.0%margin8.1%
BetliveClosing estimateunder 11.5
Model chance63.9%EV-9.2%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.42Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 00:58Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 8.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate35.4%Closing EV estimate−2.7%margin12.1%
- under 9.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate45.2%Closing EV estimate−5.2%margin12.1%
- under 10.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate54.8%Closing EV estimate−6.8%margin11.5%
- under 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.42Closing chance estimate63.9%Closing EV estimate−9.2%margin12.1%
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 11.5
Model chance63.9%EV-7.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.45Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 01:38Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 9.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate45.2%Closing EV estimate−5.2%margin12.1%
- under 10.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate54.8%Closing EV estimate−6.8%margin11.5%
- under 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimate63.9%Closing EV estimate−7.3%margin12.4%
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 11.5
Model chance63.9%EV-10.5%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.40Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 11:17Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 9.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate45.2%Closing EV estimate−7.4%margin13.3%
- under 10.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate54.8%Closing EV estimate−6.8%margin11.5%
- under 11.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.40Closing chance estimate63.9%Closing EV estimate−10.5%margin13.1%
Recommendation record
Recorded 14 Oct, 13:18: under 11.5 at 1.83 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
This recorded pick has a result.
- Model chance at recommendation
- 59.2%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.69
- Expected value at recommendation
- +18.4%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 59.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.69. Expected value at recommendation: +18.4%.
At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 58 settled picksand +6.5% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
Model chance59.2%EV+18.4%UnchangedAt recommendation2.00Closing odds2.00Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:40Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 0.5odds23.00Closing chance estimate3.9%Closing EV estimate−11.2%margin3.2%
- under 1.5odds7.00Closing chance estimate16.4%Closing EV estimate+15.0%margin5.2%
- under 2.5odds3.40Closing chance estimate36.9%Closing EV estimate+25.3%margin4.4%
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate59.0%Closing EV estimate+18.1%margin5.6%
- under 4.5odds1.44Closing chance estimate77.1%Closing EV estimate+11.3%margin5.6%
- under 5.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate88.8%Closing EV estimate+6.6%margin5.6%
- under 6.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate95.2%Closing EV estimate+2.0%margin4.5%
- under 7.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate98.2%Closing EV estimate+0.6%margin3.4%
BetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance59.0%EV+19.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.02Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:40Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.02Closing chance estimate59.0%Closing EV estimate+19.3%margin5.7%
Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance59.0%EV+22.8%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.08Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:40Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 0.5odds42.00Closing chance estimate3.9%Closing EV estimate+62.1%margin0.4%
- under 1.5odds9.20Closing chance estimate16.4%Closing EV estimate+51.1%margin1.0%
- under 2.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate36.9%Closing EV estimate+36.4%margin0.6%
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.08Closing chance estimate59.0%Closing EV estimate+22.8%margin0.7%
- under 4.5odds1.47Closing chance estimate77.1%Closing EV estimate+13.3%margin0.8%
- under 5.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate88.8%Closing EV estimate+6.6%margin0.9%
- under 6.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate95.2%Closing EV estimate+2.8%margin0.9%
- under 7.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate98.2%Closing EV estimate+1.1%margin0.9%
- under 8.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate99.4%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin0.7%
BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance59.0%EV+6.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.80Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:43Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 0.5odds9.40Closing chance estimate3.9%Closing EV estimate−63.7%margin9.6%
- under 1.5odds5.60Closing chance estimate16.4%Closing EV estimate−8.0%margin9.6%
- under 2.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate36.9%Closing EV estimate+6.9%margin10.2%
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate59.0%Closing EV estimate+6.3%margin9.6%
- under 4.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate77.1%Closing EV estimate+4.1%margin9.8%
- under 5.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate88.8%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin9.9%
