Predictions
The 9 October board's current cells are replayed over results from 30 July through 9 October. Later results use each publication day's benchmark snapshot. Cards show where badagbet's walk-forward number disagrees with bookmaker prices. One card per match, one row per position, with the latest current offer or last pre-kickoff price — green while it pays, red once it does not.
Tue, 29 Sept 2026 · 15 positions on 8 matches across 4 bookmakers
How this board differs from Telegram
This board is one kickoff day (UTC−6), and green means the model still has any edge at a book's own line. The StatsGem VIP Picks bot answers /picks for the next 7 days, one section per kickoff day, and calls a position paying only at breakeven +10 %, so the two lists differ by design.
That day
settled positions15all with a result
won / lost8 / 7positions won / lost
avg odds2.15mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+1.92units, one a position
ROI, the day+12.8%profit ÷ staked
One flat unit per cell and fixture, priced at each book's last pre-kickoff offer. EV and margin use the walk-forward model number for that line.
Showing 8 of 8 matches
A match stays visible when at least one position matches the selected filters.
Finlandv
BelarusUEFA Nations League2 positions · 0 of 2 won · −2.00 units
Shots · match total · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.93 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 22.51.95−2.2%11.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.40 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Crocobetover 22.51.90−4.7%11.5%lost −1.00first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Shots · home team · over
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.03 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 14.52.10+14.7%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Liderbetover 14.52.05+12.0%11.3%lost −1.00first captured 2.15 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
- Betliveover 14.51.95+6.5%11.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.40 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Moldovav
Faroe IslandsUEFA Nations League1 position · 1 of 1 won · +0.92 units
Throw-ins · home team · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.92 avg → +0.92 · ROI +91.7%- Betliveover 22.51.95+0.7%11.9%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Crocobetover 22.51.90−1.9%11.5%won +0.90first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
- Liderbetover 22.51.90−1.9%11.5%won +0.90first captured 2.05 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Czechiav
EnglandUEFA Nations League1 position · 1 of 1 won · +0.87 units
Fouls · match total · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.87 avg → +0.87 · ROI +87.0%- Superbetunder 21.51.87+3.6%8.1%won +0.87first captured 1.87 → last pre-kickoff 1.87
Slovakiav
KazakhstanUEFA Nations League3 positions · 0 of 3 won · −3.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 24.52.05+10.3%13.3%lost −1.00first captured 2.05 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
- Crocobetunder 24.51.90+2.2%11.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
- Liderbetunder 24.51.90+2.2%13.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Shots · match total · over
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 25.52.05+8.1%13.3%lost −1.00first captured 2.05 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
- Liderbetover 25.52.00+5.5%12.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Crocobetover 25.51.95+2.8%11.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Shots · home team · over
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.42 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 17.52.45+49.5%12.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.75 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Betliveover 17.52.40+46.4%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.40 → last pre-kickoff 2.40
- Liderbetover 17.52.40+46.4%13.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.40 → last pre-kickoff 2.40
San Marinov
AlbaniaUEFA Nations League3 positions · 2 of 3 won · +1.90 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.78 avg → +1.78 · ROI +178.3%- Liderbetunder 24.52.85+63.9%12.0%won +1.85first captured 2.90 → last pre-kickoff 2.85
- Betliveunder 24.52.75+58.1%12.1%won +1.75first captured 2.75 → last pre-kickoff 2.75
- Crocobetunder 24.52.75+58.1%11.5%won +1.75first captured 2.75 → last pre-kickoff 2.75
Shots · match total · over
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 3.17 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetover 26.53.35+69.6%12.5%lost −1.00first captured 3.35 → last pre-kickoff 3.35
- Crocobetover 25.53.30+87.9%12.3%lost −1.00first captured 3.30 → last pre-kickoff 3.30
- Betliveover 25.52.85+62.3%12.0%lost −1.00first captured 2.85 → last pre-kickoff 2.85
