Aldosivi vs Sarmiento 1-3 — Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Liga Profesional de FútbolPrimera LPF 2026

Aldosivi

1–3

HT 1–1

Sarmiento

Fri 9 Oct·11:30·Matchday 12·Estadio Jose Maria Minella·Sarmiento won

Match overview

12 priority stats · full time

6Corners1
5Cards3
14Shots14
4Shots on target3
17Fouls15
19Throw-ins16
1Offsides0
9Goal kicks10
0Saves3
19Tackles16
8Interceptions5
2Dribbles4

OddsOdds StatsStats PredictionsPicks RefereeReferee CoachCoach

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

StatsGem is independent. We are not a bookmaker, gambling operator, betting broker or bookmaker affiliate. We accept no bets or gambling deposits, hold no player funds and offer no cash prizes or withdrawals. Subscriptions pay for research access. Bookmaker names and logos identify data sources; they do not imply a partnership or endorsement.

Simulated performance does not predict real-world profit. Models can be wrong, odds can change, and historical results can overstate an apparent advantage. Gambling can cause financial harm and addiction. Get support

0Free available0VIP available8Recorded Free1Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

Board

Matches

1 match

11:30AldosivivSarmientoLiga Profesional de Fútbol3 won / 6 lost · −2.95u · 9 picks

Cards · Aldosivi total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 2.5Actual: 5−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.879 Oct, 02:42

Closing odds1.909 Oct, 08:45

Odds up+0.03

Model chance at recommendation: 57.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.75
Expected value at recommendation: +7.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 57.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.75. Expected value at recommendation: +7.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

CrocobetAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation1.80
Closing odds1.80
Unchanged
Model chance57.8%EV+4.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 04:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds3.10Closing chance estimate31.0%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 04:02
- under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate57.2%Closing EV estimate+2.9%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 04:02
- under 3.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate78.0%Closing EV estimate+1.4%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 04:02
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation1.87
Closing odds1.90
Odds up+0.03
Model chance57.4%EV+7.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 08:45
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 0.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate9.1%Closing EV estimate−89.9%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 02:36
- under 2.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate57.2%Closing EV estimate+8.6%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 08:45
BetliveClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.2%EV+0.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 05:30
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate57.2%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 05:30
- under 3.5odds1.30Closing chance estimate78.0%Closing EV estimate+1.4%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 05:30
KambiClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.62
No saved recommendation
Model chance57.2%EV-7.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 04:09
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.62Closing chance estimate57.2%Closing EV estimate−7.4%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 04:09

Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 02:42: under 2.5 at 1.87 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Cards · Sarmiento total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 2.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.857 Oct, 13:42

Closing odds2.109 Oct, 08:45

Odds up+0.25

Model chance at recommendation: 54.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.85
Expected value at recommendation: +0.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.85. Expected value at recommendation: +0.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

KambiAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation1.94
Closing odds1.91
Odds down−0.03
Model chance54.1%EV+5.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 04:09
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds1.91Closing chance estimate47.7%Closing EV estimate−8.9%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 04:09
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 2.5
At recommendation1.85
Closing odds2.10
Odds up+0.25
Model chance54.1%EV+0.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 08:45
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 0.5odds1.11Closing chance estimate6.3%Closing EV estimate−93.0%margin9.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 02:36
- under 2.5odds2.10Closing chance estimate47.7%Closing EV estimate+0.2%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 08:45
BetliveClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.95
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.7%EV-7.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 05:30
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate47.7%Closing EV estimate−7.0%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 05:30
- under 3.5odds1.37Closing chance estimate69.9%Closing EV estimate−4.2%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 05:30
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 2.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds2.00
No saved recommendation
Model chance47.7%EV-4.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 04:02
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds3.70Closing chance estimate23.7%Closing EV estimate−12.5%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 04:02
- under 2.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.00Closing chance estimate47.7%Closing EV estimate−4.6%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 04:02
- under 3.5odds1.40Closing chance estimate69.9%Closing EV estimate−2.1%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 04:02

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 13:42: under 2.5 at 1.85 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 10:49. The original pick remains in the results.

