Bahia vs Mirassol 1-0 — Brasileirão Série A

Brasileirão Série ABrasileiro Serie A 2026

Bahia

1–0

HT 1–0

Mirassol

Sun 11 Oct·16:30·Matchday 30·Arena Fonte Nova·Bahia won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

6Corners2
1Cards4
16Shots10
2Shots on target2
13Fouls16
10Throw-ins22
1Offsides1
10Goal kicks8
2Saves1
20Tackles11
9Interceptions6
7Dribbles9

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

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0Free available0VIP available7Recorded Free2Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

16:30BahiavMirassolBrasileirão Série A1 won / 8 lost · −7.10u · 9 picks

Cards · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 5−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9511 Oct, 03:09

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.84
Expected value at recommendation: +6.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.84. Expected value at recommendation: +6.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.4%EV+6.0%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.2%EV+10.4%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.2%EV+2.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.2%EV+2.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.2%EV+2.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.2%EV-0.6%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 03:09: under 4.5 at 1.95 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Cards · Mirassol total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 2.5Actual: 4−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.029 Oct, 16:47

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 60.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.66
Expected value at recommendation: +22.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 60.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.66. Expected value at recommendation: +22.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance59.4%EV+15.8%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation2.02
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance60.4%EV+22.1%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.10
No saved recommendation
Model chance59.8%EV+25.6%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 16:47: under 2.5 at 2.02 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 03:09. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 10.5Actual: 8+0.90u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.907 Oct, 10:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 53.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.88
Expected value at recommendation: +1.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.88. Expected value at recommendation: +1.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKAt recommendationunder 10.5
At recommendation1.98
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.3%EV+5.5%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 10.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.3%EV+1.3%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationunder 10.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.3%EV+1.3%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiAt recommendationunder 10.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.3%EV+6.6%
LiderbetAt recommendationunder 10.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.3%EV+1.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-1.7%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV+0.8%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 10.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.2%EV-1.7%
16 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: under 10.5 at 1.90 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 7 Oct, 16:26. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 28.5Actual: 29−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8510 Oct, 10:17

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 78.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.28
Expected value at recommendation: +45.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 78.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.28. Expected value at recommendation: +45.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 28.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance78.4%EV+45.0%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 28.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.40
No saved recommendation
Model chance78.2%EV+9.5%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 28.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.35
No saved recommendation
Model chance78.2%EV+5.6%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 10:17: under 28.5 at 1.85 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 14:27. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · Mirassol total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 13.5Actual: 16−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0011 Oct, 03:36

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 66.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.51
Expected value at recommendation: +32.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 66.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.51. Expected value at recommendation: +32.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 13.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance66.4%EV+32.9%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 13.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance67.2%EV+24.2%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 13.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance67.2%EV+20.9%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 13.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.02
No saved recommendation
Model chance67.2%EV+35.6%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 03:36: under 13.5 at 2.00 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots · Bahia total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 16.5Actual: 16−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0011 Oct, 10:47

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 64.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.56
Expected value at recommendation: +29.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 64.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.56. Expected value at recommendation: +29.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 16.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance64.5%EV+29.0%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 16.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.8%EV-8.8%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 16.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.8%EV-3.0%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 16.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.8%EV-10.4%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 16.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.71
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.8%EV-14.9%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 16.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.55
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.8%EV-22.9%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 10:47: over 16.5 at 2.00 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 14:32. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Mirassol total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 11.5Actual: 10−1.00u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8811 Oct, 03:09

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 63.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.59
Expected value at recommendation: +18.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 63.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.59. Expected value at recommendation: +18.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 11.5
At recommendation1.88
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance63.3%EV+18.9%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance63.8%EV+21.3%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance63.8%EV+11.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance63.8%EV+8.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance63.8%EV+11.7%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.92
No saved recommendation
Model chance63.8%EV+22.5%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 03:09: over 11.5 at 1.88 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 9.5Actual: 4−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9010 Oct, 01:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 56.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.77
Expected value at recommendation: +7.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.77. Expected value at recommendation: +7.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

CrocobetAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance58.3%EV+13.8%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.8%EV+7.8%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.0%EV+25.2%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance61.0%EV+25.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 01:51: over 9.5 at 1.90 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Bahia total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 5.5Actual: 2−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0010 Oct, 01:22

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 60.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.67
Expected value at recommendation: +20.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 60.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.67. Expected value at recommendation: +20.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 5.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance60.1%EV+20.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.4%EV-1.1%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.4%EV-1.1%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.81
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.4%EV-3.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.4%EV-1.1%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 5.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.71
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.4%EV-8.6%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 01:22: over 5.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−78.9%ROI · 9 units staked

Profit−7.10units

W / L1 / 8picks

Avg odds1.94settled picks

Recorded picks91 matches

Around this match

CompetitionBrasileirão Série A Home teamBahia Away teamMirassol RefereeAbel, Ramon Abatti

Match overview

Matches

Cards · match total

Cards · Mirassol total

Corners · match total

Fouls · match total

Fouls · Mirassol total

Shots · Bahia total

Shots · Mirassol total

Shots on target · match total

Shots on target · Bahia total

This match

Around this match

Previous meetings

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