Predictions
The 9 October board's current cells are replayed over results from 30 July through 9 October. Later results use each publication day's benchmark snapshot. Cards show where badagbet's walk-forward number disagrees with bookmaker prices. One card per match, one row per position, with the latest current offer or last pre-kickoff price — green while it pays, red once it does not.
Sun, 4 Oct 2026 · 27 positions on 17 matches across 5 bookmakers
How this board differs from Telegram
This board is one kickoff day (UTC−6), and green means the model still has any edge at a book's own line. The StatsGem VIP Picks bot answers /picks for the next 7 days, one section per kickoff day, and calls a position paying only at breakeven +10 %, so the two lists differ by design.
That day
settled positions27all with a result
won / lost14 / 13positions won / lost
avg odds2.25mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+3.61units, one a position
ROI, the day+13.4%profit ÷ staked
One flat unit per cell and fixture, priced at each book's last pre-kickoff offer. EV and margin use the walk-forward model number for that line.
Showing 17 of 17 matches
A match stays visible when at least one position matches the selected filters.
Real Sociedad BvGranadaLaLiga 23 positions · 3 of 3 won · +2.98 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → +0.95 · ROI +95.0%- Betliveunder 27.52.05+11.7%13.3%won +1.05first captured 2.05 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
- Liderbetunder 27.52.00+9.0%14.5%won +1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Crocobetunder 28.51.80+10.3%14.4%won +0.80first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Shots · match total · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.20 avg → +1.20 · ROI +120.0%- Superbetover 27.52.70+37.4%8.0%won +1.70first captured 2.35 → last pre-kickoff 2.70
- Betliveover 27.52.45+24.6%13.8%won +1.45first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Liderbetover 26.51.85+6.5%14.7%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
- Crocobetover 25.51.80+15.5%14.4%won +0.80first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Shots · home team · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.82 avg → +0.83 · ROI +82.5%- Crocobetover 13.51.85−1.3%14.7%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
- Liderbetover 13.51.80−4.0%14.4%won +0.80first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Azerbaijanv
LithuaniaUEFA Nations League2 positions · 2 of 2 won · +2.65 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.08 avg → +1.08 · ROI +108.3%- Crocobetunder 27.52.20+17.1%12.1%won +1.20first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
- Liderbetunder 27.52.05+9.2%11.3%won +1.05first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
- Betliveunder 27.52.00+6.5%12.5%won +1.00first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Shots · match total · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.57 avg → +1.57 · ROI +156.7%- Crocobetover 22.52.65+39.0%11.8%won +1.65first captured 2.30 → last pre-kickoff 2.65
- Liderbetover 22.52.55+33.8%12.2%won +1.55first captured 2.40 → last pre-kickoff 2.55
- Betliveover 22.52.50+31.1%11.9%won +1.50first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
Sporting GijónvCelta Vigo BLaLiga 22 positions · 1 of 2 won · +0.04 units
Shots · match total · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.04 avg → +1.04 · ROI +103.8%- Betliveover 25.52.45+29.2%13.8%won +1.45first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Crocobetover 24.51.95+16.4%13.8%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Superbetover 25.51.95+2.8%8.1%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Liderbetover 25.51.80−5.1%14.4%won +0.80first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Shots · home team · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 14.51.95+6.4%13.8%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Crocobetover 14.51.85+0.9%14.7%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Kosovov
AustriaUEFA Nations League1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.52 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.52 avg → +1.52 · ROI +151.7%- Liderbetunder 24.52.75+46.2%12.1%won +1.75first captured 2.15 → last pre-kickoff 2.75
- Crocobetunder 24.52.45+30.3%12.2%won +1.45first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Betliveunder 24.52.35+24.9%12.0%won +1.35first captured 2.35 → last pre-kickoff 2.35
Las PalmasvReal ValladolidLaLiga 21 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.02 units
Shots · match total · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.02 avg → +1.02 · ROI +102.3%- Superbetover 24.52.12+7.5%8.1%won +1.12first captured 2.12 → last pre-kickoff 2.12
- Liderbetover 24.52.00+1.4%14.5%won +1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Crocobetover 24.51.95−1.1%13.8%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
CD CastellónvAD CeutaLaLiga 22 positions · 0 of 2 won · −2.00 units
