Azerbaijan vs Lithuania 1-0 — UEFA Nations League

UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League 26/27

Azerbaijan

1–0

HT 1–0

Lithuania

Sun 4 Oct·07:00·Matchday 4·Neftçi Arena·Azerbaijan won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

2Corners5
3Cards3
13Shots13
7Shots on target3
14Fouls9
19Throw-ins38
1Offsides1
7Goal kicks8
3Saves6
26Tackles19
15Interceptions15
8Dribbles9

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta · Virtual simulation

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

Independence, method & limitations

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Board

Matches

1 match

07:00

Azerbaijanv

LithuaniaUEFA Nations League5 won / 7 lost · −1.60u · 12 picks

Cards · Azerbaijan total

Open match →FreeLost

under 2.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.874 Oct, 06:05

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

LiderbetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 2.5
At recommendation1.80
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 2.5
At recommendation1.87
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.6%EV-9.6%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.6%EV-9.6%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 06:05: under 2.5 at 1.87 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Cards · Lithuania total

Open match →FreeLost

under 2.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.954 Oct, 06:05

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 2.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.0%EV+1.7%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.0%EV+1.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.0%EV+4.5%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 06:05: under 2.5 at 1.95 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Goal kicks · match total

Open match →FreeWon

over 14.5Actual: 15+1.05u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.054 Oct, 06:05

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 14.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance29.7%EV-46.5%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 14.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance29.7%EV-45.0%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 06:05: over 14.5 at 2.05 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Goal kicks · Azerbaijan total

Open match →FreeLost

over 7.5Actual: 7−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.354 Oct, 06:05

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveOriginal model estimate unavailableover 7.5
At recommendation2.25
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetOriginal model estimate unavailableover 7.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Liderbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 7.5
At recommendation2.35
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 06:05: over 7.5 at 2.35 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Offsides · Lithuania total

Open match →FreeLost

over 1.5Actual: 1−1.00u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.454 Oct, 06:05

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveOriginal model estimate unavailableover 1.5
At recommendation2.40
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Crocobetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 1.5
At recommendation2.45
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetOriginal model estimate unavailableover 1.5
At recommendation2.45
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 06:05: over 1.5 at 2.45 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Saves · Azerbaijan total

Open match →FreeWon

over 2.5Actual: 3+0.95u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.954 Oct, 06:05

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 2.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 06:05: over 2.5 at 1.95 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPWon

over 21.5Actual: 26+1.10u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.104 Oct, 06:07

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveArchived model estimateover 21.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.7%EV+12.2%
13 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Crocobetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 21.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetOriginal model estimate unavailableover 21.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 06:07: over 21.5 at 2.10 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots · Azerbaijan total

Open match →FreeLost

under 9.5Actual: 13−1.00u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.954 Oct, 06:34

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 9.5
At recommendation2.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Crocobetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 9.5
At recommendation2.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 06:34: under 9.5 at 2.95 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots · Lithuania total

Open match →VIPWon

over 9.5Actual: 13+1.45u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.454 Oct, 06:07

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveOriginal model estimate unavailableover 9.5
At recommendation2.40
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Crocobetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableover 9.5
At recommendation2.45
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetArchived model estimateover 9.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance77.1%EV+46.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 06:07: over 9.5 at 2.45 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreeLost

under 7.5Actual: 10−1.00u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.104 Oct, 06:05

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 7.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 7.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.9%EV+7.0%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 06:05: under 7.5 at 2.10 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots on target · Azerbaijan total

Open match →FreeLost

under 3.5Actual: 7−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.354 Oct, 06:05

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 3.5
At recommendation2.25
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 3.5
At recommendation2.30
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Liderbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 3.5
At recommendation2.35
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 06:05: under 3.5 at 2.35 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Throw-ins · Azerbaijan total

Open match →VIPWon

under 21.5Actual: 19+0.85u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.854 Oct, 04:38

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: —
Break-even odds: —
Expected value at recommendation: —

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

The original model estimate was not retained. The result uses the recorded line and odds.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 21.5
At recommendation1.80
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
12 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 21.5
At recommendation1.80
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Liderbetresult priceOriginal model estimate unavailableunder 21.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance—EV—
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 4 Oct, 04:38: under 21.5 at 1.85 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−13.3%ROI · 12 units staked

Profit−1.60units

W / L5 / 7picks

Avg odds2.20settled picks

Recorded picks121 matches

Around this match

CompetitionUEFA Nations League Home teamAzerbaijan Away teamLithuania RefereeCorreia, Gustavo

Previous meetings

Sun 27 SepLithuania 1-1 Azerbaijan