Predictions
The 9 October board's current cells are replayed over results from 30 July through 9 October. Later results use each publication day's benchmark snapshot. Cards show where badagbet's walk-forward number disagrees with bookmaker prices. One card per match, one row per position, with the latest current offer or last pre-kickoff price — green while it pays, red once it does not.
Sun, 4 Oct 2026 · 27 positions on 17 matches across 5 bookmakers
How this board differs from Telegram
This board is one kickoff day (UTC−6), and green means the model still has any edge at a book's own line. The StatsGem VIP Picks bot answers /picks for the next 7 days, one section per kickoff day, and calls a position paying only at breakeven +10 %, so the two lists differ by design.
That day
settled positions27all with a result
won / lost14 / 13positions won / lost
avg odds2.25mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+3.61units, one a position
ROI, the day+13.4%profit ÷ staked
One flat unit per cell and fixture, priced at each book's last pre-kickoff offer. EV and margin use the walk-forward model number for that line.
Showing 17 of 17 matches
A match stays visible when at least one position matches the selected filters.
Real Sociedad BvGranadaLaLiga 23 positions · 3 of 3 won · +2.98 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → +0.95 · ROI +95.0%- Betliveunder 27.52.05+11.7%13.3%won +1.05first captured 2.05 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
- Liderbetunder 27.52.00+9.0%14.5%won +1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Crocobetunder 28.51.80+10.3%14.4%won +0.80first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Shots · match total · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.20 avg → +1.20 · ROI +120.0%- Superbetover 27.52.70+37.4%8.0%won +1.70first captured 2.35 → last pre-kickoff 2.70
- Betliveover 27.52.45+24.6%13.8%won +1.45first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Liderbetover 26.51.85+6.5%14.7%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
- Crocobetover 25.51.80+15.5%14.4%won +0.80first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Shots · home team · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.82 avg → +0.83 · ROI +82.5%- Crocobetover 13.51.85−1.3%14.7%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
- Liderbetover 13.51.80−4.0%14.4%won +0.80first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Azerbaijanv
LithuaniaUEFA Nations League2 positions · 2 of 2 won · +2.65 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.08 avg → +1.08 · ROI +108.3%- Crocobetunder 27.52.20+17.1%12.1%won +1.20first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
- Liderbetunder 27.52.05+9.2%11.3%won +1.05first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
- Betliveunder 27.52.00+6.5%12.5%won +1.00first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Shots · match total · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.57 avg → +1.57 · ROI +156.7%- Crocobetover 22.52.65+39.0%11.8%won +1.65first captured 2.30 → last pre-kickoff 2.65
- Liderbetover 22.52.55+33.8%12.2%won +1.55first captured 2.40 → last pre-kickoff 2.55
- Betliveover 22.52.50+31.1%11.9%won +1.50first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
Sporting GijónvCelta Vigo BLaLiga 22 positions · 1 of 2 won · +0.04 units
Shots · match total · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.04 avg → +1.04 · ROI +103.8%- Betliveover 25.52.45+29.2%13.8%won +1.45first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Crocobetover 24.51.95+16.4%13.8%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Superbetover 25.51.95+2.8%8.1%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Liderbetover 25.51.80−5.1%14.4%won +0.80first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Shots · home team · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 14.51.95+6.4%13.8%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Crocobetover 14.51.85+0.9%14.7%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Kosovov
AustriaUEFA Nations League1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.52 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.52 avg → +1.52 · ROI +151.7%- Liderbetunder 24.52.75+46.2%12.1%won +1.75first captured 2.15 → last pre-kickoff 2.75
- Crocobetunder 24.52.45+30.3%12.2%won +1.45first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Betliveunder 24.52.35+24.9%12.0%won +1.35first captured 2.35 → last pre-kickoff 2.35
Las PalmasvReal ValladolidLaLiga 21 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.02 units
Shots · match total · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.02 avg → +1.02 · ROI +102.3%- Superbetover 24.52.12+7.5%8.1%won +1.12first captured 2.12 → last pre-kickoff 2.12
- Liderbetover 24.52.00+1.4%14.5%won +1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Crocobetover 24.51.95−1.1%13.8%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
CD CastellónvAD CeutaLaLiga 22 positions · 0 of 2 won · −2.00 units
