Predictions
The 9 October board's current cells are replayed over results from 30 July through 9 October. Later results use each publication day's benchmark snapshot. Cards show where badagbet's walk-forward number disagrees with bookmaker prices. One card per match, one row per position, with the latest current offer or last pre-kickoff price — green while it pays, red once it does not.
Mon, 5 Oct 2026 · 21 positions on 13 matches across 6 bookmakers
How this board differs from Telegram
This board is one kickoff day (UTC−6), and green means the model still has any edge at a book's own line. The StatsGem VIP Picks bot answers /picks for the next 7 days, one section per kickoff day, and calls a position paying only at breakeven +10 %, so the two lists differ by design.
That day
settled positions21all with a result
won / lost11 / 10positions won / lost
avg odds2.17mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+2.75units, one a position
ROI, the day+13.1%profit ÷ staked
One flat unit per cell and fixture, priced at each book's last pre-kickoff offer. EV and margin use the walk-forward model number for that line.
Showing 13 of 13 matches
A match stays visible when at least one position matches the selected filters.
Japanv
New ZealandInternational Friendly Games3 positions · 2 of 3 won · +1.35 units
Fouls · match total · under
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.25 avg → +1.25 · ROI +125.0%- Betliveunder 21.52.50+30.9%14.1%won +1.50first captured 2.50 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
- Crocobetunder 22.52.00+17.3%14.5%won +1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Shots · match total · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.98 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 23.52.00+9.8%14.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Betliveover 23.51.95+7.1%13.8%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Shots · home team · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.10 avg → +1.10 · ROI +110.0%- Betliveover 16.52.25+18.0%13.4%won +1.25first captured 2.25 → last pre-kickoff 2.25
- Crocobetover 15.51.95+17.9%13.8%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
CórdobavCD TenerifeLaLiga 22 positions · 0 of 2 won · −2.00 units
Shots · match total · over
1 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.27 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 25.52.00+40.7%14.5%won +1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Superbetover 28.52.80+43.5%10.3%lost −1.00first captured 2.80 → last pre-kickoff 2.80
- Liderbetover 26.52.00+28.4%14.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Shots · home team · over
1 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.35 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetover 15.52.10+32.9%14.3%won +1.10first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Superbetover 16.52.60+41.6%7.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.60 → last pre-kickoff 2.60
Italyv
TürkiyeUEFA Nations League1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.69 units
Fouls · match total · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.69 avg → +1.69 · ROI +169.3%- Betliveunder 22.52.95+67.0%12.0%won +1.95first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.95
- Crocobetunder 22.52.95+67.0%12.0%won +1.95first captured 2.65 → last pre-kickoff 2.95
- Liderbetunder 24.52.50+72.1%11.9%won +1.50first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
- Superbetunder 22.52.37+34.2%8.0%won +1.37first captured 2.32 → last pre-kickoff 2.37
Ukrainev
HungaryUEFA Nations League1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.05 units
Fouls · match total · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.05 avg → +1.05 · ROI +105.0%- Liderbetunder 27.52.05+5.5%11.3%won +1.05first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
Northern Irelandv
GeorgiaUEFA Nations League1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.12 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.12 avg → +1.12 · ROI +111.7%- Crocobetunder 25.52.20+18.7%12.1%won +1.20first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
- Liderbetunder 25.52.10+13.3%12.1%won +1.10first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Betliveunder 25.52.05+10.6%13.3%won +1.05first captured 2.05 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
Romaniav
SwedenUEFA Nations League3 positions · 1 of 3 won · −1.19 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.38 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetunder 21.52.55+36.8%12.2%lost −1.00first captured 3.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.55
- Betliveunder 21.52.45+31.4%12.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.95 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Crocobetunder 21.52.45+31.4%12.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.95 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Superbetunder 22.52.07+24.8%7.8%lost −1.00first captured 2.12 → last pre-kickoff 2.07
Shots · match total · over
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.04 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 25.52.20+10.2%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
- Betliveover 25.52.10+5.1%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.30 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Liderbetover 25.51.95−2.4%11.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.35 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Kambiover 25.51.91−4.4%11.2%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.91
Shots · home team · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.81 avg → +0.81 · ROI +81.0%- BetMGM UKover 10.51.81−3.9%13.7%won +0.81first captured 1.92 → last pre-kickoff 1.81
Francev
BelgiumUEFA Nations League1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.39 units
Fouls · match total · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.39 avg → +1.39 · ROI +139.3%- Betliveunder 20.52.55+41.2%11.7%won +1.55first captured 2.55 → last pre-kickoff 2.55
- Liderbetunder 20.52.55+41.2%12.2%won +1.55first captured 2.55 → last pre-kickoff 2.55
- Crocobetunder 20.52.45+35.6%12.2%won +1.45first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Superbetunder 22.52.02+38.3%8.3%won +1.02first captured 2.02 → last pre-kickoff 2.02
Montenegrov
ArmeniaUEFA Nations League3 positions · 0 of 3 won · −3.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 22.52.00+12.3%12.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Crocobetunder 22.52.00+12.3%12.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Liderbetunder 22.52.00+12.3%12.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Shots · match total · over
