Bologna vs Inter 1-3 — Serie A

Serie ASerie A 26/27

Bologna

1–3

HT 1–1

Inter

Sat 17 Oct·10:00·Matchday 7·Renato Dall'Ara·Inter won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

2Corners6
4Cards3
11Shots17
4Shots on target8
8Fouls11
9Throw-ins17
3Offsides3
10Goal kicks10
5Saves3
12Tackles11
13Interceptions7
6Dribbles5

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

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We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

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Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

10:00BolognavInterSerie A4 won / 0 lost · +4.48u · 4 picks

Corners · Bologna total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 3.5Actual: 2+1.12u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1217 Oct, 09:49

Closing odds2.1217 Oct, 09:10

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 53.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.87
Expected value at recommendation: +13.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 53.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.87. Expected value at recommendation: +13.6%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 182 settled picksand +1.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation2.12
Closing odds2.12
Unchanged
Model chance53.6%EV+13.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 09:37
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds6.00Closing chance estimate19.0%Closing EV estimate+14.2%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:10
- under 2.5odds3.25Closing chance estimate36.1%Closing EV estimate+17.2%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:37
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.12Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate+13.6%margin8.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:10
- under 4.5odds1.57Closing chance estimate69.0%Closing EV estimate+8.4%margin8.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:10
- under 5.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate81.1%Closing EV estimate+5.4%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:10
- under 6.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate89.5%Closing EV estimate+3.8%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:37
Bet365Closing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.6%EV-1.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 09:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate−1.8%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:02
BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.6%EV+7.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 00:31
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds3.25Closing chance estimate36.1%Closing EV estimate+17.2%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 00:31
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate+7.2%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 00:31
- under 4.5odds1.47Closing chance estimate69.0%Closing EV estimate+1.5%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 00:31
- under 5.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate81.1%Closing EV estimate−2.7%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 00:31
- under 6.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate89.5%Closing EV estimate−5.2%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 00:31
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.6%EV+7.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 16 Oct, 03:17
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate36.1%Closing EV estimate+19.0%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 03:17
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate+7.2%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 03:17
- under 4.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate69.0%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 03:17
- under 5.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate81.1%Closing EV estimate−2.7%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 03:17
- under 6.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate89.5%Closing EV estimate−6.1%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 03:17
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.6%EV+7.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 09:11
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate36.1%Closing EV estimate+19.0%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:11
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate+7.2%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:11
- under 4.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate69.0%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:11
- under 5.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate81.1%Closing EV estimate−4.3%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:11
- under 6.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate89.5%Closing EV estimate−7.0%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:11
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.6%EV+4.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 09:46
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate36.1%Closing EV estimate+19.0%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:46
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate+4.5%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:46
- under 4.5odds1.44Closing chance estimate69.0%Closing EV estimate−0.3%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:46
- under 5.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate81.1%Closing EV estimate−2.7%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:46
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.6%EV+7.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 09:10
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 0.5odds16.00Closing chance estimate6.1%Closing EV estimate−2.6%margin5.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:10
- under 1.5odds5.75Closing chance estimate19.0%Closing EV estimate+9.4%margin6.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:10
- under 2.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate36.1%Closing EV estimate+10.0%margin6.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:10
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate53.6%Closing EV estimate+7.2%margin7.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:10
- under 4.5odds1.51Closing chance estimate69.0%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:10
- under 5.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate81.1%Closing EV estimate+3.0%margin6.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:10
- under 6.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate89.5%Closing EV estimate+1.1%margin7.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:10
- under 7.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate94.6%Closing EV estimate+0.3%margin6.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:10
- under 8.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate97.5%Closing EV estimate−0.6%margin5.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 15 Oct, 10:24
- under 9.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate98.9%Closing EV estimate−0.4%margin4.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:10

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 09:49: under 3.5 at 2.12 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · Inter total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 16.5Actual: 17+1.30u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.3015 Oct, 06:24

