Botafogo vs Chapecoense 1-0 — Brasileirão Série A

Brasileirão Série ABrasileiro Serie A 2026

Botafogo

1–0

HT 1–0

Chapecoense

Sat 17 Oct·15:00·Matchday 31·Estádio Nilton Santos·Botafogo won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

4Corners4
0Cards · Result conflict1
20Shots9
11Shots on target0
9Fouls12
22Throw-ins18
2Offsides1
7Goal kicks6
0Saves10
14Tackles16
12Interceptions8
7Dribbles12

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

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Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

15:00BotafogovChapecoenseBrasileirão Série A2 won / 2 lost · −0.20u · 4 picks

Corners · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 10.5Actual: 8−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0013 Oct, 00:06

Closing odds1.9117 Oct, 10:03

Odds down−0.09

Model chance at recommendation: 53.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.88
Expected value at recommendation: +6.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.88. Expected value at recommendation: +6.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 10.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds1.91
Odds down−0.09
Model chance53.4%EV+6.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 10:03
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 10.5odds1.91Closing chance estimate56.2%Closing EV estimate+7.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 10:03
BetliveClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.2%EV+3.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 10:25
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 6.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate91.4%Closing EV estimate−4.9%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 10:25
- over 7.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate85.1%Closing EV estimate−3.0%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 10:25
- over 8.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate76.8%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:11
- over 9.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate66.9%Closing EV estimate+3.7%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 06:16
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate56.2%Closing EV estimate+3.9%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:11
- over 11.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate45.4%Closing EV estimate+4.4%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:11
- over 12.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate35.3%Closing EV estimate+2.4%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:11
- over 13.5odds4.50Closing chance estimate26.5%Closing EV estimate+19.1%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 10:25
- over 14.5odds6.40Closing chance estimate19.1%Closing EV estimate+22.2%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 10:25
CrocobetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.2%EV+3.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 08:12
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 7.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate85.1%Closing EV estimate−2.1%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 10:29
- over 8.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate76.8%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin13.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:12
- over 9.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate66.9%Closing EV estimate+3.7%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 18:17
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate56.2%Closing EV estimate+3.9%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:12
- over 11.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate45.4%Closing EV estimate+4.4%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:12
- over 12.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate35.3%Closing EV estimate+2.4%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:12
KambiClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.2%EV+15.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 14:25
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 7.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate85.1%Closing EV estimate+3.8%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 22:40
- over 8.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate76.8%Closing EV estimate+7.5%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 22:40
- over 9.5odds1.66Closing chance estimate66.9%Closing EV estimate+11.0%margin8.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:25
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate56.2%Closing EV estimate+15.1%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:25
- over 11.5odds2.63Closing chance estimate45.4%Closing EV estimate+19.4%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:25
- over 12.5odds3.40Closing chance estimate35.3%Closing EV estimate+20.1%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:01
- over 13.5odds4.50Closing chance estimate26.5%Closing EV estimate+19.1%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:01
- over 14.5odds6.00Closing chance estimate19.1%Closing EV estimate+14.5%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 22:35
LiderbetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.2%EV+3.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 08:12
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 8.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate76.8%Closing EV estimate+1.3%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:12
- over 9.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate66.9%Closing EV estimate+3.7%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 18:18
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate56.2%Closing EV estimate+3.9%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:12
- over 11.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate45.4%Closing EV estimate+4.4%margin14.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:12
- over 12.5odds2.90Closing chance estimate35.3%Closing EV estimate+2.4%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:12
Paddy PowerClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.2%EV+20.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 13:30
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 9.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate66.9%Closing EV estimate+13.7%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 13:30
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimate56.2%Closing EV estimate+20.7%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 13:30
- over 11.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate45.4%Closing EV estimate+27.1%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 13:30
- over 12.5odds3.90Closing chance estimate35.3%Closing EV estimate+37.8%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 13:30
SuperbetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.2%EV+9.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 08:12
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5odds1.00Closing chance estimate99.3%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin4.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 15:43
- over 4.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate98.1%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin5.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 15:43
- over 5.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate95.7%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:12
- over 6.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate91.4%Closing EV estimate+2.4%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:12
- over 7.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate85.1%Closing EV estimate+4.7%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:12
- over 8.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate76.8%Closing EV estimate+7.5%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:12
- over 9.5odds1.63Closing chance estimate66.9%Closing EV estimate+9.0%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:12
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate56.2%Closing EV estimate+9.5%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:12
- over 11.5odds2.42Closing chance estimate45.4%Closing EV estimate+9.9%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:12
- over 12.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate35.3%Closing EV estimate+7.7%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:12
- over 13.5odds3.90Closing chance estimate26.5%Closing EV estimate+3.2%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:12
- over 14.5odds5.15Closing chance estimate19.1%Closing EV estimate−1.7%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:12
- over 15.5odds6.80Closing chance estimate13.3%Closing EV estimate−9.8%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:12
- over 16.5odds8.90Closing chance estimate8.9%Closing EV estimate−20.9%margin7.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:12
- over 17.5odds12.00Closing chance estimate5.7%Closing EV estimate−31.1%margin6.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:12
- over 18.5odds17.00Closing chance estimate3.6%Closing EV estimate−39.0%margin5.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:12