Corners · Sarmiento total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 3.5Actual: 1−1.00u on one unit

BetMGM UKrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.897 Oct, 11:47

Closing odds1.789 Oct, 11:05

Odds down−0.11

Model chance at recommendation: 60.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.67
Expected value at recommendation: +13.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 60.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.67. Expected value at recommendation: +13.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

BetMGM UKresult priceAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation1.89
Closing odds1.78
Odds down−0.11
Model chance60.0%EV+13.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 11:05
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5odds1.78Closing chance estimate56.9%Closing EV estimate+1.4%margin8.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 11:05
KambiAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation1.89
Closing odds1.79
Odds down−0.10
Model chance60.0%EV+13.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 04:09
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate76.0%Closing EV estimate+3.4%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 04:09
- over 3.5odds1.79Closing chance estimate56.9%Closing EV estimate+1.9%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 04:09
- over 4.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate37.9%Closing EV estimate−5.2%margin9.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 04:09
- over 5.5odds2.65Closing chance estimate22.5%Closing EV estimate−40.3%margin9.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 4 Oct, 02:57
Bet365Closing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.73
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.9%EV-1.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 10:15
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.73Closing chance estimate56.9%Closing EV estimate−1.7%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 10:15
BetliveClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.47
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.9%EV-16.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 01:00
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.5odds1.15Closing chance estimate76.0%Closing EV estimate−12.6%margin12.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 00:30
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.47Closing chance estimate56.9%Closing EV estimate−16.3%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 01:00
- over 4.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate37.9%Closing EV estimate−22.3%margin11.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 01:00
- over 5.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate22.5%Closing EV estimate−31.3%margin12.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 01:00
- over 6.5odds5.00Closing chance estimate12.0%Closing EV estimate−39.8%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 00:30
CrocobetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.45
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.9%EV-17.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 00:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.5odds1.28Closing chance estimate76.0%Closing EV estimate−2.7%margin13.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 8 Oct, 04:39
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimate56.9%Closing EV estimate−17.4%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 00:32
- over 4.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate37.9%Closing EV estimate−24.2%margin14.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 00:32
- over 5.5odds2.95Closing chance estimate22.5%Closing EV estimate−33.6%margin13.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 00:32
LiderbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.45
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.9%EV-17.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 11:07
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 2.5odds1.13Closing chance estimate76.0%Closing EV estimate−14.1%margin12.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 00:33
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimate56.9%Closing EV estimate−17.4%margin12.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 00:33
- over 4.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate37.9%Closing EV estimate−22.3%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 00:33
- over 5.5odds3.20Closing chance estimate22.5%Closing EV estimate−27.9%margin13.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 00:33
- over 6.5odds5.50Closing chance estimate12.0%Closing EV estimate−33.8%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 11:07
SuperbetClosing estimateover 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.72
No saved recommendation
Model chance56.9%EV-2.1%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 06:37
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.01Closing chance estimate98.1%Closing EV estimate−1.0%margin5.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 7 Oct, 10:34
- over 1.5odds1.10Closing chance estimate90.6%Closing EV estimate−0.4%margin8.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 06:37
- over 2.5odds1.33Closing chance estimate76.0%Closing EV estimate+1.1%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 06:37
- over 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.72Closing chance estimate56.9%Closing EV estimate−2.1%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 06:37
- over 4.5odds2.37Closing chance estimate37.9%Closing EV estimate−10.2%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 06:37
- over 5.5odds3.45Closing chance estimate22.5%Closing EV estimate−22.3%margin7.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 06:37
- over 6.5odds5.10Closing chance estimate12.0%Closing EV estimate−38.6%margin8.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 06:37

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 11:47: over 3.5 at 1.89 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 24.5Actual: 32−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.978 Oct, 04:48

Closing odds1.908 Oct, 06:02

Odds down−0.07

Model chance at recommendation: 61.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.64
Expected value at recommendation: +20.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 61.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.64. Expected value at recommendation: +20.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

LiderbetAt recommendationunder 24.5
At recommendation1.80
Closing odds1.80
Unchanged
Model chance67.8%EV+22.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 01:03
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 24.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate68.6%Closing EV estimate+23.5%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 01:03
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 24.5
At recommendation1.97
Closing odds1.90
Odds down−0.07
Model chance61.2%EV+20.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 08:45
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 24.5odds1.90Closing chance estimate68.6%Closing EV estimate+30.4%margin12.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 8 Oct, 06:02
- under 25.5odds1.73Closing chance estimate75.3%Closing EV estimate+30.3%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 08:45

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:48: under 24.5 at 1.97 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 23:51. The original pick remains in the results.

Fouls · Aldosivi total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

under 12.5Actual: 17−1.00u on one unit

Superbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.958 Oct, 04:48

Closing odds2.059 Oct, 09:38

Odds up+0.10

Model chance at recommendation: 67.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.49
Expected value at recommendation: +31.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 67.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.49. Expected value at recommendation: +31.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

LiderbetClosing estimateunder 12.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.80
No saved recommendation
Model chance72.4%EV+30.3%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 01:03
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 11.5odds2.25Closing chance estimate62.0%Closing EV estimate+39.4%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 01:03
- under 12.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.80Closing chance estimate72.4%Closing EV estimate+30.3%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 01:03
- under 13.5odds1.55Closing chance estimate81.0%Closing EV estimate+25.5%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 01:03
Superbetresult priceAt recommendationunder 12.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds2.05
Odds up+0.10
Model chance67.4%EV+31.5%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 09:38
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 12.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate72.4%Closing EV estimate+48.4%margin7.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 09:38

