Paddy Power

Benchmark records and predictions from this bookmaker.

Public beta18+ · Virtual bankrolls · Independent research

Independence, method & limitations

We benchmark model probabilities against bookmakers and tune for simulated returns with virtual stakes and bankrolls. No real money is wagered or won. Simulated profits do not promise real returns.

An ongoing public-beta experiment comparing model probabilities with bookmaker-implied probabilities for football statistical outcomes. We tune and evaluate our models to improve simulated returns using virtual stakes and bankrolls. Recorded profit and loss are hypothetical; no real money is wagered or won here.

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BenchmarksBenchmarks PredictionsPredictions

0Free available0VIP available0Recorded Free1Recorded VIP

Available now includes eligible early Monitoring picks and confirmed picks. Monitoring uses the same selection as the bots; only confirmed publications enter recorded results.

1 pick shown with Paddy Power prices. Results retain the original recorded line and odds.

Board

Matches

1 match

16:30ChapecoensevAthleticoBrasileirão Série A0 won / 1 lost · −1.00u · 1 pick

Cards · match total

Open match →VIPPrevious modelLost

This recorded pick has a result.

over 4.5Actual: 3−1.00u on one unit

Paddy Powerrecorded bookmaker

At recommendation1.9512 Oct, 05:37

Closing odds—

No closing quote captured

Model chance at recommendation: 51.9%
Minimum qualifying odds: 1.93
Expected value at recommendation: +1.2%

Bookmaker prices and pick details

Why this suggestion: Recorded before kickoff at the suggested line and odds.

Model chance at recommendation 51.9% · Minimum qualifying odds 1.93. Expected value at recommendation: +1.2%.

The saved recommendation is kept unchanged. The benchmark link shows today’s record. View current benchmark

Bookmaker price options · Choose one. Different lines have different model chances.

Paddy Powerresult priceAt recommendationover 4.5
At recommendation1.95
Closing odds—
No closing quote captured
Model chance51.9%EV+1.2%
3 bookmaker lines available.
Open complete comparison

Recommendation record

Recorded 12 Oct, 05:37: over 4.5 at 1.95 with Paddy Power. Results use one unit at these saved terms.

Imported from older pre-match history. Some original model and benchmark details are unavailable.

Stopped being recommended 12 Oct, 06:06. The original pick remains in the results.

Selected day

Mon, 12 Oct 2026

Recorded picks · Paddy Power

Return−100.0%ROI · 1 unit staked

Profit−1.00units

W / L0 / 1picks

Avg odds1.95settled picks

Recorded picks11 matches

All dates

Overall results

94 settled picks

One unit per pick. Includes historical estimates at reference odds (42 settled). Display only; recorded performance and benchmarks exclude estimates. Recorded results: 4 Oct 2026 – 15 Oct 2026.

ROI−7.6%

Profit−7.15 u

W / L41 / 53

Avg odds2.23