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.45 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetover 26.52.50+36.5%11.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.50 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
- Crocobetover 26.52.45+33.8%12.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Betliveover 26.52.40+31.1%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.40 → last pre-kickoff 2.40
Shots · home team · over
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.22 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetover 15.52.30+34.5%12.4%lost −1.00first captured 2.30 → last pre-kickoff 2.30
- Crocobetover 15.52.20+28.7%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
- Betliveover 15.52.15+25.8%13.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.15 → last pre-kickoff 2.15
Bosnia & Herzegovinav
PolandUEFA Nations League1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.52 units
Fouls · match total · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.52 avg → +1.52 · ROI +151.8%- Liderbetunder 24.53.25+76.8%12.1%won +2.25first captured 2.40 → last pre-kickoff 3.25
- Betliveunder 24.52.40+30.5%12.1%won +1.40first captured 2.40 → last pre-kickoff 2.40
- Crocobetunder 24.52.30+25.1%12.4%won +1.30first captured 2.30 → last pre-kickoff 2.30
- Superbetunder 25.52.12+28.1%7.8%won +1.12first captured 1.88 → last pre-kickoff 2.12
Deportivo RiestravCentral CórdobaLiga Profesional de Fútbol2 positions · 1 of 2 won · +0.05 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.05 avg → +1.05 · ROI +105.0%- Betliveunder 22.52.50+33.6%14.1%won +1.50first captured 2.50 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
- Liderbetunder 24.51.85+27.4%14.7%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
- Crocobetunder 24.51.80+23.9%14.4%won +0.80first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Shots · match total · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.85 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 24.51.85−4.9%14.7%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
- Liderbetover 24.51.85−4.9%14.7%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Estudiantes de La PlatavGimnasia y Esgrima MendozaLiga Profesional de Fútbol1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.23 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 25.52.35+21.8%14.0%lost −1.00first captured 2.25 → last pre-kickoff 2.35
- Crocobetunder 25.52.10+8.9%14.3%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
Vélez SarsfieldvPlatenseLiga Profesional de Fútbol1 position · 1 of 1 won · +0.97 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.97 avg → +0.97 · ROI +97.3%- Betliveunder 23.52.10+13.3%14.3%won +1.10first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Superbetunder 24.51.97+21.6%8.2%won +0.97first captured 1.73 → last pre-kickoff 1.97
- Crocobetunder 23.51.85−0.2%14.7%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
BanfieldvRosario CentralLiga Profesional de Fútbol1 position · 1 of 1 won · +0.80 units
Fouls · match total · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.80 avg → +0.80 · ROI +80.0%- Betliveunder 24.51.80−6.5%14.4%won +0.80first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Board record · all time
settled positions1,1349 October cells through 9 October; daily snapshots after
won / lost602 / 532positions won / lost
avg odds2.14mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+128.29units, one a position
measured ROI+11.3%1,134 settled positions in the board record · the calculator's r
How to read a card
- A card is a match, and it opens. The header carries the competition's badge and both crests — a national team shows its flag where a club wears a crest — beside the match's own record, so a closed board reads as a list of matches. Open one for every position on it and every book pricing it. Upcoming matches on StatsGem VIP Picks without a subscription show counts only: completed historical reads remain open, while upcoming prices and positions require access.
- A position is one market opinion — shots over the match total, corners under the away team, and so on. A match appears once per position.
- Every book that prices it is listed, each with its own line. Books sit on different rungs of the same ladder, so the line beside a book is the one that book is actually quoting. A book quoting more than one rung opens: its name is the control, and the whole ladder is inside — every threshold that book prices, each with its own price, EV, margin and verdict, and the rung the row above is showing marked. A book with a single price has nothing to open and stays flat.
- Green pays, red does not. A price is green while the model's number times that price is still above one; it turns red when the book shortens, when the price stops paying for the model's number, or when the model changes its mind. Historical rows show the last pre-kickoff offer; on a played day the row also shows the result at that line.
- EV is the model's claim, margin is the book's cut. EV is the model's probability times the price minus one — what a unit at that price is expected to return by the model's numbers. Margin is the book's overround on the market the price came from, because the same EV is a different offer at a 2 % cut and at a 9 % one.
- The historical replay starts on 30 July. Through 9 October, results use the cells on that day's StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks boards, applied to earlier fixtures; this does not claim those cells were published on each past date. From 10 October onward, completed results follow each date's benchmark snapshot. Rows reconstructed after kickoff remain included without a separate label. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks
Board membership follows one daily gate pipeline. A cell needs at least 30 settled matches, positive full-record return, a positive newest 30 %, and positive own-match returns over 14 and 30 days. Once every gate clears,StatsGem VIP Picks takes cells at +10 % or better; StatsGem Free Picks takes positive cells below +10 %. Candidates and failing cells remain visible on Benchmarks but are not on either board. The 9 October board cells are applied to results from 30 July through 9 October. Later completed results use the benchmark snapshot for their date. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
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