Pinnacle

Benchmark records and predictions from this bookmaker.

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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BenchmarksBenchmarks PredictionsPredictions

0Free available0VIP available7Recorded Free0Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

7 picks shown with Pinnacle prices. Results retain the original recorded line and odds.

Board

Matches

7 matches

04:15FC UtrechtvWillem II TilburgEredivisie1 won / 0 lost · +1.13u · 1 pick

Goals · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 3.5Actual: 4+1.13u on one unit

Pinnaclerecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.138 Oct, 10:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 58.4%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.72
Expected value at recommendation: +24.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 58.4% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.72. Expected value at recommendation: +24.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Pinnacleresult priceAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.13
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance58.4%EV+24.3%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 10:51: over 3.5 at 2.13 with Pinnacle. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

05:30Hertha BSCvSpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga0 won / 1 lost · −1.00u · 1 pick

Goals · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 3.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Pinnaclerecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.998 Oct, 10:42

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 53.0%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.89
Expected value at recommendation: +5.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.0% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.89. Expected value at recommendation: +5.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Pinnacleresult priceAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation1.99
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.0%EV+5.5%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 10:42: over 3.5 at 1.99 with Pinnacle. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

05:30FC St. PaulivKarlsruher SC2. Bundesliga0 won / 1 lost · −1.00u · 1 pick

Goals · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 3.5Actual: 2−1.00u on one unit

Pinnaclerecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.108 Oct, 10:42

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 50.7%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.98
Expected value at recommendation: +6.5%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 50.7% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.98. Expected value at recommendation: +6.5%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Pinnacleresult priceAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.10
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance50.7%EV+6.5%

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 10:42: over 3.5 at 2.10 with Pinnacle. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

06:00ElchevCelta VigoLaLiga0 won / 1 lost · −1.00u · 1 pick

Goals · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 2.5Actual: 0−1.00u on one unit

BetMGM UKrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.008 Oct, 10:51

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 57.2%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.75
Expected value at recommendation: +14.3%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 57.2% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.75. Expected value at recommendation: +14.3%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

The recorded result uses BetMGM UK at 2.00. The bookmaker prices below are comparisons.

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

PinnacleAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation2.09
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance57.2%EV+19.5%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 10:51: over 2.5 at 2.00 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

09:15PadovavCarrareseSerie B0 won / 1 lost · −1.00u · 1 pick

Goals · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 2.5Actual: 2−1.00u on one unit

BetMGM UKrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.928 Oct, 11:22

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 54.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.85
Expected value at recommendation: +4.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 54.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.85. Expected value at recommendation: +4.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

The recorded result uses BetMGM UK at 1.92. The bookmaker prices below are comparisons.

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

PinnacleAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation1.96
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance54.3%EV+6.4%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 11:22: over 2.5 at 1.92 with BetMGM UK. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

12:45CagliarivJuventusSerie A0 won / 1 lost · −1.00u · 1 pick

Goals · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 2.5Actual: 2−1.00u on one unit

Bet365recorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.008 Oct, 11:22

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.3%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.95
Expected value at recommendation: +2.6%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.3% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.95. Expected value at recommendation: +2.6%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

The recorded result uses Bet365 at 2.00. The bookmaker prices below are comparisons.

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

PinnacleAt recommendationover 2.5
At recommendation2.05
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.3%EV+5.1%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 11:22: over 2.5 at 2.00 with Bet365. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

17:00St.Louis CityvLA GalaxyMLS1 won / 0 lost · +1.01u · 1 pick

Goals · match total

Open match →FreePrevious modelWon

This recorded pick has a result.

over 3.5Actual: 8+1.01u on one unit

Pinnaclerecorded bookmaker

At recommendation2.018 Oct, 11:11

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 53.1%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.89
Expected value at recommendation: +6.8%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 53.1% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.89. Expected value at recommendation: +6.8%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Pinnacleresult priceAt recommendationover 3.5
At recommendation2.01
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance53.1%EV+6.8%
1 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 8 Oct, 11:11: over 3.5 at 2.01 with Pinnacle. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 9 Oct, 02:17. The original pick remains in the results.

Selected day

Sun, 11 Oct 2026

Recorded picks · Pinnacle

Return−40.9%ROI · 7 units staked

Profit−2.86units

W / L2 / 5picks

Avg odds2.02settled picks

Recorded picks77 matches

All dates

Overall results

42 settled picks

One unit per pick at its recorded odds. Earlier estimated history is excluded. Results: 8 Oct 2026 – 20 Oct 2026.

ROI+4.5%

Profit+1.87 u

W / L22 / 20

Avg odds2.02

Pinnacle

Matches

Goals · match total

Goals · match total

Goals · match total

Goals · match total

Goals · match total

Goals · match total

Goals · match total

Sun, 11 Oct 2026

Overall results

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