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance59.0%EV+6.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.80Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:47Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 0.5odds9.40Closing chance estimate3.9%Closing EV estimate−63.7%margin9.6%
- under 1.5odds5.50Closing chance estimate16.4%Closing EV estimate−9.7%margin9.9%
- under 2.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate36.9%Closing EV estimate+6.9%margin10.2%
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate59.0%Closing EV estimate+6.3%margin9.6%
- under 4.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate77.1%Closing EV estimate+4.1%margin9.8%
- under 5.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate88.8%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin9.9%
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance59.0%EV+6.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.80Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:43Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 0.5odds9.40Closing chance estimate3.9%Closing EV estimate−63.7%margin9.6%
- under 1.5odds5.50Closing chance estimate16.4%Closing EV estimate−9.7%margin9.9%
- under 2.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate36.9%Closing EV estimate+6.9%margin10.2%
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate59.0%Closing EV estimate+6.3%margin9.6%
- under 4.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate77.1%Closing EV estimate+4.1%margin9.8%
- under 5.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate88.8%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin9.7%
- under 168.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- under 171.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- under 176.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- under 177.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
- under 178.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance59.0%EV+12.7%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.91Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:00Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 0.5odds19.00Closing chance estimate3.9%Closing EV estimate−26.7%margin5.1%
- under 1.5odds7.50Closing chance estimate16.4%Closing EV estimate+23.2%margin8.6%
- under 2.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate36.9%Closing EV estimate+21.7%margin8.1%
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate59.0%Closing EV estimate+12.7%margin7.9%
- under 4.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate77.1%Closing EV estimate+5.1%margin8.1%
- under 5.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate88.8%Closing EV estimate+1.5%margin8.3%
- under 6.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate95.2%Closing EV estimate−0.0%margin7.7%
PinnacleClosing estimateunder 3.5
Model chance59.0%EV+19.9%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.03Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:40Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.03Closing chance estimate59.0%Closing EV estimate+19.9%margin4.2%
Recommendation record
Recorded 15 Oct, 03:42: under 3.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Result corrected: Provider full-time score differs from the originally recorded goal result.
This recorded pick has a result.
- Model chance at recommendation
- 50.1%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 2.00
- Expected value at recommendation
- +120.4%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 50.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +120.4%.
At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 98 settled picksand +3.2% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 1.5
Model chance50.1%EV+120.4%UnchangedAt recommendation4.40Closing odds4.40Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 11:17Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 0.5odds9.10Closing chance estimate19.2%Closing EV estimate+74.5%margin—
- under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds4.40Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate+119.3%margin12.0%
- under 2.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate75.0%Closing EV estimate+80.0%margin13.1%
- under 3.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate89.5%Closing EV estimate+47.7%margin11.9%
- under 4.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate96.2%Closing EV estimate+21.2%margin12.2%
- under 5.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate98.8%Closing EV estimate+6.7%margin12.2%
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 1.5
Model chance49.8%EV+136.7%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds4.75Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 01:38Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds4.75Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate+136.7%margin12.0%
- under 2.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate75.0%Closing EV estimate+83.7%margin12.2%
- under 3.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate89.5%Closing EV estimate+43.2%margin12.5%
- under 4.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate96.2%Closing EV estimate+20.2%margin12.3%
- under 5.5odds1.08Closing chance estimate98.8%Closing EV estimate+6.7%margin11.6%
Recommendation record
Recorded 14 Oct, 09:15: under 1.5 at 4.40 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 15:34. The original pick remains in the results.
This recorded pick has a result.
- Model chance at recommendation
- 76.4%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.31
- Expected value at recommendation
- +48.9%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 76.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.31. Expected value at recommendation: +48.9%.
