Boca Juniors vs Vasco da Gama 0-1 — CONMEBOL Sudamericana

CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Boca Juniors

0–1

HT 0–1

Vasco da Gama

Tue 13 Oct·18:30·Semi final·Alberto Jose Armando·Vasco da Gama won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

9Corners1
1Cards4
18Shots9
2Shots on target2
8Fouls11
28Throw-ins19
1Offsides1
7Goal kicks14
1Saves2
17Tackles17
13Interceptions9
11Dribbles18

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Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

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Board

Matches

1 match

18:30Boca JuniorsvVasco da GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana4 won / 3 lost · +2.21u · 7 picks

Cards · Vasco da Gama total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 2.5Actual: 4−1.00u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1013 Oct, 15:10

Closing odds2.1013 Oct, 05:03

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 60.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.65
Expected value at recommendation: +27.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 60.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.65. Expected value at recommendation: +27.5%.

At recommendation, Crocobet’s overall market record had 99 settled picksand +6.8% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation2.25
Closing odds2.25
Unchanged
Model chance60.7%EV+36.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 05:28
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.25Closing chance estimate60.7%Closing EV estimate+36.5%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:28
- under 3.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate83.2%Closing EV estimate+24.7%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:28
Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds2.10
Unchanged
Model chance60.7%EV+27.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 05:03
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate60.7%Closing EV estimate+27.4%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:03
- under 3.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate83.2%Closing EV estimate+16.4%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:03
SuperbetAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance60.7%EV+30.4%
KambiClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.60
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.7%EV+57.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 15:06
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.60Closing chance estimate60.7%Closing EV estimate+57.7%margin8.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 08:59
- under 3.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate83.2%Closing EV estimate+41.4%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 14:39
- under 4.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate94.1%Closing EV estimate+22.4%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 15:06

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 15:10: under 2.5 at 2.10 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 15:34. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Vasco da Gama total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 3.5Actual: 1+0.91u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9112 Oct, 04:32

Closing odds1.9113 Oct, 13:03

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 52.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.91
Expected value at recommendation: +0.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 52.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.91. Expected value at recommendation: +0.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds1.91
Unchanged
Model chance52.6%EV+0.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 13:03
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate52.7%Closing EV estimate+0.7%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 13:03
KambiAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation1.93
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance52.5%EV+1.2%
SuperbetAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds1.95
Unchanged
Model chance52.5%EV+2.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 12 Oct, 18:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 0.5odds15.00Closing chance estimate5.3%Closing EV estimate−20.7%margin5.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 18:20
- under 1.5odds5.45Closing chance estimate17.9%Closing EV estimate−2.5%margin8.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 18:20
- under 2.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate35.2%Closing EV estimate+3.7%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 18:20
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate52.7%Closing EV estimate+2.8%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 18:20
- under 4.5odds1.49Closing chance estimate67.9%Closing EV estimate+1.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 18:20
- under 5.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate79.6%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 18:20
- under 6.5odds1.12Closing chance estimate88.0%Closing EV estimate−1.5%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 18:20
- under 7.5odds1.05Closing chance estimate93.4%Closing EV estimate−2.0%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 18:32
- under 8.5odds1.02Closing chance estimate96.6%Closing EV estimate−1.5%margin5.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 18:32
- under 9.5odds1.00Closing chance estimate98.4%Closing EV estimate−1.2%margin4.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 12 Oct, 18:32
BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.7%EV-10.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 16:19
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds5.50Closing chance estimate17.9%Closing EV estimate−1.6%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 16:19
- under 2.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate35.2%Closing EV estimate−8.6%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 16:19
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate52.7%Closing EV estimate−10.4%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 16:19
- under 4.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate67.9%Closing EV estimate−13.1%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 16:19
- under 5.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate79.6%Closing EV estimate−13.2%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 16:19
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.7%EV-10.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 05:03
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate35.2%Closing EV estimate−5.1%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:03
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate52.7%Closing EV estimate−10.4%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:03
- under 4.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate67.9%Closing EV estimate−11.7%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:03
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.65
No saved recommendation
Model chance52.7%EV-13.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 16:21
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds5.80Closing chance estimate17.9%Closing EV estimate+3.7%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 16:21
- under 2.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate35.2%Closing EV estimate−6.8%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 16:21
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.65Closing chance estimate52.7%Closing EV estimate−13.0%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 16:21
- under 4.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate67.9%Closing EV estimate−14.5%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 16:21
- under 5.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate79.6%Closing EV estimate−15.6%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 16:21

