Benfica vs Celtic — UEFA Europa League

UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League 26/27

Benfica

4–1

Celtic

Thu 15 Oct··Matchday 2·Estádio da Luz·Benfica won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time
  • 8Corners6
  • 3Cards0
  • 26Shots14
  • 7Shots on target7
  • 9Fouls7
  • 10Throw-ins11
  • 2Offsides2
  • 4Goal kicks10
  • 6Saves3
  • 16Tackles18
  • 9Interceptions4
  • 8Dribbles6
OddsOddsStatsStatsPredictionsPicksRefereeRefereeCoachCoach
0Free available0VIP available3Recorded Free3Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match
BenficavCelticUEFA Europa League4 won / 2 lost · +1.90u · 6 picks

Fouls · Benfica total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 10.5Actual: 9+1.00u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds2.00
Unchanged
Model chance at recommendation
56.5%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.78
Expected value at recommendation
+12.9%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 56.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.78. Expected value at recommendation: +12.9%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 138 settled picksand +2.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 10.5
    At recommendation2.00
    Closing odds2.00
    Unchanged
    Model chance56.5%EV+12.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 14 Oct, 10:10

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate59.2%Closing EV estimate+18.5%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 10.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance59.2%EV+9.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 04:03

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 9.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate47.4%Closing EV estimate+9.0%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate59.2%Closing EV estimate+9.6%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate69.9%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate78.8%Closing EV estimate+10.4%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 10.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.90
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance59.2%EV+12.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 05:12

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 8.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate35.4%Closing EV estimate+16.7%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate47.4%Closing EV estimate+9.0%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate59.2%Closing EV estimate+12.5%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate69.9%Closing EV estimate+8.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate78.8%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin11.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 13.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate85.8%Closing EV estimate+9.8%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 10.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.90
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance59.2%EV+12.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 11:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 9.5odds2.40Closing chance estimate47.4%Closing EV estimate+13.8%margin13.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.90Closing chance estimate59.2%Closing EV estimate+12.5%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate69.9%Closing EV estimate+11.9%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate78.8%Closing EV estimate+14.3%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 00:14: under 10.5 at 2.00 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 15 Oct, 12:10. The original pick remains in the results.

Goal kicks · Celtic total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 10.5Actual: 10+0.90u on one unit
Superbetrecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance at recommendation
57.2%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.75
Expected value at recommendation
+8.7%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 57.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.75. Expected value at recommendation: +8.7%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 81 settled picksand +12.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 10.5
    At recommendation1.90
    Closing odds—
    No closing quote captured
    Model chance57.2%EV+8.7%
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 10.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.39
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance54.0%EV-25.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 00:27

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 7.5odds2.75Closing chance estimate25.3%Closing EV estimate−30.3%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate34.6%Closing EV estimate−29.1%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate44.3%Closing EV estimate−26.9%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.39Closing chance estimate54.0%Closing EV estimate−25.0%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 10.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.50
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance54.0%EV-19.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 00:37

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 7.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate25.3%Closing EV estimate−32.8%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate34.6%Closing EV estimate−20.4%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate44.3%Closing EV estimate−20.3%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimate54.0%Closing EV estimate−19.1%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 10.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.50
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance54.0%EV-19.1%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 11:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 7.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate25.3%Closing EV estimate−35.4%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate34.6%Closing EV estimate−22.2%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate44.3%Closing EV estimate−20.3%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimate54.0%Closing EV estimate−19.1%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 14 Oct, 22:18: under 10.5 at 1.90 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Goals · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 3.5Actual: 5−1.00u on one unit
Bet365recorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds2.20
Odds up+0.20
Model chance at recommendation
59.2%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.69
Expected value at recommendation
+18.4%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 59.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.69. Expected value at recommendation: +18.4%.