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 00:06: over 10.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 14 Oct, 06:18. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 30.5Actual: 29−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9117 Oct, 04:39

Closing odds1.8317 Oct, 10:03

Odds down−0.08

Model chance at recommendation: 53.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.87
Expected value at recommendation: +2.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 53.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.87. Expected value at recommendation: +2.4%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 87 settled picksand +11.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 30.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds1.83
Odds down−0.08
Model chance53.7%EV+2.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 10:03
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 30.5odds1.83Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate−1.7%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 10:03
KambiClosing estimateover 30.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.55
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.6%EV-16.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 14:25
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 30.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.55Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate−16.9%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:37
- over 31.5odds1.72Closing chance estimate47.3%Closing EV estimate−18.7%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:25
- over 32.5odds1.91Closing chance estimate41.0%Closing EV estimate−21.7%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:25
- over 33.5odds2.16Closing chance estimate35.1%Closing EV estimate−24.3%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:25
LiderbetClosing estimateover 30.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.6%EV-3.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 06:10
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 29.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate60.0%Closing EV estimate−4.0%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 06:10
- over 30.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate−3.4%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 06:10
- over 31.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate47.3%Closing EV estimate−5.5%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 06:10
SuperbetClosing estimateover 30.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.45
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.6%EV-22.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 14:52
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 28.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate66.2%Closing EV estimate−18.6%margin10.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:10
- over 29.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate60.0%Closing EV estimate−20.8%margin10.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:10
- over 30.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate−22.2%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:52
- over 31.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate47.3%Closing EV estimate−24.4%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:52
- over 32.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate41.0%Closing EV estimate−26.2%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 04:23
- over 33.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate35.1%Closing EV estimate−28.1%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 14:02
- over 34.5odds2.32Closing chance estimate29.5%Closing EV estimate−31.5%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:52
- over 35.5odds2.67Closing chance estimate24.5%Closing EV estimate−34.6%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:52
- over 36.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate20.0%Closing EV estimate−38.0%margin10.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:10

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 04:39: over 30.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 08:33. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Botafogo total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 19.5Actual: 20+0.80u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8017 Oct, 06:11

