Arsenal vs Lille 3-0 — UEFA Champions League

UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 26/27

Arsenal

3–0

HT 0–0

Lille

Tue 13 Oct·13:00·Matchday 2·Emirates Stadium, London·Arsenal won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

7Corners0
2Cards1
16Shots4
8Shots on target0
13Fouls9
19Throw-ins13
4Offsides3
1Goal kicks8
0Saves5
16Tackles18
6Interceptions8
10Dribbles3

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

13:00ArsenalvLilleUEFA Champions League4 won / 7 lost · −2.81u · 11 picks

Corners · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 9.5Actual: 7+1.23u on one unit

BetMGM UKrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.2312 Oct, 06:06

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 53.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.89
Expected value at recommendation: +18.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.89. Expected value at recommendation: +18.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationunder 9.5
At recommendation2.23
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.0%EV+18.3%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.3%EV-7.7%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.3%EV-10.2%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.3%EV-10.2%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.67
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.3%EV-14.3%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.3%EV-10.2%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Paddy PowerClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.3%EV-11.4%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance51.3%EV-7.7%
16 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 06:06: under 9.5 at 2.23 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 06:18. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 22.5Actual: 22+0.88u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8812 Oct, 00:06

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 55.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.80
Expected value at recommendation: +4.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 55.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.80. Expected value at recommendation: +4.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 22.5
At recommendation1.88
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance55.8%EV+4.8%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateunder 22.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.8%EV+24.6%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 22.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.8%EV+21.6%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 22.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance60.8%EV+24.6%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 00:06: under 22.5 at 1.88 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 02:41. The original pick remains in the results.

Goal kicks · Arsenal total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 1+1.10u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.1012 Oct, 06:36

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 60.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.67
Expected value at recommendation: +26.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 60.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.67. Expected value at recommendation: +26.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetliveAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance61.2%EV+22.3%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.20
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance61.9%EV+36.1%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance60.1%EV+26.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.69
No saved recommendation
Model chance62.8%EV+6.2%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 06:36: under 4.5 at 2.10 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 11:12. The original pick remains in the results.

Goals · Lille total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 0.5Actual: 0−1.00u on one unit

BetMGM UKrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0011 Oct, 06:36

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.97
Expected value at recommendation: +1.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.97. Expected value at recommendation: +1.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationover 0.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.9%EV+1.9%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 0.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.1%EV+0.3%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 0.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.1%EV+2.8%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 0.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.1%EV+2.8%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 0.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.1%EV+2.8%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 0.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.12
No saved recommendation
Model chance50.1%EV+6.3%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 11 Oct, 06:36: over 0.5 at 2.00 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 02:41. The original pick remains in the results.

Offsides · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 3.5Actual: 7−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.8513 Oct, 10:15

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 69.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.44
Expected value at recommendation: +28.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 69.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.44. Expected value at recommendation: +28.9%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 55 settled picksand +13.5% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Betliveresult priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance69.7%EV+28.9%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance69.4%EV+21.5%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance69.4%EV+25.0%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 10:15: under 3.5 at 1.85 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 25.5Actual: 20−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0012 Oct, 03:36

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 76.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.32
Expected value at recommendation: +51.9%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 76.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.32. Expected value at recommendation: +51.9%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

KambiAt recommendationover 25.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance64.9%EV+23.3%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 25.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance76.0%EV+51.9%
10 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 25.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance64.9%EV+16.8%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 25.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance64.9%EV+13.6%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 25.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance64.9%EV+13.6%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 03:36: over 25.5 at 2.00 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Shots · Arsenal total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 20.5Actual: 16−1.00u on one unit

Crocobetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.9512 Oct, 09:06

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.85
Expected value at recommendation: +60.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.85. Expected value at recommendation: +60.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Crocobetresult priceAt recommendationover 20.5
At recommendation2.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.3%EV+60.1%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 20.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds3.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance—EV—
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 09:06: over 20.5 at 2.95 with Crocobet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 12:32. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · Lille total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 7.5Actual: 4−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0012 Oct, 00:06

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.95
Expected value at recommendation: +3.0%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.95. Expected value at recommendation: +3.0%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 7.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.5%EV+3.0%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetMGM UKClosing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.97
No saved recommendation
Model chance38.3%EV-24.5%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance38.3%EV-31.0%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance38.3%EV-34.8%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.97
No saved recommendation
Model chance38.3%EV-24.5%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance38.3%EV-34.8%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 7.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.15
No saved recommendation
Model chance38.3%EV-17.6%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 00:06: over 7.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 02:41. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 9.5Actual: 8−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.2712 Oct, 06:02

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 52.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.92
Expected value at recommendation: +18.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 52.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.92. Expected value at recommendation: +18.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

CrocobetAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance56.2%EV+12.5%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance58.8%EV+26.5%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationover 9.5
At recommendation2.27
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance52.1%EV+18.4%
9 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.05
No saved recommendation
Model chance58.8%EV+20.6%
4 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 9.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance58.8%EV+17.7%
8 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 06:02: over 9.5 at 2.27 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 06:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Arsenal total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 6.5Actual: 8+0.98u on one unit

BetMGM UKrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9810 Oct, 01:22

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 59.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.68
Expected value at recommendation: +18.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 59.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.68. Expected value at recommendation: +18.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationover 6.5
At recommendation1.98
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance59.7%EV+18.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Bet365Closing estimateover 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance65.0%EV+17.0%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
BetliveClosing estimateover 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance65.0%EV+17.0%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance65.0%EV+17.0%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.84
No saved recommendation
Model chance65.0%EV+19.6%
5 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance65.0%EV+13.7%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 6.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.97
No saved recommendation
Model chance65.0%EV+28.0%
7 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 10 Oct, 01:22: over 6.5 at 1.98 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 11 Oct, 00:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Lille total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 2.5Actual: 0−1.00u on one unit

Betliverecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.0513 Oct, 11:29

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.5%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.99
Expected value at recommendation: +3.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: The model estimates positive value at this price and the recorded bookmaker benchmark qualified this market.

Model chance at recommendation 50.5% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.99. Expected value at recommendation: +3.5%.

At recommendation, Betlive’s overall market record had 33 settled picksand +2.9% return. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365At recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation2.38
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.5%EV+19.9%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
Betliveresult priceAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.5%EV+3.5%
2 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
CrocobetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.0%EV-2.0%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
KambiClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.48
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.0%EV+21.6%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
LiderbetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.90
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.0%EV-6.9%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison
SuperbetClosing estimateover 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.32
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.0%EV+13.7%
6 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 13 Oct, 11:29: over 2.5 at 2.05 with Betlive. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Stopped being recommended 13 Oct, 11:48. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−25.6%ROI · 11 units staked

Profit−2.81units

W / L4 / 7picks

Avg odds2.12settled picks

Recorded picks111 matches

Around this match

CompetitionUEFA Champions League Home teamArsenal Away teamLille RefereeFelix Zwayer

Match overview

Matches

Corners · match total

Fouls · match total

Goal kicks · Arsenal total

Goals · Lille total

Offsides · match total

Shots · match total

Shots · Arsenal total

Shots · Lille total

Shots on target · match total

Shots on target · Arsenal total

Shots on target · Lille total

This match

Around this match

On this page

This category

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