At recommendation, Bet365’s overall market record had 58 settled picksand +6.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
    At recommendation2.00
    Closing odds2.20
    Odds up+0.20
    Model chance59.2%EV+18.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 10:20

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds26.00Closing chance estimate3.4%Closing EV estimate−11.4%margin2.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds9.00Closing chance estimate14.9%Closing EV estimate+34.3%margin4.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate34.4%Closing EV estimate+28.9%margin4.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate56.3%Closing EV estimate+23.8%margin5.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.53Closing chance estimate74.8%Closing EV estimate+14.7%margin5.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate87.3%Closing EV estimate+6.7%margin4.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate94.4%Closing EV estimate+3.8%margin5.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate97.8%Closing EV estimate+0.7%margin3.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate99.2%Closing EV estimate+0.2%margin2.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • Betfair ExchangeClosing estimateunder 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.26
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance56.3%EV+27.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 11:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds50.00Closing chance estimate3.4%Closing EV estimate+70.3%margin1.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds10.00Closing chance estimate14.9%Closing EV estimate+49.2%margin0.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds4.10Closing chance estimate34.4%Closing EV estimate+40.9%margin0.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.26Closing chance estimate56.3%Closing EV estimate+27.2%margin0.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate74.8%Closing EV estimate+15.9%margin0.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.24Closing chance estimate87.3%Closing EV estimate+8.3%margin0.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate94.4%Closing EV estimate+3.8%margin0.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.04Closing chance estimate97.8%Closing EV estimate+1.7%margin0.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate99.2%Closing EV estimate+0.2%margin1.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.05
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance56.3%EV+15.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:47

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds9.60Closing chance estimate3.4%Closing EV estimate−67.3%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds6.40Closing chance estimate14.9%Closing EV estimate−4.5%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds3.35Closing chance estimate34.4%Closing EV estimate+15.1%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate56.3%Closing EV estimate+15.4%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.46Closing chance estimate74.8%Closing EV estimate+9.2%margin10.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate87.3%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate94.4%Closing EV estimate+1.0%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.05
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance56.3%EV+15.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:52

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds9.60Closing chance estimate3.4%Closing EV estimate−67.3%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds6.40Closing chance estimate14.9%Closing EV estimate−4.5%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds3.35Closing chance estimate34.4%Closing EV estimate+15.1%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate56.3%Closing EV estimate+15.4%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.47Closing chance estimate74.8%Closing EV estimate+10.0%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate87.3%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate94.4%Closing EV estimate+1.0%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.05
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance56.3%EV+15.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:57

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds9.60Closing chance estimate3.4%Closing EV estimate−67.3%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds6.40Closing chance estimate14.9%Closing EV estimate−4.5%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds3.35Closing chance estimate34.4%Closing EV estimate+15.1%margin9.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate56.3%Closing EV estimate+15.4%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate74.8%Closing EV estimate+8.5%margin10.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate87.3%Closing EV estimate+4.8%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.07Closing chance estimate94.4%Closing EV estimate+1.0%margin10.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 154.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 160.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 161.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 166.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 172.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 174.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 179.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 185.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 186.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
    • under 187.5odds1.80Closing chance estimateModel unavailableClosing EV estimate—margin11.1%Model unavailable
  • Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.10
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance56.3%EV+18.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 11:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 1.5odds8.00Closing chance estimate14.9%Closing EV estimate+19.3%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds3.80Closing chance estimate34.4%Closing EV estimate+30.6%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate56.3%Closing EV estimate+18.2%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.45Closing chance estimate74.8%Closing EV estimate+8.5%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.17Closing chance estimate87.3%Closing EV estimate+1.9%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate94.4%Closing EV estimate−0.4%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
  • PinnacleClosing estimateunder 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.18
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance56.3%EV+22.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 11:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.18Closing chance estimate56.3%Closing EV estimate+22.7%margin4.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.15
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance56.3%EV+21.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:47

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 0.5odds30.00Closing chance estimate3.4%Closing EV estimate+2.2%margin2.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 1.5odds8.40Closing chance estimate14.9%Closing EV estimate+25.3%margin4.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 2.5odds3.75Closing chance estimate34.4%Closing EV estimate+28.9%margin4.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.15Closing chance estimate56.3%Closing EV estimate+21.0%margin5.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 4.5odds1.51Closing chance estimate74.8%Closing EV estimate+12.9%margin5.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 5.5odds1.23Closing chance estimate87.3%Closing EV estimate+7.4%margin4.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 6.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate94.4%Closing EV estimate+2.9%margin4.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds1.03Closing chance estimate97.8%Closing EV estimate+0.7%margin4.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate99.2%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin2.7%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 04:06: under 3.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · Benfica total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 20.5Actual: 26+1.00u on one unit
Betliverecorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds2.00
Unchanged
Model chance at recommendation
50.0%
Minimum qualifying odds
2.00
Expected value at recommendation
+0.0%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 50.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 2.00. Expected value at recommendation: +0.0%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 124 settled picksand +11.7% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 20.5
    At recommendation2.00
    Closing odds2.00
    Unchanged
    Model chance50.0%EV+0.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 00:27