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 04:32: under 3.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 16:48. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · Vasco da Gama total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 12.5Actual: 11+1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0013 Oct, 03:42

Closing odds1.5013 Oct, 05:56

Odds down−0.50

Model chance at recommendation: 75.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.33
Expected value at recommendation: +51.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 75.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.33. Expected value at recommendation: +51.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 12.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds1.50
Odds down−0.50
Model chance75.6%EV+51.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 07:13
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 10.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate57.6%Closing EV estimate+18.1%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 07:13
- under 11.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate67.4%Closing EV estimate+11.2%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 07:13
- under 12.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate75.7%Closing EV estimate+13.6%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:56
- under 13.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate82.4%Closing EV estimate+23.6%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:03
BetliveClosing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance75.7%EV+13.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 17:37
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 10.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate57.6%Closing EV estimate+29.6%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 17:37
- under 11.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate67.4%Closing EV estimate+21.3%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 17:37
- under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimate75.7%Closing EV estimate+13.6%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 17:37
- under 13.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate82.4%Closing EV estimate+23.6%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:28
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.35
No saved recommendation
Model chance75.7%EV+2.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 07:13
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 10.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate57.6%Closing EV estimate+20.9%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 07:13
- under 11.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate67.4%Closing EV estimate+7.9%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 07:13
- under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.35Closing chance estimate75.7%Closing EV estimate+2.2%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 07:13
- under 13.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate82.4%Closing EV estimate+23.6%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:03
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance75.7%EV+51.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 18:06
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate75.7%Closing EV estimate+51.4%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 14:38
- under 13.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate82.4%Closing EV estimate+44.2%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 18:06
- under 14.5odds1.42Closing chance estimate87.6%Closing EV estimate+24.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 14:38

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 03:42: under 12.5 at 2.00 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 10:15. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Vasco da Gama total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 10.5Actual: 9−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0012 Oct, 00:06

Closing odds2.0013 Oct, 18:03

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 60.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.65
Expected value at recommendation: +21.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 60.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.65. Expected value at recommendation: +21.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 10.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds2.00
Unchanged
Model chance60.9%EV+21.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 18:03
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate59.4%Closing EV estimate+18.8%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 18:03
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.61
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.4%EV-4.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 18:28
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.61Closing chance estimate59.4%Closing EV estimate−4.4%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 18:28
KambiClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.61
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.4%EV-4.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 18:07
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 9.5odds1.61Closing chance estimate69.9%Closing EV estimate+12.5%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 16:24
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.61Closing chance estimate59.4%Closing EV estimate−4.4%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 18:07
- over 11.5odds1.88Closing chance estimate48.6%Closing EV estimate−8.7%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 17:40
- over 12.5odds2.23Closing chance estimate38.2%Closing EV estimate−14.8%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 18:07
SuperbetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.62
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.4%EV-3.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 18:06
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 7.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate87.0%Closing EV estimate+5.2%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 15:56
- over 8.5odds1.25Closing chance estimate79.3%Closing EV estimate−0.9%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 18:06
- over 9.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate69.9%Closing EV estimate−2.1%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 18:06
- over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.62Closing chance estimate59.4%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 18:06
- over 11.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate48.6%Closing EV estimate−7.7%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 18:06
- over 12.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate38.2%Closing EV estimate−12.1%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 18:06
- over 13.5odds2.85Closing chance estimate28.9%Closing EV estimate−17.6%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 18:06
- over 14.5odds3.55Closing chance estimate21.0%Closing EV estimate−25.3%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 18:06

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 00:06: over 10.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 02:28. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Boca Juniors total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 2+1.85u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.857 Oct, 10:51