At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 72 settled picksand +25.9% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
BetliveAt recommendationunder 1.5
Model chance76.2%EV+56.2%UnchangedAt recommendation2.05Closing odds2.05Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 00:58Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate76.2%Closing EV estimate+56.2%margin13.3%
- under 2.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate92.8%Closing EV estimate+26.2%margin12.0%
CrocobetAt recommendationunder 1.5
Model chance76.2%EV+52.4%UnchangedAt recommendation2.00Closing odds2.00Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 01:38Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 0.5odds4.75Closing chance estimate40.4%Closing EV estimate+91.9%margin12.0%
- under 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate76.2%Closing EV estimate+52.4%margin12.5%
- under 2.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate92.8%Closing EV estimate+20.7%margin12.0%
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 1.5
Model chance76.4%EV+48.9%Odds up+0.10At recommendation1.95Closing odds2.05Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 11:17Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 1.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate76.2%Closing EV estimate+56.2%margin11.3%
- under 2.5odds1.34Closing chance estimate92.8%Closing EV estimate+24.4%margin12.4%
- under 3.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate98.3%Closing EV estimate+5.1%margin12.5%
Recommendation record
Recorded 14 Oct, 09:15: under 1.5 at 1.95 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
This recorded pick has a result.
- Model chance at recommendation
- 50.3%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.99
- Expected value at recommendation
- +0.6%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 50.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.99. Expected value at recommendation: +0.6%.
At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 168 settled picksand +9.1% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
BetliveAt recommendationover 19.5
Model chance50.5%EV+3.6%Odds down−0.20At recommendation2.05Closing odds1.85Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 06:03Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 16.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate71.9%Closing EV estimate−2.3%margin12.0%
- over 17.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate66.0%Closing EV estimate−7.5%margin12.2%
- over 18.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate60.0%Closing EV estimate−7.0%margin13.3%
- over 19.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate53.8%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin11.2%
- over 20.5odds2.15Closing chance estimate47.6%Closing EV estimate+2.3%margin13.2%
- over 21.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate41.5%Closing EV estimate+5.9%margin12.2%
CrocobetAt recommendationover 19.5
Model chance51.5%EV+0.3%UnchangedAt recommendation1.95Closing odds1.95Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 01:28Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 16.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate71.9%Closing EV estimate−4.4%margin11.6%
- over 17.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate66.0%Closing EV estimate−0.9%margin12.1%
- over 18.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate60.0%Closing EV estimate+2.0%margin11.5%
- over 19.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate53.8%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin11.9%
- over 20.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate47.6%Closing EV estimate+16.6%margin12.2%
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 19.5
Model chance50.3%EV+0.6%Odds down−0.10At recommendation2.00Closing odds1.90Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 11:17Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 17.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate66.0%Closing EV estimate−4.2%margin12.4%
- over 18.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate60.0%Closing EV estimate−1.0%margin11.9%
- over 19.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate53.8%Closing EV estimate+2.2%margin13.2%
SuperbetClosing estimateover 19.5
Model chance53.8%EV-19.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.50Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:47Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- over 18.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate60.0%Closing EV estimate−18.4%margin8.0%
- over 19.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimate53.8%Closing EV estimate−19.3%margin8.0%
- over 23.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate30.2%Closing EV estimate−24.6%margin8.0%
- over 24.5odds2.82Closing chance estimate25.1%Closing EV estimate−29.2%margin10.6%
Recommendation record
Recorded 14 Oct, 09:15: over 19.5 at 2.00 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
This recorded pick has a result.
- Model chance at recommendation
- 58.3%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.72
- Expected value at recommendation
- +9.0%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 58.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.72. Expected value at recommendation: +9.0%.
