Predictions
The 9 October board's current cells are replayed over results from 30 July through 9 October. Later results use each publication day's benchmark snapshot. Cards show where badagbet's walk-forward number disagrees with bookmaker prices. One card per match, one row per position, with the latest current offer or last pre-kickoff price — green while it pays, red once it does not.
Tue, 6 Oct 2026 · 23 positions on 15 matches across 5 bookmakers
How this board differs from Telegram
This board is one kickoff day (UTC−6), and green means the model still has any edge at a book's own line. The StatsGem VIP Picks bot answers /picks for the next 7 days, one section per kickoff day, and calls a position paying only at breakeven +10 %, so the two lists differ by design.
That day
settled positions23all with a result
won / lost6 / 17positions won / lost
avg odds2.17mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit−10.74units, one a position
ROI, the day−46.7%profit ÷ staked
One flat unit per cell and fixture, priced at each book's last pre-kickoff offer. EV and margin use the walk-forward model number for that line.
Showing 15 of 15 matches
A match stays visible when at least one position matches the selected filters.
South Koreav
UzbekistanInternational Friendly Games1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Shots · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 22.52.00+5.0%14.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Belarusv
FinlandUEFA Nations League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 27.51.90+5.5%11.5%lost −1.00first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
- Liderbetunder 27.51.80−0.1%12.7%lost −1.00first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Scotlandv
SloveniaUEFA Nations League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.26 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetunder 24.52.50+36.0%11.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.50 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
- Crocobetunder 24.52.30+25.2%12.4%lost −1.00first captured 2.30 → last pre-kickoff 2.30
- Betliveunder 24.52.15+17.0%13.2%lost −1.00first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 2.15
- Superbetunder 24.52.10+14.3%7.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.02 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
Englandv
CzechiaUEFA Nations League2 positions · 0 of 2 won · −2.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.98 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetunder 18.53.35+79.0%11.8%lost −1.00first captured 3.35 → last pre-kickoff 3.35
- Crocobetunder 18.53.30+76.3%12.3%lost −1.00first captured 3.30 → last pre-kickoff 3.30
- Betliveunder 18.53.10+65.6%12.3%lost −1.00first captured 3.10 → last pre-kickoff 3.10
- Superbetunder 21.52.15+58.4%7.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.12 → last pre-kickoff 2.15
Shots · home team · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Kambiover 20.51.85+1.6%13.6%lost −1.00first captured 1.65 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Estoniav
IcelandUEFA Nations League1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.12 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.12 avg → +1.12 · ROI +111.7%- Liderbetunder 24.52.35+25.1%14.0%won +1.35first captured 2.35 → last pre-kickoff 2.35
- Betliveunder 24.52.00+6.4%12.5%won +1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Crocobetunder 24.52.00+6.4%12.5%won +1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Moldovav
SlovakiaUEFA Nations League2 positions · 1 of 2 won · +0.08 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 23.51.85−1.1%11.2%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Shots · home team · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.08 avg → +1.08 · ROI +107.5%- Betliveover 8.52.35+38.2%12.0%won +1.35first captured 2.35 → last pre-kickoff 2.35
- Liderbetover 8.51.80+5.8%12.7%won +0.80first captured 2.40 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Luxembourgv
BulgariaUEFA Nations League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.30 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 26.52.35+20.5%12.0%lost −1.00first captured 2.35 → last pre-kickoff 2.35
- Crocobetunder 26.52.30+17.9%12.4%lost −1.00first captured 2.30 → last pre-kickoff 2.30
- Liderbetunder 26.52.25+15.4%11.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.25
Croatiav
SpainUEFA Nations League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.39 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 19.52.55+42.0%11.7%lost −1.00first captured 2.55 → last pre-kickoff 2.55
- Liderbetunder 19.52.55+42.0%12.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.55 → last pre-kickoff 2.55
- Crocobetunder 19.52.45+36.4%12.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Superbetunder 20.52.00+25.4%7.8%lost −1.00first captured 2.07 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Albaniav
San MarinoUEFA Nations League3 positions · 2 of 3 won · +1.40 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.02 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 24.52.10+53.9%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Betliveunder 24.52.05+50.2%13.3%lost −1.00first captured 2.05 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
- Liderbetunder 24.51.90+39.2%13.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Shots · match total · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → +0.90 · ROI +90.0%- Betliveover 24.51.95+40.1%11.9%won +0.95first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Crocobetover 24.51.95+40.1%11.9%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Liderbetover 24.51.80+29.3%12.7%won +0.80first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Shots · home team · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.50 avg → +1.50 · ROI +150.0%- Crocobetover 22.52.85+62.6%12.0%won +1.85first captured 2.85 → last pre-kickoff 2.85
- Betliveover 22.52.55+45.5%11.7%won +1.55first captured 2.55 → last pre-kickoff 2.55
- Liderbetover 21.52.10+34.1%12.1%won +1.10first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
Switzerlandv
North MacedoniaUEFA Nations League3 positions · 0 of 3 won · −3.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.18 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 23.52.25+70.8%12.0%lost −1.00first captured 2.25 → last pre-kickoff 2.25
- Crocobetunder 23.52.20+67.0%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