Shots · home team · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.12 avg → +1.12 · ROI +111.7%- Crocobetover 4.52.30+42.7%12.4%won +1.30first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 2.30
- Liderbetover 4.52.15+33.4%13.2%won +1.15first captured 2.05 → last pre-kickoff 2.15
- Betliveover 4.51.90+17.9%11.5%won +0.90first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Spainv
CroatiaUEFA Nations League1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.01 units
Fouls · match total · under
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.01 avg → +1.01 · ROI +101.0%- Liderbetunder 20.52.10+18.9%12.1%won +1.10first captured 1.75 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Superbetunder 20.51.92+8.7%8.3%won +0.92first captured 1.92 → last pre-kickoff 1.92
USAv
ChileInternational Friendly Games2 positions · 2 of 2 won · +1.88 units
Fouls · match total · under
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.98 avg → +0.98 · ROI +97.5%- Crocobetunder 22.52.00+11.7%14.5%won +1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Liderbetunder 23.51.95+20.6%11.9%won +0.95first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Shots · home team · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → +0.90 · ROI +90.0%- Liderbetover 14.51.95−1.3%11.9%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Crocobetover 14.51.85−6.3%14.7%won +0.85first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Mexicov
PeruInternational Friendly Games2 positions · 1 of 2 won · +0.35 units
Fouls · match total · under
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.35 avg → +1.35 · ROI +135.0%- Liderbetunder 25.52.35+43.6%11.5%won +1.35first captured 2.35 → last pre-kickoff 2.35
Shots · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetover 19.51.90+15.4%11.5%lost −1.00first captured 1.96 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Board record · all time
settled positions1,2389 October cells through 9 October; daily snapshots after
won / lost641 / 597positions won / lost
avg odds2.13mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+100.28units, one a position
measured ROI+8.1%1,238 settled positions in the board record · the calculator's r
How to read a card
- A card is a match, and it opens. The header carries the competition's badge and both crests — a national team shows its flag where a club wears a crest — beside the match's own record, so a closed board reads as a list of matches. Open one for every position on it and every book pricing it. Upcoming matches on StatsGem VIP Picks without a subscription show counts only: completed historical reads remain open, while upcoming prices and positions require access.
- A position is one market opinion — shots over the match total, corners under the away team, and so on. A match appears once per position.
- Every book that prices it is listed, each with its own line. Books sit on different rungs of the same ladder, so the line beside a book is the one that book is actually quoting. A book quoting more than one rung opens: its name is the control, and the whole ladder is inside — every threshold that book prices, each with its own price, EV, margin and verdict, and the rung the row above is showing marked. A book with a single price has nothing to open and stays flat.
- Green pays, red does not. A price is green while the model's number times that price is still above one; it turns red when the book shortens, when the price stops paying for the model's number, or when the model changes its mind. Historical rows show the last pre-kickoff offer; on a played day the row also shows the result at that line.
- EV is the model's claim, margin is the book's cut. EV is the model's probability times the price minus one — what a unit at that price is expected to return by the model's numbers. Margin is the book's overround on the market the price came from, because the same EV is a different offer at a 2 % cut and at a 9 % one.
- The historical replay starts on 30 July. Through 9 October, results use the cells on that day's StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks boards, applied to earlier fixtures; this does not claim those cells were published on each past date. From 10 October onward, completed results follow each date's benchmark snapshot. Rows reconstructed after kickoff remain included without a separate label. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks
Each bookmaker and market cell is measured separately. Its own record needs at least 30 settled matches, positive full return, a positive newest 30 %, and positive 14- and 30-day returns. Once every gate clears,StatsGem VIP Picks takes that bookmaker's offer at +10 % or better; StatsGem Free Picks takes it below +10 %. Other bookmakers on the same market can have different states. The 9 October board cells are applied to results from 30 July through 9 October. Later completed results use the benchmark snapshot for their date. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
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