Closing odds1.9113 Oct, 18:20

Odds down−0.94

Model chance at recommendation: 58.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.70
Expected value at recommendation: +67.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 58.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.70. Expected value at recommendation: +67.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.85
Closing odds1.91
Odds down−0.94
Model chance58.9%EV+67.8%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 18:20
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate44.3%Closing EV estimate+24.0%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 18:20
- under 4.5odds1.91Closing chance estimate61.9%Closing EV estimate+18.2%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 18:20
- under 5.5odds1.47Closing chance estimate76.5%Closing EV estimate+12.4%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 18:20
- under 6.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate86.9%Closing EV estimate+6.9%margin9.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 18:20
- under 7.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate93.3%Closing EV estimate+5.5%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 08:59
- under 8.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate96.9%Closing EV estimate+7.6%margin9.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 11 Oct, 06:20
Bet365Closing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.9%EV+23.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 14:08
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate61.9%Closing EV estimate+23.7%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 14:08
BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.9%EV+5.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 18:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate44.3%Closing EV estimate+10.7%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 18:02
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate61.9%Closing EV estimate+5.2%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 18:02
- under 5.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate76.5%Closing EV estimate+1.7%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 18:02
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.9%EV+11.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 05:55
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate44.3%Closing EV estimate+15.1%margin13.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:55
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate61.9%Closing EV estimate+11.4%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:55
- under 5.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate76.5%Closing EV estimate+3.2%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:55
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.9%EV+14.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 05:29
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate61.9%Closing EV estimate+14.5%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:29
- under 5.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate76.5%Closing EV estimate+7.1%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:29
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.58
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.9%EV-2.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 18:06
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds6.70Closing chance estimate11.7%Closing EV estimate−21.6%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 18:06
- under 2.5odds3.50Closing chance estimate26.4%Closing EV estimate−7.7%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 18:06
- under 3.5odds2.22Closing chance estimate44.3%Closing EV estimate−1.7%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 18:06
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.58Closing chance estimate61.9%Closing EV estimate−2.2%margin8.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 18:06
- under 5.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate76.5%Closing EV estimate−3.7%margin10.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 18:06
- under 6.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate86.9%Closing EV estimate−3.6%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 17:40
- under 7.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate93.3%Closing EV estimate−3.9%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 17:40

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: under 4.5 at 2.85 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 7 Oct, 16:32. The original pick remains in the results.

Throw-ins · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 44.5Actual: 47+1.45u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.4513 Oct, 05:36

Closing odds2.4513 Oct, 05:28

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 59.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.69
Expected value at recommendation: +45.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 59.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.69. Expected value at recommendation: +45.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 44.5
At recommendation2.45
Closing odds2.45
Unchanged
Model chance59.2%EV+45.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 05:28
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 39.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate79.8%Closing EV estimate+15.7%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:28
- over 40.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate76.4%Closing EV estimate+18.4%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:28
- over 41.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate72.7%Closing EV estimate+23.6%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:28
- over 42.5odds1.95Closing chance estimate68.8%Closing EV estimate+34.2%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:28
- over 43.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate64.8%Closing EV estimate+36.0%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:28
- over 44.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.45Closing chance estimate60.6%Closing EV estimate+48.4%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:28

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 05:36: over 44.5 at 2.45 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Throw-ins · Vasco da Gama total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 20.5Actual: 19−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1013 Oct, 15:34

Closing odds2.1013 Oct, 05:28

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 58.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.72
Expected value at recommendation: +22.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 58.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.72. Expected value at recommendation: +22.4%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 30 settled picksand +9.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 20.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds2.10
Unchanged
Model chance58.3%EV+22.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 05:28
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 17.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate75.6%Closing EV estimate+3.6%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:28
- over 18.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate70.1%Closing EV estimate+8.6%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:28
- over 19.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate64.3%Closing EV estimate+15.7%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:28
- over 20.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate58.3%Closing EV estimate+22.4%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:28
CrocobetClosing estimateover 20.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance58.3%EV+16.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 13 Oct, 05:03
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 18.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate70.1%Closing EV estimate+12.1%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:03
- over 19.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate64.3%Closing EV estimate+12.5%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:03
- over 20.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate58.3%Closing EV estimate+16.6%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 13 Oct, 05:03

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 15:34: over 20.5 at 2.10 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 17:26. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return+31.6%ROI · 7 units staked

Profit+2.21units

W / L4 / 3picks

Avg odds2.20settled picks

Recorded picks71 matches

Around this match

CompetitionCONMEBOL Sudamericana Home teamBoca Juniors Away teamVasco da Gama RefereePiero Maza

Previous meetings

Tue 20 OctVasco da Gama 1-3 Boca Juniors

Match overview

Matches

Cards · Vasco da Gama total

Corners · Vasco da Gama total

Fouls · Vasco da Gama total

Shots · Vasco da Gama total

Shots on target · Boca Juniors total

Throw-ins · match total

Throw-ins · Vasco da Gama total

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