- Liderbetunder 23.52.10+59.4%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.30 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
Shots · match total · over
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.17 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetover 26.52.50+25.5%11.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.75 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
- Betliveover 26.52.00+0.4%12.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Crocobetover 26.52.00+0.4%12.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.65 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Shots · home team · over
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.13 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetover 20.52.30+25.1%12.4%lost −1.00first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.30
- Betliveover 20.52.10+14.2%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Crocobetover 20.52.00+8.8%12.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.75 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Argentinav
BeninInternational Friendly Games3 positions · 0 of 3 won · −3.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.27 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 20.52.80+60.8%13.8%lost −1.00first captured 2.80 → last pre-kickoff 2.80
- Liderbetunder 22.52.15+50.0%13.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.30 → last pre-kickoff 2.15
- Crocobetunder 23.51.85+38.9%14.7%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Shots · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.32 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 33.52.32+38.1%8.0%lost −1.00first captured 2.30 → last pre-kickoff 2.32
Shots · home team · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.65 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 28.52.65+71.1%8.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.62 → last pre-kickoff 2.65
Colombiav
PeruInternational Friendly Games1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.40 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 24.52.80+45.7%13.8%lost −1.00first captured 2.80 → last pre-kickoff 2.80
- Crocobetunder 26.52.00+26.6%14.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
USAv
CanadaInternational Friendly Games1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.15 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 24.52.50+61.9%14.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.50 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
- Crocobetunder 26.51.80+34.9%14.4%lost −1.00first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Chicago FirevVancouver WhitecapsMLS1 position · 1 of 1 won · +0.80 units
Fouls · match total · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.80 avg → +0.80 · ROI +80.0%- Crocobetunder 25.51.80−0.3%14.4%won +0.80first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Mexicov
ChileInternational Friendly Games1 position · 1 of 1 won · +0.87 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.87 avg → +0.87 · ROI +86.7%- Liderbetunder 24.51.95+8.4%11.9%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Crocobetunder 24.51.85+2.8%14.7%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
- Betliveunder 24.51.80+0.0%14.4%won +0.80first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Board record · all time
settled positions1,1349 October cells through 9 October; daily snapshots after
won / lost602 / 532positions won / lost
avg odds2.14mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+128.29units, one a position
measured ROI+11.3%1,134 settled positions in the board record · the calculator's r
How to read a card
- A card is a match, and it opens. The header carries the competition's badge and both crests — a national team shows its flag where a club wears a crest — beside the match's own record, so a closed board reads as a list of matches. Open one for every position on it and every book pricing it. Upcoming matches on StatsGem VIP Picks without a subscription show counts only: completed historical reads remain open, while upcoming prices and positions require access.
- A position is one market opinion — shots over the match total, corners under the away team, and so on. A match appears once per position.
- Every book that prices it is listed, each with its own line. Books sit on different rungs of the same ladder, so the line beside a book is the one that book is actually quoting. A book quoting more than one rung opens: its name is the control, and the whole ladder is inside — every threshold that book prices, each with its own price, EV, margin and verdict, and the rung the row above is showing marked. A book with a single price has nothing to open and stays flat.
- Green pays, red does not. A price is green while the model's number times that price is still above one; it turns red when the book shortens, when the price stops paying for the model's number, or when the model changes its mind. Historical rows show the last pre-kickoff offer; on a played day the row also shows the result at that line.
- EV is the model's claim, margin is the book's cut. EV is the model's probability times the price minus one — what a unit at that price is expected to return by the model's numbers. Margin is the book's overround on the market the price came from, because the same EV is a different offer at a 2 % cut and at a 9 % one.
- The historical replay starts on 30 July. Through 9 October, results use the cells on that day's StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks boards, applied to earlier fixtures; this does not claim those cells were published on each past date. From 10 October onward, completed results follow each date's benchmark snapshot. Rows reconstructed after kickoff remain included without a separate label. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks
Board membership follows one daily gate pipeline. A cell needs at least 30 settled matches, positive full-record return, a positive newest 30 %, and positive own-match returns over 14 and 30 days. Once every gate clears,StatsGem VIP Picks takes cells at +10 % or better; StatsGem Free Picks takes positive cells below +10 %. Candidates and failing cells remain visible on Benchmarks but are not on either board. The 9 October board cells are applied to results from 30 July through 9 October. Later completed results use the benchmark snapshot for their date. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
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