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:48: under 12.5 at 1.95 with Superbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Offsides · Aldosivi total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 1.5Actual: 1−1.00u on one unit

Liderbetrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.059 Oct, 01:06

Closing odds2.059 Oct, 01:03

Unchanged

Model chance at recommendation: 50.8%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.97
Expected value at recommendation: +4.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.8% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.97. Expected value at recommendation: +4.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

CrocobetAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds2.10
Unchanged
Model chance51.1%EV+7.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 03:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 0.5odds1.22Closing chance estimate82.0%Closing EV estimate+0.1%margin14.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 03:32
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.10Closing chance estimate51.2%Closing EV estimate+7.4%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 03:32
- over 2.5odds4.00Closing chance estimate24.7%Closing EV estimate−1.3%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 03:32
Liderbetresult priceAt recommendationover 1.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds2.05
Unchanged
Model chance50.8%EV+4.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 01:03
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 1.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds2.05Closing chance estimate51.2%Closing EV estimate+4.9%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 01:03

Recommendation record

Recorded 9 Oct, 01:06: over 1.5 at 2.05 with Liderbet. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 04:26. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 25.5Actual: 28+1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.008 Oct, 04:48

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 52.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.93
Expected value at recommendation: +4.1%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 52.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.93. Expected value at recommendation: +4.1%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Bet365result priceAt recommendationover 25.5
At recommendation2.00
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance52.0%EV+4.1%
LiderbetClosing estimateover 25.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.45
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.7%EV-20.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 01:03
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 25.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.45Closing chance estimate54.7%Closing EV estimate−20.7%margin13.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 01:03
- over 26.5odds1.65Closing chance estimate47.8%Closing EV estimate−21.1%margin14.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 01:03
- over 27.5odds1.80Closing chance estimate41.1%Closing EV estimate−26.0%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 01:03
- over 28.5odds2.05Closing chance estimate34.7%Closing EV estimate−28.8%margin13.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 01:03
- over 29.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate28.8%Closing EV estimate−32.2%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 01:03
SuperbetClosing estimateover 25.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.50
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.7%EV-18.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 09:38
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- over 22.5odds1.19Closing chance estimate74.3%Closing EV estimate−11.5%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 00:06
- over 23.5odds1.26Closing chance estimate68.2%Closing EV estimate−14.1%margin7.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 09:38
- over 24.5odds1.36Closing chance estimate61.5%Closing EV estimate−16.3%margin8.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 09:38
- over 25.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.50Closing chance estimate54.7%Closing EV estimate−18.0%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 09:38
- over 26.5odds1.68Closing chance estimate47.8%Closing EV estimate−19.7%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 08:45
- over 27.5odds1.92Closing chance estimate41.1%Closing EV estimate−21.1%margin8.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 08:45
- over 28.5odds2.20Closing chance estimate34.7%Closing EV estimate−23.6%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 03:35
- over 29.5odds2.55Closing chance estimate28.8%Closing EV estimate−26.4%margin9.6%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 08:45
- over 30.5odds3.00Closing chance estimate23.6%Closing EV estimate−29.3%margin10.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 08:45
- over 31.5odds3.55Closing chance estimate18.9%Closing EV estimate−32.9%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 08:45

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 04:48: over 25.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 11:11. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Aldosivi total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 4.5Actual: 4+0.90u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.907 Oct, 11:47

Closing odds2.029 Oct, 04:09

Odds up+0.12

Model chance at recommendation: 56.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.79
Expected value at recommendation: +6.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 56.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.79. Expected value at recommendation: +6.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.90
Closing odds2.02
Odds up+0.12
Model chance56.1%EV+6.6%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 04:09
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate36.1%Closing EV estimate+10.2%margin11.5%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 04:09
- under 4.5odds2.02Closing chance estimate54.8%Closing EV estimate+10.7%margin10.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 04:09
- under 5.5odds1.50Closing chance estimate71.2%Closing EV estimate+6.9%margin11.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 04:09
SuperbetAt recommendationunder 4.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds1.95
Unchanged
Model chance55.0%EV+7.2%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 08:45
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 1.5odds9.10Closing chance estimate7.0%Closing EV estimate−36.4%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 08:45
- under 2.5odds4.70Closing chance estimate19.0%Closing EV estimate−10.8%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 08:45
- under 3.5odds2.80Closing chance estimate36.1%Closing EV estimate+1.1%margin10.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 08:45
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.95Closing chance estimate54.8%Closing EV estimate+6.8%margin7.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 08:45
- under 5.5odds1.46Closing chance estimate71.2%Closing EV estimate+4.0%margin9.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 08:45
- under 6.5odds1.21Closing chance estimate83.5%Closing EV estimate+1.0%margin11.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 00:06
- under 7.5odds1.09Closing chance estimate91.3%Closing EV estimate−0.4%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 00:06
Bet365Closing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.83
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.8%EV+0.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 09:50
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.83Closing chance estimate54.8%Closing EV estimate+0.4%margin9.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 09:50
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.8%EV-6.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 03:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds2.50Closing chance estimate36.1%Closing EV estimate−9.7%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 03:32
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate54.8%Closing EV estimate−6.9%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 03:32
- under 5.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate71.2%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 03:32
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 4.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.70
No saved recommendation
Model chance54.8%EV-6.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 01:03
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds2.35Closing chance estimate36.1%Closing EV estimate−15.1%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 01:03
- under 4.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.70Closing chance estimate54.8%Closing EV estimate−6.9%margin14.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 01:03
- under 5.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate71.2%Closing EV estimate−3.8%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 01:03