Shots · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 3.45 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 32.53.45+88.5%10.9%lost −1.00first captured 3.45 → last pre-kickoff 3.45
Shots · home team · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.52 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 22.53.05+57.7%8.0%lost −1.00first captured 3.05 → last pre-kickoff 3.05
- Liderbetover 20.52.00+33.1%14.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
HuracánvAldosiviLiga Profesional de Fútbol1 position · 1 of 1 won · +0.91 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.91 avg → +0.91 · ROI +90.7%- Crocobetunder 23.52.00+25.0%14.5%won +1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Superbetunder 24.51.92+34.1%7.6%won +0.92first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.92
- Liderbetunder 24.51.80+25.7%14.4%won +0.80first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Moroccov
MaliInternational Friendly Games3 positions · 1 of 3 won · −0.95 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.30 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 23.52.50+33.5%14.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.50 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
- Crocobetunder 24.52.10+24.5%14.3%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
Shots · match total · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.05 avg → +1.05 · ROI +105.0%- Betliveover 21.52.10+10.9%14.3%won +1.10first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Crocobetover 21.52.00+5.6%14.5%won +1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Shots · home team · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.25 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 13.52.25+26.8%13.4%lost −1.00first captured 2.25 → last pre-kickoff 2.25
Greecev
GermanyUEFA Nations League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.35 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 21.52.45+39.3%12.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Crocobetunder 21.52.45+39.3%12.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Liderbetunder 22.52.35+49.0%11.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.35
- Superbetunder 22.52.15+36.3%8.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.15 → last pre-kickoff 2.15
Walesv
DenmarkUEFA Nations League1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.91 units
Fouls · match total · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.91 avg → +1.91 · ROI +191.3%- Betliveunder 21.53.10+63.6%12.3%won +2.10first captured 2.50 → last pre-kickoff 3.10
- Crocobetunder 21.53.10+63.6%12.3%won +2.10first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 3.10
- Liderbetunder 21.53.10+63.6%12.3%won +2.10first captured 2.55 → last pre-kickoff 3.10
- Superbetunder 21.52.35+24.0%7.9%won +1.35first captured 2.32 → last pre-kickoff 2.35
Portugalv
NorwayUEFA Nations League1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.58 units
Fouls · match total · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.58 avg → +1.58 · ROI +158.0%- Liderbetunder 18.52.80+54.0%12.1%won +1.80first captured 3.15 → last pre-kickoff 2.80
- Crocobetunder 18.52.75+51.3%11.5%won +1.75first captured 3.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.75
- Betliveunder 18.52.65+45.8%11.8%won +1.65first captured 2.65 → last pre-kickoff 2.65
- Superbetunder 19.52.12+32.0%8.1%won +1.12first captured 2.07 → last pre-kickoff 2.12
Irelandv
IsraelUEFA Nations League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 1.94 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetunder 24.52.05+20.7%7.6%lost −1.00first captured 1.92 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
- Crocobetunder 23.51.95+2.6%11.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Liderbetunder 23.51.90−0.0%11.5%lost −1.00first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
- Betliveunder 23.51.85−2.6%11.2%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Netherlandsv
SerbiaUEFA Nations League2 positions · 1 of 2 won · +0.10 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 3.12 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetunder 19.53.20+79.7%12.5%lost −1.00first captured 3.20 → last pre-kickoff 3.20
- Crocobetunder 19.53.10+74.1%12.3%lost −1.00first captured 3.10 → last pre-kickoff 3.10
- Betliveunder 19.53.05+71.3%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 3.05 → last pre-kickoff 3.05
Shots · home team · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.10 avg → +1.10 · ROI +110.2%- Betliveover 21.52.30+16.1%12.4%won +1.30first captured 2.55 → last pre-kickoff 2.30
- Crocobetover 20.52.10+21.2%12.1%won +1.10first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Liderbetover 21.52.10+6.0%12.1%won +1.10first captured 2.25 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Bet365over 21.51.91−3.6%7.9%won +0.91first captured 2.38 → last pre-kickoff 1.91
