Benfica vs Celtic 4-1 — UEFA Europa League

UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League 26/27

Benfica

4–1

HT 3–0

Celtic

Thu 15 Oct·13:00·Matchday 2·Estádio da Luz·Benfica won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

8Corners6
3Cards0
26Shots14
7Shots on target7
9Fouls7
10Throw-ins11
2Offsides2
4Goal kicks10
6Saves3
16Tackles18
9Interceptions4
8Dribbles6

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

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Board

Matches

1 match

13:00BenficavCelticUEFA Europa League4 won / 2 lost · +1.90u · 6 picks

Fouls · Benfica total

Open match →FreeWon

under 10.5Actual: 9+1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0015 Oct, 00:14

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 56.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.78
Expected value at recommendation: +12.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.78. Expected value at recommendation: +12.9%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 138 settled picksand +2.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 10.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.5%EV+12.9%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.2%EV+9.6%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.2%EV+12.5%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.2%EV+12.5%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 00:14: under 10.5 at 2.00 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 15 Oct, 12:10. The original pick remains in the results.

Goal kicks · Celtic total

Open match →VIPWon

under 10.5Actual: 10+0.90u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9014 Oct, 22:18

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 57.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.75
Expected value at recommendation: +8.7%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 57.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.75. Expected value at recommendation: +8.7%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 81 settled picksand +12.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 10.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.2%EV+8.7%
BetliveClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.39
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.0%EV-25.0%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.0%EV-19.1%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.0%EV-19.1%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 22:18: under 10.5 at 1.90 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goals · match total

Open match →FreeLost

under 3.5Actual: 5−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0015 Oct, 04:06

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 59.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.69
Expected value at recommendation: +18.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 59.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.69. Expected value at recommendation: +18.4%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 58 settled picksand +6.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance59.2%EV+18.4%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.26
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.3%EV+27.2%
33 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.3%EV+15.4%
12 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.3%EV+15.4%
12 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.3%EV+15.4%
22 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.3%EV+18.2%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
PinnacleClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.18
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.3%EV+22.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.3%EV+21.0%
22 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 04:06: under 3.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · Benfica total

Open match →VIPWon

over 20.5Actual: 26+1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0015 Oct, 09:06

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 2.00
Expected value at recommendation: +0.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 50.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +0.0%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 124 settled picksand +11.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 20.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.0%EV+0.0%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetAt recommendationover 20.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.0%EV+0.0%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 20.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.5%EV-7.5%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 20.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.5%EV-1.6%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 20.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.62
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.5%EV-18.2%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 20.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.5%EV-6.6%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 09:06: over 20.5 at 2.00 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · Celtic total

Open match →FreeLost

under 8.5Actual: 14−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9613 Oct, 16:48

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 72.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.39
Expected value at recommendation: +41.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 72.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.39. Expected value at recommendation: +41.2%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 30 settled picksand +9.9% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 8.5
At recommendation1.96
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance72.1%EV+41.2%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance78.2%EV+43.4%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.40
No saved recommendation
Model chance78.2%EV+87.8%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance78.2%EV+80.0%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.40
No saved recommendation
Model chance78.2%EV+87.8%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 8.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance78.2%EV+44.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 16:48: under 8.5 at 1.96 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →VIPWon

over 10.5Actual: 14+1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0012 Oct, 18:18

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.99
Expected value at recommendation: +1.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.99. Expected value at recommendation: +1.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 10.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.5%EV+1.0%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationover 10.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance52.2%EV+1.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetAt recommendationover 10.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.4%EV+3.2%
BetliveClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.1%EV+1.9%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.62
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.1%EV-10.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.1%EV-0.9%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 18:18: over 10.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 15 Oct, 04:00. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return+31.7%ROI · 6 units staked

Profit+1.90units

W / L4 / 2picks

Avg odds1.98settled picks

Recorded picks61 matches

Around this match

CompetitionUEFA Europa League Home teamBenfica Away teamCeltic RefereeDabanovic, Nikola