Closing odds1.8017 Oct, 06:10

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 59.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.67
Expected value at recommendation: +7.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 59.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.67. Expected value at recommendation: +7.8%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 187 settled picksand +10.8% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 19.5
At recommendation1.80
Closing odds1.80
Unchanged
Model chance59.9%EV+7.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 06:10
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 18.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate65.5%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 06:10
- over 19.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate59.0%Closing EV estimate+6.2%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 06:10
- over 20.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate52.4%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 06:10
Bet365Closing estimateover 19.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.0%EV+8.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 10:03
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 19.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimate59.0%Closing EV estimate+8.2%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 10:03
SuperbetClosing estimateover 19.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.61
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.0%EV-5.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 14:52
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 17.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate71.7%Closing EV estimate−5.3%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:35
- over 18.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate65.5%Closing EV estimate−5.0%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:35
- over 19.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.61Closing chance estimate59.0%Closing EV estimate−5.0%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:35
- over 20.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate52.4%Closing EV estimate−5.6%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:52
- over 21.5odds2.07Closing chance estimate45.9%Closing EV estimate−5.0%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:35
- over 22.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate39.6%Closing EV estimate−5.0%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:35
- over 23.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate33.6%Closing EV estimate−5.9%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:52
- over 24.5odds3.00Closing chance estimate28.0%Closing EV estimate−15.9%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:30

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 06:11: over 19.5 at 1.80 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 10.5Actual: 11+1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0015 Oct, 06:18

Closing odds1.8017 Oct, 09:05

Odds down−0.20

Model chance at recommendation: 51.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.95
Expected value at recommendation: +2.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 51.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.95. Expected value at recommendation: +2.8%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 88 settled picksand +27.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 10.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds1.80
Odds down−0.20
Model chance51.4%EV+2.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 09:05
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 10.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate60.8%Closing EV estimate+9.4%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:05
CrocobetAt recommendationover 10.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds1.85
Unchanged
Model chance60.7%EV+12.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 06:01
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 9.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate71.9%Closing EV estimate+11.5%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 06:01
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate60.8%Closing EV estimate+12.4%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 06:01
- over 11.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate49.0%Closing EV estimate+15.2%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 06:01
SuperbetAt recommendationover 10.5
At recommendation2.17
Closing odds1.95
Odds down−0.22
Model chance60.7%EV+31.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 14:45
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 5.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate97.3%Closing EV estimate−1.7%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:30
- over 6.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate94.2%Closing EV estimate−1.1%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:35
- over 7.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate89.0%Closing EV estimate+2.4%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:35
- over 8.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate81.5%Closing EV estimate+8.4%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:45
- over 9.5odds1.58Closing chance estimate71.9%Closing EV estimate+13.6%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:45
- over 10.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate60.8%Closing EV estimate+18.5%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:35
- over 11.5odds2.47Closing chance estimate49.0%Closing EV estimate+21.1%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:35
- over 12.5odds3.25Closing chance estimate37.7%Closing EV estimate+22.6%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:35
- over 13.5odds4.35Closing chance estimate27.6%Closing EV estimate+20.1%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:35
- over 14.5odds5.80Closing chance estimate19.3%Closing EV estimate+11.7%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:35
KambiClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.76
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.8%EV+6.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 14:25
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 7.5odds1.14Closing chance estimate89.0%Closing EV estimate+1.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 06:21
- over 8.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate81.5%Closing EV estimate+1.9%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 12:37
- over 9.5odds1.46Closing chance estimate71.9%Closing EV estimate+5.0%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:25
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.76Closing chance estimate60.8%Closing EV estimate+6.9%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:25
- over 11.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate49.0%Closing EV estimate+7.9%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:01
- over 12.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate37.7%Closing EV estimate+7.5%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 14:01
- over 13.5odds4.10Closing chance estimate27.6%Closing EV estimate+13.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 06:21
LiderbetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.8%EV+9.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 06:10
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 9.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate71.9%Closing EV estimate+7.9%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 06:10
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate60.8%Closing EV estimate+9.4%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 06:10
- over 11.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate49.0%Closing EV estimate+15.2%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 06:10

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 06:18: over 10.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 09:05. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−5.0%ROI · 4 units staked

Profit−0.20units

W / L2 / 2picks

Avg odds1.93settled picks

Recorded picks41 matches

Around this match

CompetitionBrasileirão Série A Home teamBotafogo Away teamChapecoense RefereeRaphael Claus

Previous meetings

Sat 18 AprChapecoense 1-4 Botafogo

Match overview

Matches

Corners · match total

Shots · match total

Shots · Botafogo total

Shots on target · match total

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