Aston Villa vs Brentford 2-2 — Premier League

Premier LeaguePremier League 26/27

Aston Villa

2–2

HT 1–1

Brentford

Sat 10 Oct·08:00·Matchday 6·Villa Park·Drawn

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

2Corners2
2Cards5
20Shots14
7Shots on target4
7Fouls24
14Throw-ins22
1Offsides1
12Goal kicks7
3Saves5
16Tackles20
4Interceptions8
4Dribbles6

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

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We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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0Free available0VIP available4Recorded Free2Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

08:00Aston VillavBrentfordPremier League5 won / 1 lost · +4.50u · 6 picks

Cards · Aston Villa total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 1.5Actual: 2+0.95u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.957 Oct, 10:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 56.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.78
Expected value at recommendation: +9.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.78. Expected value at recommendation: +9.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

CrocobetAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.4%EV+7.2%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.2%EV+9.6%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.4%EV+5.2%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.81
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.4%EV+0.2%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 1.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance55.4%EV-3.1%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: over 1.5 at 1.95 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 9.5Actual: 4+0.98u on one unit

BetMGM UKrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.988 Oct, 04:34

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 52.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.90
Expected value at recommendation: +4.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 52.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.90. Expected value at recommendation: +4.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationunder 9.5
At recommendation1.98
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance52.7%EV+4.4%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiAt recommendationunder 9.5
At recommendation1.98
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance52.7%EV+4.4%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerAt recommendationunder 9.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance52.7%EV+2.8%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.9%EV+5.1%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.9%EV+5.1%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.9%EV+5.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.9%EV+10.5%
16 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:34: under 9.5 at 1.98 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Aston Villa total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 2+1.30u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.309 Oct, 09:34

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.99
Expected value at recommendation: +15.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.99. Expected value at recommendation: +15.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.30
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.3%EV+15.8%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.2%EV+15.4%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.30
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.2%EV+15.4%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.06
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.2%EV+3.3%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.25
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.2%EV+12.9%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.22
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.2%EV+11.4%
11 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 09:34: under 4.5 at 2.30 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 14:47. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 27.5Actual: 34+1.07u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.077 Oct, 10:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 55.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.80
Expected value at recommendation: +15.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.80. Expected value at recommendation: +15.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365Closing estimateover 27.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.6%EV+5.6%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiAt recommendationover 27.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.3%EV-1.4%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 27.5
At recommendation2.07
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.7%EV+15.2%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 27.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.6%EV+12.4%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 27.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.6%EV+0.9%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 27.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.6%EV+0.9%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 10:51: over 27.5 at 2.07 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 10 Oct, 01:19. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Brentford total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 13.5Actual: 14+1.20u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.208 Oct, 04:36

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 58.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.73
Expected value at recommendation: +27.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 58.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.73. Expected value at recommendation: +27.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365Closing estimateover 13.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.5%EV+19.4%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Kambiresult priceAt recommendationover 13.5
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance58.0%EV+27.5%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 13.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.93
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.5%EV+20.7%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 13.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.5%EV+25.1%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 13.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.5%EV+12.6%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 13.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.5%EV+12.6%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 13.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.07
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.5%EV+29.5%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:36: over 13.5 at 2.20 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 17:51. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Aston Villa total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 7−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.918 Oct, 04:34

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 55.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.81
Expected value at recommendation: +5.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.81. Expected value at recommendation: +5.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.3%EV+5.6%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.91
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.3%EV+5.7%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.9%EV-2.9%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.9%EV-5.6%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.9%EV-5.6%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.85
No saved recommendation
Model chance53.9%EV-0.2%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:34: under 4.5 at 1.91 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return+75.0%ROI · 6 units staked

Profit+4.50units

W / L5 / 1picks

Avg odds2.07settled picks

Recorded picks61 matches

Around this match

CompetitionPremier League Home teamAston Villa Away teamBrentford RefereeCraig Pawson

Match overview

Matches

Cards · Aston Villa total

Corners · match total

Corners · Aston Villa total

Shots · match total

Shots · Brentford total

Shots on target · Aston Villa total

This match

Around this match

Previous meetings

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