At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 35 settled picksand +0.1% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
KambiAt recommendationunder 7.5
Model chance63.1%EV+13.7%Odds up+0.02At recommendation1.80Closing odds1.82Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:43Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 7.5odds1.82Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+17.3%margin11.4%
- under 8.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate74.2%Closing EV estimate+11.3%margin12.1%
- Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 7.5Model chance58.3%EV+9.0%No closing quote capturedAt recommendation1.87Closing odds—
Bet365Closing estimateunder 7.5
Model chance64.5%EV+16.1%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.80Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 13:03Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+16.1%margin7.9%
BetMGM UKClosing estimateunder 7.5
Model chance64.5%EV+15.4%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.79Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:40Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.79Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+15.4%margin13.0%
BetliveClosing estimateunder 7.5
Model chance64.5%EV+67.6%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds2.60Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 06:03Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.60Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+67.6%margin12.0%
- under 8.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate74.2%Closing EV estimate+48.4%margin12.5%
- under 9.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate82.2%Closing EV estimate+31.5%margin12.5%
- under 10.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate88.3%Closing EV estimate+19.2%margin11.8%
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 7.5
Model chance64.5%EV+99.9%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds3.10Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 01:28Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 7.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds3.10Closing chance estimate64.5%Closing EV estimate+99.9%margin12.3%
- under 8.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate74.2%Closing EV estimate+63.2%margin12.1%
- under 9.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate82.2%Closing EV estimate+43.8%margin11.2%
- under 10.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate88.3%Closing EV estimate+28.1%margin12.4%
- under 11.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate92.7%Closing EV estimate+15.9%margin12.3%
Recommendation record
Recorded 13 Oct, 12:10: under 7.5 at 1.87 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 12:24. The original pick remains in the results.
This recorded pick has a result.
- Model chance at recommendation
- 74.8%
- Minimum qualifying odds
- 1.34
- Expected value at recommendation
- +45.8%
Bookmaker prices and pick details
Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.
Model chance at recommendation 74.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.34. Expected value at recommendation: +45.8%.
At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 33 settled picksand +0.7% return. View current benchmark
Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.
- Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 10.5Model chance74.8%EV+45.8%No closing quote capturedAt recommendation1.95Closing odds—
Bet365Closing estimateunder 10.5
Model chance74.3%EV+41.8%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.91Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 03:00Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate74.3%Closing EV estimate+41.8%margin7.9%
BetliveClosing estimateunder 10.5
Model chance74.3%EV+22.5%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.65Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 00:58Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 8.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate51.7%Closing EV estimate+34.3%margin12.0%
- under 9.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate63.7%Closing EV estimate+27.4%margin12.5%
- under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimate74.3%Closing EV estimate+22.5%margin11.9%
- under 11.5odds1.38Closing chance estimate82.8%Closing EV estimate+14.2%margin11.7%
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 10.5
Model chance74.3%EV+18.8%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.60Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 01:28Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 8.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate51.7%Closing EV estimate+42.1%margin11.6%
- under 9.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate63.7%Closing EV estimate+27.4%margin12.5%
- under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimate74.3%Closing EV estimate+18.8%margin12.5%
- under 11.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate82.8%Closing EV estimate+15.9%margin12.2%
- under 12.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate89.1%Closing EV estimate+8.7%margin12.3%
KambiClosing estimateunder 10.5
Model chance74.3%EV+35.2%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.82Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:43Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 8.5odds3.15Closing chance estimate51.7%Closing EV estimate+62.8%margin11.1%
- under 9.5odds2.33Closing chance estimate63.7%Closing EV estimate+48.4%margin10.9%
- under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.82Closing chance estimate74.3%Closing EV estimate+35.2%margin11.1%
- under 11.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate82.8%Closing EV estimate+24.1%margin11.1%
- under 12.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate89.1%Closing EV estimate+15.8%margin11.4%
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 10.5
Model chance74.3%EV+26.3%No saved recommendationAt recommendation—Closing odds1.70Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:37Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
- under 7.5odds3.65Closing chance estimate39.1%Closing EV estimate+42.7%margin12.1%
- under 8.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate51.7%Closing EV estimate+36.9%margin12.4%
- under 9.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate63.7%Closing EV estimate+33.8%margin12.1%
- under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate74.3%Closing EV estimate+26.3%margin11.5%
- under 11.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate82.8%Closing EV estimate+15.9%margin13.1%
- under 12.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate89.1%Closing EV estimate+10.4%margin12.4%
- under 13.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate93.4%Closing EV estimate+4.6%margin12.3%
Recommendation record
Recorded 13 Oct, 11:45: under 10.5 at 1.95 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.
Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 12:10. The original pick remains in the results.
Predictions