Girona FCvMallorcaLaLiga 23 positions · 1 of 3 won · −1.14 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.83 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 26.51.85−2.6%14.7%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
- Liderbetunder 26.51.85−2.6%14.7%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
- Betliveunder 26.51.80−5.2%14.4%lost −1.00first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Shots · match total · over
1 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.22 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 24.51.95+39.5%13.8%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Superbetover 27.52.70+40.9%8.0%lost −1.00first captured 2.62 → last pre-kickoff 2.70
- Liderbetover 26.52.00+17.7%14.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Shots · home team · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.86 avg → +0.86 · ROI +86.0%- Superbetover 13.51.92+10.2%8.3%won +0.92first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.92
- Liderbetover 13.51.80+3.3%14.4%won +0.80first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
CE SabadellvFC AndorraLaLiga 21 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Shots · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.47 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 25.52.47+40.1%9.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.47
Argentinos JuniorsvTigreLiga Profesional de Fútbol1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.88 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetunder 22.51.95+13.6%8.1%lost −1.00first captured 1.87 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Crocobetunder 23.51.80+18.9%14.4%lost −1.00first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Estudiantes de Río CuartovRacing ClubLiga Profesional de Fútbol1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetunder 24.51.95+7.9%8.4%lost −1.00first captured 1.88 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Board record · all time
settled positions1,2389 October cells through 9 October; daily snapshots after
won / lost641 / 597positions won / lost
avg odds2.13mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+100.28units, one a position
measured ROI+8.1%1,238 settled positions in the board record · the calculator's r
How to read a card
- A card is a match, and it opens. The header carries the competition's badge and both crests — a national team shows its flag where a club wears a crest — beside the match's own record, so a closed board reads as a list of matches. Open one for every position on it and every book pricing it. Upcoming matches on StatsGem VIP Picks without a subscription show counts only: completed historical reads remain open, while upcoming prices and positions require access.
- A position is one market opinion — shots over the match total, corners under the away team, and so on. A match appears once per position.
- Every book that prices it is listed, each with its own line. Books sit on different rungs of the same ladder, so the line beside a book is the one that book is actually quoting. A book quoting more than one rung opens: its name is the control, and the whole ladder is inside — every threshold that book prices, each with its own price, EV, margin and verdict, and the rung the row above is showing marked. A book with a single price has nothing to open and stays flat.
- Green pays, red does not. A price is green while the model's number times that price is still above one; it turns red when the book shortens, when the price stops paying for the model's number, or when the model changes its mind. Historical rows show the last pre-kickoff offer; on a played day the row also shows the result at that line.
- EV is the model's claim, margin is the book's cut. EV is the model's probability times the price minus one — what a unit at that price is expected to return by the model's numbers. Margin is the book's overround on the market the price came from, because the same EV is a different offer at a 2 % cut and at a 9 % one.
- The historical replay starts on 30 July. Through 9 October, results use the cells on that day's StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks boards, applied to earlier fixtures; this does not claim those cells were published on each past date. From 10 October onward, completed results follow each date's benchmark snapshot. Rows reconstructed after kickoff remain included without a separate label. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks
Each bookmaker and market cell is measured separately. Its own record needs at least 30 settled matches, positive full return, a positive newest 30 %, and positive 14- and 30-day returns. Once every gate clears,StatsGem VIP Picks takes that bookmaker's offer at +10 % or better; StatsGem Free Picks takes it below +10 %. Other bookmakers on the same market can have different states. The 9 October board cells are applied to results from 30 July through 9 October. Later completed results use the benchmark snapshot for their date. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
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