Closing odds1.9017 Oct, 08:31

Odds down−0.40

Model chance at recommendation: 64.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.55
Expected value at recommendation: +48.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 64.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.55. Expected value at recommendation: +48.8%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 124 settled picksand +6.2% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 16.5
At recommendation2.30
Closing odds1.90
Odds down−0.40
Model chance64.7%EV+48.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 09:11
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 14.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate83.3%Closing EV estimate+20.8%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 01:13
- over 15.5odds1.66Closing chance estimate77.9%Closing EV estimate+29.4%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:11
- over 16.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate71.9%Closing EV estimate+36.6%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:31
- over 17.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate65.4%Closing EV estimate+43.9%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:31
Bet365Closing estimateover 16.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance71.9%EV+37.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 09:46
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate71.9%Closing EV estimate+37.3%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:46
BetliveClosing estimateover 16.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance71.9%EV+36.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 05:05
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 14.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate83.3%Closing EV estimate+18.3%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:05
- over 15.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate77.9%Closing EV estimate+24.7%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:05
- over 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate71.9%Closing EV estimate+36.6%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:05
- over 17.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate65.4%Closing EV estimate+50.5%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:05
- over 18.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate58.6%Closing EV estimate+67.2%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:05
CrocobetClosing estimateover 16.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance71.9%EV+29.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 08:28
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 13.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate87.9%Closing EV estimate+14.3%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:08
- over 14.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate83.3%Closing EV estimate+12.5%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:28
- over 15.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate77.9%Closing EV estimate+20.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:28
- over 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate71.9%Closing EV estimate+29.4%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:28
- over 17.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate65.4%Closing EV estimate+37.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:28
- over 18.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate58.6%Closing EV estimate+55.4%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:28
LiderbetClosing estimateover 16.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance71.9%EV+22.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 09:37
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 14.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate83.3%Closing EV estimate+20.8%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 07:11
- over 15.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate77.9%Closing EV estimate+16.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:37
- over 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate71.9%Closing EV estimate+22.3%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:37
- over 17.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate65.4%Closing EV estimate+34.1%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:37
SuperbetClosing estimateover 16.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance71.9%EV+31.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 09:59
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 13.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate87.9%Closing EV estimate+13.4%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:37
- over 14.5odds1.43Closing chance estimate83.3%Closing EV estimate+19.1%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 03:51
- over 15.5odds1.61Closing chance estimate77.9%Closing EV estimate+25.5%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:59
- over 16.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimate71.9%Closing EV estimate+31.6%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:39
- over 17.5odds2.12Closing chance estimate65.4%Closing EV estimate+38.7%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:59
- over 18.5odds2.47Closing chance estimate58.6%Closing EV estimate+44.9%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 07:46
- over 19.5odds2.92Closing chance estimate51.8%Closing EV estimate+51.2%margin10.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 03:51

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 06:24: over 16.5 at 2.30 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots on target · Inter total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 5.5Actual: 8+1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0017 Oct, 03:49

