Botafogo vs Chapecoense 1-0 — Brasileirão Série A

Brasileirão Série ABrasileiro Serie A 2026

Botafogo

1–0

HT 1–0

Chapecoense

Sat 17 Oct·15:00·Matchday 31·Estádio Nilton Santos·Botafogo won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

4Corners4
0Cards1
20Shots9
11Shots on target0
9Fouls12
22Throw-ins18
2Offsides1
7Goal kicks6
0Saves10
14Tackles16
12Interceptions8
7Dribbles12

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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0Free available0VIP available1Recorded Free3Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

15:00BotafogovChapecoenseBrasileirão Série A2 won / 2 lost · −0.20u · 4 picks

Corners · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 10.5Actual: 8−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0013 Oct, 00:06

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 53.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.88
Expected value at recommendation: +6.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.88. Expected value at recommendation: +6.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 10.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.4%EV+6.8%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.2%EV+3.9%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.2%EV+3.9%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.2%EV+15.1%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.2%EV+3.9%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.2%EV+20.7%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.2%EV+9.5%
16 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 00:06: over 10.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 06:18. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 30.5Actual: 29−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9117 Oct, 04:39

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 53.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.87
Expected value at recommendation: +2.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 53.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.87. Expected value at recommendation: +2.4%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 87 settled picksand +11.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 30.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.7%EV+2.4%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 30.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.55
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.6%EV-16.9%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 30.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.6%EV-3.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 30.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.45
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.6%EV-22.2%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 04:39: over 30.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 08:33. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Botafogo total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 19.5Actual: 20+0.80u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8017 Oct, 06:11

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 59.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.67
Expected value at recommendation: +7.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 59.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.67. Expected value at recommendation: +7.8%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 187 settled picksand +10.8% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 19.5
At recommendation1.80
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance59.9%EV+7.8%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 19.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.0%EV+8.2%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 19.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.61
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.0%EV-5.0%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 06:11: over 19.5 at 1.80 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 10.5Actual: 11+1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0015 Oct, 06:18

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.95
Expected value at recommendation: +2.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 51.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.95. Expected value at recommendation: +2.8%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 88 settled picksand +27.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 10.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.4%EV+2.8%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationover 10.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance60.7%EV+12.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationover 10.5
At recommendation2.17
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance60.7%EV+31.8%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.76
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.8%EV+6.9%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.8%EV+9.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 06:18: over 10.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 09:05. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−5.0%ROI · 4 units staked

Profit−0.20units

W / L2 / 2picks

Avg odds1.93settled picks

Recorded picks41 matches

Around this match

CompetitionBrasileirão Série A Home teamBotafogo Away teamChapecoense RefereeRaphael Claus

Previous meetings

Sat 18 AprChapecoense 1-4 Botafogo

Match overview

Matches

Corners · match total

Shots · match total

Shots · Botafogo total

Shots on target · match total

This match

Around this match

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