Shots · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 3.45 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 32.53.45+88.5%10.9%lost −1.00first captured 3.45 → last pre-kickoff 3.45
Shots · home team · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.52 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 22.53.05+57.7%8.0%lost −1.00first captured 3.05 → last pre-kickoff 3.05
- Liderbetover 20.52.00+33.1%14.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
HuracánvAldosiviLiga Profesional de Fútbol1 position · 1 of 1 won · +0.91 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.91 avg → +0.91 · ROI +90.7%- Crocobetunder 23.52.00+25.0%14.5%won +1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Superbetunder 24.51.92+34.1%7.6%won +0.92first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.92
- Liderbetunder 24.51.80+25.7%14.4%won +0.80first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Moroccov
MaliInternational Friendly Games3 positions · 1 of 3 won · −0.95 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.30 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 23.52.50+33.5%14.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.50 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
- Crocobetunder 24.52.10+24.5%14.3%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
Shots · match total · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.05 avg → +1.05 · ROI +105.0%- Betliveover 21.52.10+10.9%14.3%won +1.10first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Crocobetover 21.52.00+5.6%14.5%won +1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Shots · home team · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.25 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 13.52.25+26.8%13.4%lost −1.00first captured 2.25 → last pre-kickoff 2.25
Greecev
GermanyUEFA Nations League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.35 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 21.52.45+39.3%12.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Crocobetunder 21.52.45+39.3%12.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Liderbetunder 22.52.35+49.0%11.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.35
- Superbetunder 22.52.15+36.3%8.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.15 → last pre-kickoff 2.15
Walesv
DenmarkUEFA Nations League1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.91 units
Fouls · match total · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.91 avg → +1.91 · ROI +191.3%- Betliveunder 21.53.10+63.6%12.3%won +2.10first captured 2.50 → last pre-kickoff 3.10
- Crocobetunder 21.53.10+63.6%12.3%won +2.10first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 3.10
- Liderbetunder 21.53.10+63.6%12.3%won +2.10first captured 2.55 → last pre-kickoff 3.10
- Superbetunder 21.52.35+24.0%7.9%won +1.35first captured 2.32 → last pre-kickoff 2.35
Portugalv
NorwayUEFA Nations League1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.58 units
Fouls · match total · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.58 avg → +1.58 · ROI +158.0%- Liderbetunder 18.52.80+54.0%12.1%won +1.80first captured 3.15 → last pre-kickoff 2.80
- Crocobetunder 18.52.75+51.3%11.5%won +1.75first captured 3.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.75
- Betliveunder 18.52.65+45.8%11.8%won +1.65first captured 2.65 → last pre-kickoff 2.65
- Superbetunder 19.52.12+32.0%8.1%won +1.12first captured 2.07 → last pre-kickoff 2.12
Irelandv
IsraelUEFA Nations League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 1.94 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetunder 24.52.05+20.7%7.6%lost −1.00first captured 1.92 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
- Crocobetunder 23.51.95+2.6%11.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Liderbetunder 23.51.90−0.0%11.5%lost −1.00first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
- Betliveunder 23.51.85−2.6%11.2%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Netherlandsv
SerbiaUEFA Nations League2 positions · 1 of 2 won · +0.10 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 3.12 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetunder 19.53.20+79.7%12.5%lost −1.00first captured 3.20 → last pre-kickoff 3.20
- Crocobetunder 19.53.10+74.1%12.3%lost −1.00first captured 3.10 → last pre-kickoff 3.10
- Betliveunder 19.53.05+71.3%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 3.05 → last pre-kickoff 3.05
Shots · home team · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.10 avg → +1.10 · ROI +110.2%- Betliveover 21.52.30+16.1%12.4%won +1.30first captured 2.55 → last pre-kickoff 2.30
- Crocobetover 20.52.10+21.2%12.1%won +1.10first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Liderbetover 21.52.10+6.0%12.1%won +1.10first captured 2.25 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Bet365over 21.51.91−3.6%7.9%won +0.91first captured 2.38 → last pre-kickoff 1.91
Girona FCvMallorcaLaLiga 23 positions · 1 of 3 won · −1.14 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.83 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 26.51.85−2.6%14.7%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