Closing odds1.8017 Oct, 04:30

Odds down−0.20

Model chance at recommendation: 50.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.99
Expected value at recommendation: +0.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 50.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.99. Expected value at recommendation: +0.7%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 132 settled picksand +6.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 5.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds1.80
Odds down−0.20
Model chance50.4%EV+0.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 04:30
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 5.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate50.6%Closing EV estimate−8.9%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 04:30
BetliveClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV-14.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 05:05
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 4.5odds1.34Closing chance estimate66.9%Closing EV estimate−10.4%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:05
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate50.6%Closing EV estimate−14.0%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:05
- over 6.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate35.1%Closing EV estimate−21.0%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:05
CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV-14.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 05:08
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 4.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate66.9%Closing EV estimate−9.7%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:08
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate50.6%Closing EV estimate−14.0%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:08
- over 6.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate35.1%Closing EV estimate−19.3%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:08
KambiClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV-19.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 09:11
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate81.3%Closing EV estimate−10.6%margin12.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 16 Oct, 19:25
- over 4.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate66.9%Closing EV estimate−14.4%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:31
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.60Closing chance estimate50.6%Closing EV estimate−19.0%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:31
- over 6.5odds2.12Closing chance estimate35.1%Closing EV estimate−25.6%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:11
- over 7.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate22.3%Closing EV estimate−34.2%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:31
- over 8.5odds4.20Closing chance estimate13.0%Closing EV estimate−45.3%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 08:31
LiderbetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV-16.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 09:11
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 4.5odds1.34Closing chance estimate66.9%Closing EV estimate−10.4%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:11
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimate50.6%Closing EV estimate−16.5%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:11
- over 6.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate35.1%Closing EV estimate−22.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:11
SuperbetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.82
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.6%EV-7.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 09:59
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate91.7%Closing EV estimate−5.5%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:37
- over 3.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate81.3%Closing EV estimate−5.7%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:59
- over 4.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate66.9%Closing EV estimate−6.4%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:59
- over 5.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.82Closing chance estimate50.6%Closing EV estimate−7.9%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:37
- over 6.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate35.1%Closing EV estimate−14.0%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:37
- over 7.5odds3.40Closing chance estimate22.3%Closing EV estimate−24.1%margin10.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:37
- over 8.5odds4.90Closing chance estimate13.0%Closing EV estimate−36.2%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:37

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 03:49: over 5.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 17 Oct, 04:30. The original pick remains in the results.

Throw-ins · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 31.5Actual: 26+1.06u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0617 Oct, 04:14

Closing odds2.0017 Oct, 09:11

Odds down−0.06

Model chance at recommendation: 60.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.66
Expected value at recommendation: +24.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 60.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.66. Expected value at recommendation: +24.1%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 310 settled picksand +1.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveAt recommendationunder 31.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds2.00
Unchanged
Model chance60.3%EV+20.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 05:05
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 30.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate54.5%Closing EV estimate+25.3%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:05
- under 31.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate60.3%Closing EV estimate+20.7%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:05
- under 32.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate65.9%Closing EV estimate+18.6%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:05
- under 33.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate71.1%Closing EV estimate+13.7%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:05
- under 34.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate75.8%Closing EV estimate+9.9%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:05
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 31.5
At recommendation2.06
Closing odds2.00
Odds down−0.06
Model chance60.2%EV+24.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 09:11
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 29.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate48.4%Closing EV estimate+26.0%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:11
- under 30.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate54.5%Closing EV estimate+22.6%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:11
- under 31.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate60.3%Closing EV estimate+20.7%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:11
- under 32.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate65.9%Closing EV estimate+18.6%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:11
- under 33.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate71.1%Closing EV estimate+13.7%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:11
- under 34.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate75.8%Closing EV estimate+9.9%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:11
- under 35.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate80.0%Closing EV estimate+6.4%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 09:11
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 31.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.3%EV+17.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 17 Oct, 05:08
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 30.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate54.5%Closing EV estimate+19.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:08
- under 31.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate60.3%Closing EV estimate+17.7%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:08
- under 32.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate65.9%Closing EV estimate+18.6%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:08
- under 33.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate71.1%Closing EV estimate+17.3%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:08
- under 34.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate75.8%Closing EV estimate+13.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 05:08
- under 35.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate80.0%Closing EV estimate+32.0%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 04:14
- under 36.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate83.7%Closing EV estimate+25.5%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 17 Oct, 04:14

Recommendation record

Recorded 17 Oct, 04:14: under 31.5 at 2.06 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return+112.0%ROI · 4 units staked

Profit+4.48units

W / L4 / 0picks

Avg odds2.12settled picks

Recorded picks41 matches

Around this match

CompetitionSerie A Home teamBologna Away teamInter RefereeDaniele Doveri

Match overview

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Corners · Bologna total

Shots · Inter total

Shots on target · Inter total

Throw-ins · match total

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