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 17.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate68.5%Closing EV estimate−6.8%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 18.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate62.7%Closing EV estimate−6.0%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 19.5odds1.75Closing chance estimate56.6%Closing EV estimate−1.0%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 20.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate50.5%Closing EV estimate+0.9%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 21.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate44.4%Closing EV estimate+8.8%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetAt recommendationover 20.5
    At recommendation2.00
    Closing odds1.80
    Odds down−0.20
    Model chance50.0%EV+0.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:22

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 17.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate68.5%Closing EV estimate+6.3%margin10.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 18.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate62.7%Closing EV estimate−6.0%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 19.5odds1.60Closing chance estimate56.6%Closing EV estimate−9.5%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 20.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate50.5%Closing EV estimate−9.2%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 21.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate44.4%Closing EV estimate−6.7%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateover 20.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.83
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance50.5%EV-7.5%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 06:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 20.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimate50.5%Closing EV estimate−7.5%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateover 20.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.95
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance50.5%EV-1.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 00:43

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 17.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate68.5%Closing EV estimate−10.9%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 18.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate62.7%Closing EV estimate−6.0%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 19.5odds1.70Closing chance estimate56.6%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 20.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate50.5%Closing EV estimate−1.6%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 21.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate44.4%Closing EV estimate+2.1%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiClosing estimateover 20.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.62
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance50.5%EV-18.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:52

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 20.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.62Closing chance estimate50.5%Closing EV estimate−18.2%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 21.5odds1.81Closing chance estimate44.4%Closing EV estimate−19.6%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 22.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate38.5%Closing EV estimate−21.0%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateover 20.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance50.5%EV-6.6%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:42

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 18.5odds1.39Closing chance estimate62.7%Closing EV estimate−12.9%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 19.5odds1.53Closing chance estimate56.6%Closing EV estimate−13.4%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 20.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate50.5%Closing EV estimate−6.6%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 22.5odds2.22Closing chance estimate38.5%Closing EV estimate−14.5%margin—Unmeasured estimate
    • over 23.5odds2.60Closing chance estimate32.9%Closing EV estimate−14.4%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 24.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate27.7%Closing EV estimate−15.6%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 09:06: over 20.5 at 2.00 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · Celtic total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 8.5Actual: 14−1.00u on one unit
Kambirecorded bookmaker
At recommendation1.96
Closing odds1.83
Odds down−0.13
Model chance at recommendation
72.1%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.39
Expected value at recommendation
+41.2%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 72.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.39. Expected value at recommendation: +41.2%.

At recommendation, Kambi’s overall market record had 30 settled picksand +9.9% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 8.5
    At recommendation1.96
    Closing odds1.83
    Odds down−0.13
    Model chance72.1%EV+41.2%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:52

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 8.5odds1.83Closing chance estimate78.2%Closing EV estimate+43.2%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate85.5%Closing EV estimate+32.6%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate90.9%Closing EV estimate+36.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • Bet365Closing estimateunder 8.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.83
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance78.2%EV+43.4%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 06:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimate78.2%Closing EV estimate+43.4%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • BetliveClosing estimateunder 8.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.40
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance78.2%EV+87.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 00:27

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.40Closing chance estimate78.2%Closing EV estimate+87.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds1.85Closing chance estimate85.5%Closing EV estimate+58.3%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate90.9%Closing EV estimate+36.4%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.31Closing chance estimate94.6%Closing EV estimate+23.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetClosing estimateunder 8.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.30
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance78.2%EV+80.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 00:43