- Liderbetunder 26.51.85−2.6%14.7%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
- Betliveunder 26.51.80−5.2%14.4%lost −1.00first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Shots · match total · over
1 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.22 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 24.51.95+39.5%13.8%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Superbetover 27.52.70+40.9%8.0%lost −1.00first captured 2.62 → last pre-kickoff 2.70
- Liderbetover 26.52.00+17.7%14.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Shots · home team · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.86 avg → +0.86 · ROI +86.0%- Superbetover 13.51.92+10.2%8.3%won +0.92first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.92
- Liderbetover 13.51.80+3.3%14.4%won +0.80first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
CE SabadellvFC AndorraLaLiga 21 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Shots · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.47 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 25.52.47+40.1%9.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.47
Argentinos JuniorsvTigreLiga Profesional de Fútbol1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.88 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetunder 22.51.95+13.6%8.1%lost −1.00first captured 1.87 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Crocobetunder 23.51.80+18.9%14.4%lost −1.00first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Estudiantes de Río CuartovRacing ClubLiga Profesional de Fútbol1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetunder 24.51.95+7.9%8.4%lost −1.00first captured 1.88 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Board record · all time
settled positions1,0819 October cells through 9 October; daily snapshots after
won / lost579 / 502positions won / lost
avg odds2.14mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+134.79units, one a position
measured ROI+12.5%1,081 settled positions in the board record · the calculator's r
How to read a card
- A card is a match, and it opens. The header carries the competition's badge and both crests — a national team shows its flag where a club wears a crest — beside the match's own record, so a closed board reads as a list of matches. Open one for every position on it and every book pricing it. Upcoming matches on StatsGem VIP Picks without a subscription show counts only: completed historical reads remain open, while upcoming prices and positions require access.
- A position is one market opinion — shots over the match total, corners under the away team, and so on. A match appears once per position.
- Every book that prices it is listed, each with its own line. Books sit on different rungs of the same ladder, so the line beside a book is the one that book is actually quoting. A book quoting more than one rung opens: its name is the control, and the whole ladder is inside — every threshold that book prices, each with its own price, EV, margin and verdict, and the rung the row above is showing marked. A book with a single price has nothing to open and stays flat.
- Green pays, red does not. A price is green while the model's number times that price is still above one; it turns red when the book shortens, when the price stops paying for the model's number, or when the model changes its mind. Historical rows show the last pre-kickoff offer; on a played day the row also shows the result at that line.
- EV is the model's claim, margin is the book's cut. EV is the model's probability times the price minus one — what a unit at that price is expected to return by the model's numbers. Margin is the book's overround on the market the price came from, because the same EV is a different offer at a 2 % cut and at a 9 % one.
- The historical replay starts on 30 July. Through 9 October, results use the cells on that day's StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks boards, applied to earlier fixtures; this does not claim those cells were published on each past date. From 10 October onward, completed results follow each date's benchmark snapshot. Rows reconstructed after kickoff remain included without a separate label. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks
Board membership follows one daily gate pipeline. A cell needs at least 30 settled matches, positive full-record return, a positive newest 30 %, and positive own-match returns over 14 and 30 days. Once every gate clears,StatsGem VIP Picks takes cells at +10 % or better; StatsGem Free Picks takes positive cells below +10 %. Candidates and failing cells remain visible on Benchmarks but are not on either board. The 9 October board cells are applied to results from 30 July through 9 October. Later completed results use the benchmark snapshot for their date. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
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