Predictions
The 9 October board's current cells are replayed over results from 30 July through 9 October. Later results use each publication day's benchmark snapshot. Cards show where badagbet's walk-forward number disagrees with bookmaker prices. One card per match, one row per position, with the latest current offer or last pre-kickoff price — green while it pays, red once it does not.
Wed, 30 Sept 2026 · 6 positions on 4 matches across 3 bookmakers
How this board differs from Telegram
This board is one kickoff day (UTC−6), and green means the model still has any edge at a book's own line. The StatsGem VIP Picks bot answers /picks for the next 7 days, one section per kickoff day, and calls a position paying only at breakeven +10 %, so the two lists differ by design.
That day
One flat unit per cell and fixture, priced at each book's last pre-kickoff offer. EV and margin use the walk-forward model number for that line.
A match stays visible when at least one position matches the selected filters.
Lithuaniav
AndorraInternational Friendly Games1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 27.52.00+28.2%14.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Paris FC (Women)vArsenal (Women)UEFA Women's Champions League1 position · 1 of 1 won · +0.80 units
Fouls · match total · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.80 avg → +0.80 · ROI +80.0%- Crocobetunder 17.51.80+1.8%14.4%won +0.80first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Benfica (Women)vFC Bayern München (Women)UEFA Women's Champions League1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.10 units
Fouls · match total · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.10 avg → +1.10 · ROI +110.0%- Crocobetunder 18.52.10+9.1%14.3%won +1.10first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
Argentinav
BoliviaInternational Friendly Games3 positions · 2 of 3 won · +1.55 units
Fouls · match total · under
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.58 avg → +1.58 · ROI +157.5%- Betliveunder 23.52.80+93.8%13.8%won +1.80first captured 2.80 → last pre-kickoff 2.80
- Liderbetunder 24.52.35+74.9%11.5%won +1.35first captured 2.35 → last pre-kickoff 2.35
Shots · match total · over
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.45 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 24.52.95+81.5%13.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.95 → last pre-kickoff 2.95
- Liderbetover 24.52.45+50.7%12.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.50 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Crocobetover 23.51.95+31.1%13.8%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Shots · home team · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.97 avg → +0.97 · ROI +96.7%- Betliveover 16.52.05+52.2%13.3%won +1.05first captured 2.25 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
- Crocobetover 16.51.95+44.7%13.8%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Liderbetover 16.51.90+41.0%11.5%won +0.90first captured 1.97 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Board record · all time
How to read a card
- A card is a match, and it opens. The header carries the competition's badge and both crests — a national team shows its flag where a club wears a crest — beside the match's own record, so a closed board reads as a list of matches. Open one for every position on it and every book pricing it. Upcoming matches on StatsGem VIP Picks without a subscription show counts only: completed historical reads remain open, while upcoming prices and positions require access.
- A position is one market opinion — shots over the match total, corners under the away team, and so on. A match appears once per position.
- Every book that prices it is listed, each with its own line. Books sit on different rungs of the same ladder, so the line beside a book is the one that book is actually quoting. A book quoting more than one rung opens: its name is the control, and the whole ladder is inside — every threshold that book prices, each with its own price, EV, margin and verdict, and the rung the row above is showing marked. A book with a single price has nothing to open and stays flat.
- Green pays, red does not. A price is green while the model's number times that price is still above one; it turns red when the book shortens, when the price stops paying for the model's number, or when the model changes its mind. Historical rows show the last pre-kickoff offer; on a played day the row also shows the result at that line.
- EV is the model's claim, margin is the book's cut. EV is the model's probability times the price minus one — what a unit at that price is expected to return by the model's numbers. Margin is the book's overround on the market the price came from, because the same EV is a different offer at a 2 % cut and at a 9 % one.
- The historical replay starts on 30 July. Through 9 October, results use the cells on that day's StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks boards, applied to earlier fixtures; this does not claim those cells were published on each past date. From 10 October onward, completed results follow each date's benchmark snapshot. Rows reconstructed after kickoff remain included without a separate label. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks
Board membership follows one daily gate pipeline. A cell needs at least 30 settled matches, positive full-record return, a positive newest 30 %, and positive own-match returns over 14 and 30 days. Once every gate clears,StatsGem VIP Picks takes cells at +10 % or better; StatsGem Free Picks takes positive cells below +10 %. Candidates and failing cells remain visible on Benchmarks but are not on either board. The 9 October board cells are applied to results from 30 July through 9 October. Later completed results use the benchmark snapshot for their date. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks is public. A subscription opens upcoming match details and bookmaker prices on StatsGem VIP Picks.