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.30Closing chance estimate78.2%Closing EV estimate+80.0%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate85.5%Closing EV estimate+54.0%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate90.9%Closing EV estimate+36.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateunder 8.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds2.40
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance78.2%EV+87.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:22

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.40Closing chance estimate78.2%Closing EV estimate+87.8%margin13.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 9.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate85.5%Closing EV estimate+62.5%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 10.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate90.9%Closing EV estimate+40.9%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.54Closing chance estimate94.6%Closing EV estimate+45.7%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetClosing estimateunder 8.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance78.2%EV+44.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:12

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • under 6.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate58.1%Closing EV estimate+114.9%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 7.5odds2.72Closing chance estimate69.0%Closing EV estimate+87.7%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 8.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate78.2%Closing EV estimate+44.8%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 11.5odds1.29Closing chance estimate94.6%Closing EV estimate+22.0%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • under 12.5odds1.20Closing chance estimate96.9%Closing EV estimate+16.3%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 16:48: under 8.5 at 1.96 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 10.5Actual: 14+1.00u on one unit
Bet365recorded bookmaker
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds1.73
Odds down−0.27
Model chance at recommendation
50.5%
Minimum qualifying odds
1.99
Expected value at recommendation
+1.0%
Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.99. Expected value at recommendation: +1.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

  • Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 10.5
    At recommendation2.00
    Closing odds1.73
    Odds down−0.27
    Model chance50.5%EV+1.0%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 04:00

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 10.5odds1.73Closing chance estimate55.1%Closing EV estimate−4.9%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimate
  • CrocobetAt recommendationover 10.5
    At recommendation1.95
    Closing odds1.95
    Unchanged
    Model chance52.2%EV+1.7%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 14 Oct, 09:39

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 8.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate75.5%Closing EV estimate−1.9%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate65.7%Closing EV estimate+1.8%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate55.1%Closing EV estimate+7.4%margin11.9%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds2.45Closing chance estimate44.3%Closing EV estimate+8.6%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds3.30Closing chance estimate34.2%Closing EV estimate+12.9%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimate
  • SuperbetAt recommendationover 10.5
    At recommendation2.05
    Closing odds—
    No closing quote captured
    Model chance50.4%EV+3.2%
  • BetliveClosing estimateover 10.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.85
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance55.1%EV+1.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 00:27

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 8.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate75.5%Closing EV estimate−1.9%margin12.0%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate65.7%Closing EV estimate−1.5%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.85Closing chance estimate55.1%Closing EV estimate+1.9%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate44.3%Closing EV estimate+2.0%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds3.00Closing chance estimate34.2%Closing EV estimate+2.6%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
  • KambiClosing estimateover 10.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.62
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance55.1%EV-10.8%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 12:52

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 8.5odds1.27Closing chance estimate75.5%Closing EV estimate−4.2%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate65.7%Closing EV estimate−10.7%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.62Closing chance estimate55.1%Closing EV estimate−10.8%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds1.98Closing chance estimate44.3%Closing EV estimate−12.2%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate34.2%Closing EV estimate−12.8%margin10.6%Unmeasured estimate
  • LiderbetClosing estimateover 10.5
    At recommendation—
    Closing odds1.80
    No saved recommendation
    Model chance55.1%EV-0.9%
    Last captured before kickoffas of 15 Oct, 11:56

    Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.

    • over 7.5odds1.16Closing chance estimate83.8%Closing EV estimate−2.8%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 8.5odds1.32Closing chance estimate75.5%Closing EV estimate−0.4%margin12.1%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 9.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate65.7%Closing EV estimate−1.5%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 10.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate55.1%Closing EV estimate−0.9%margin12.7%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 11.5odds2.30Closing chance estimate44.3%Closing EV estimate+2.0%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 12.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate34.2%Closing EV estimate+4.3%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimate
    • over 13.5odds4.15Closing chance estimate25.3%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin11.8%Unmeasured estimate
Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 18:18: over 10.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 15 Oct, 04:00. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results
Return+31.7%ROI · 6 units staked
Profit+1.90units
W / L4 / 2picks
Avg odds1.98settled picks
Recorded picks61 matches

Around this match

CompetitionUEFA Europa LeagueHome teamBenficaAway teamCelticRefereeDabanovic, Nikola
Drag to move this button. Its position is remembered.