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 11:47: under 4.5 at 1.90 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Shots on target · Sarmiento total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

under 3.5Actual: 3+1.15u on one unit

Kambirecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.157 Oct, 11:51

Closing odds2.009 Oct, 04:09

Odds down−0.15

Model chance at recommendation: 54.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.85
Expected value at recommendation: +16.4%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.85. Expected value at recommendation: +16.4%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Kambiresult priceAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation2.15
Closing odds2.00
Odds down−0.15
Model chance54.1%EV+16.4%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 04:09
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5odds2.00Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate−0.5%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 04:09
- under 4.5odds1.46Closing chance estimate68.6%Closing EV estimate+0.2%margin11.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 04:09
SuperbetAt recommendationunder 3.5
At recommendation1.97
Closing odds1.97
Unchanged
Model chance54.1%EV+6.7%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 08:45
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 0.5odds14.00Closing chance estimate2.7%Closing EV estimate−62.3%margin—Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 00:06
- under 1.5odds5.75Closing chance estimate12.2%Closing EV estimate−29.8%margin10.8%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 08:45
- under 2.5odds3.05Closing chance estimate29.2%Closing EV estimate−10.9%margin10.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 8 Oct, 04:40
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.97Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate−2.0%margin8.2%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 8 Oct, 04:40
- under 4.5odds1.44Closing chance estimate68.6%Closing EV estimate−1.2%margin9.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 8 Oct, 04:40
- under 5.5odds1.18Closing chance estimate82.6%Closing EV estimate−2.5%margin11.4%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 00:06
- under 6.5odds1.06Closing chance estimate91.3%Closing EV estimate−3.2%margin11.7%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 00:06
Bet365Closing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.91
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.8%EV-5.0%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 09:50
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.91Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate−5.0%margin7.9%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 09:50
CrocobetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.8%EV-12.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 03:32
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate29.2%Closing EV estimate−21.1%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 03:32
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate−12.9%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 03:32
- under 4.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate68.6%Closing EV estimate−7.4%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 03:32
LiderbetClosing estimateunder 3.5
At recommendation—
Closing odds1.75
No saved recommendation
Model chance49.8%EV-12.9%
Last captured before kickoffas of 9 Oct, 01:03
Closing estimates are a separate historical comparison and can differ from the model at recommendation. Results use the recorded pick.
lineoddsClosing chance estimateClosing EV estimatemarginevidence / captured
- under 2.5odds2.70Closing chance estimate29.2%Closing EV estimate−21.1%margin14.0%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 01:03
- under 3.5same line and odds · separate model estimateodds1.75Closing chance estimate49.8%Closing EV estimate−12.9%margin14.3%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 01:03
- under 4.5odds1.35Closing chance estimate68.6%Closing EV estimate−7.4%margin14.1%Unmeasured estimateCaptured 9 Oct, 01:03

Recommendation record

Recorded 7 Oct, 11:51: under 3.5 at 2.15 with Kambi. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 8 Oct, 05:28. The original pick remains in the results.

Predictions

This match

Recorded results

Return−32.8%ROI · 9 units staked

Profit−2.95units

W / L3 / 6picks

Avg odds1.96settled picks

Recorded picks91 matches

Around this match

CompetitionLiga Profesional de Fútbol Home teamAldosivi Away teamSarmiento RefereeLuis Lobo Medina

Match overview

Matches

Cards · Aldosivi total

Cards · Sarmiento total

Corners · Sarmiento total

Fouls · match total

Fouls · Aldosivi total

Offsides · Aldosivi total

Shots · match total

Shots on target · Aldosivi total

Shots on target · Sarmiento total

This match

Around this match

Previous meetings

On this page

This category

StatsGem

Bro VIP · Beta

Football intelligence, with your VIP.

What are we exploring, bro?