Atalanta vs Pafos FC 3-1 — UEFA Conference League

UEFA Conference LeagueUEFA Conference League 26/27

Atalanta

3–1

Pafos FC

Thu 15 Oct·13:00·Matchday 1·Gewiss Stadium·Atalanta won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

6Corners2
0Cards0
20Shots8
7Shots on target5
13Fouls11
23Throw-ins12
2Offsides0
4Goal kicks9
4Saves4
7Tackles10
8Interceptions13
6Dribbles6

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

0Free available0VIP available1Recorded Free1Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

13:00AtalantavPafos FCUEFA Conference League1 won / 1 lost · +0.30u · 2 picks

Fouls · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 22.5Actual: 24−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9015 Oct, 05:24

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 53.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.87
Expected value at recommendation: +1.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 53.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.87. Expected value at recommendation: +1.6%.

At recommendation, Superbet’s overall market record had 241 settled picksand +8.3% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 22.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.5%EV+1.6%
BetliveClosing estimateunder 22.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.8%EV+18.6%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 22.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.8%EV+27.3%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 22.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.8%EV+33.0%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 05:24: under 22.5 at 1.90 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Fouls · Pafos FC total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 11.5Actual: 11+1.30u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.3015 Oct, 03:24

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 55.6%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.80
Expected value at recommendation: +27.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 55.6% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.80. Expected value at recommendation: +27.9%.

At recommendation, Liderbet’s overall market record had 241 settled picksand +11.1% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 11.5
At recommendation2.30
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.6%EV+27.9%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.1%EV+29.2%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 11.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.20
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.1%EV+32.2%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 15 Oct, 03:24: under 11.5 at 2.30 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return+15.0%ROI · 2 units staked

Profit+0.30units

W / L1 / 1picks

Avg odds2.10settled picks

Recorded picks21 matches

Around this match

CompetitionUEFA Conference League Home teamAtalanta Away teamPafos FC RefereeAdam Ladeback