Predictions
The 9 October board's current cells are replayed over results from 30 July through 9 October. Later results use each publication day's benchmark snapshot. Cards show where badagbet's walk-forward number disagrees with bookmaker prices. One card per match, one row per position, with the latest current offer or last pre-kickoff price — green while it pays, red once it does not.
Mon, 28 Sept 2026 · 9 positions on 6 matches across 6 bookmakers
How this board differs from Telegram
This board is one kickoff day (UTC−6), and green means the model still has any edge at a book's own line. The StatsGem VIP Picks bot answers /picks for the next 7 days, one section per kickoff day, and calls a position paying only at breakeven +10 %, so the two lists differ by design.
That day
One flat unit per cell and fixture, priced at each book's last pre-kickoff offer. EV and margin use the walk-forward model number for that line.
A match stays visible when at least one position matches the selected filters.
Georgiav
UkraineUEFA Nations League2 positions · 1 of 2 won · +0.15 units
Shots · match total · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.10 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 23.52.10+7.0%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
Shots · home team · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.15 avg → +1.15 · ROI +115.0%- Betliveover 12.52.35+20.2%12.0%won +1.35first captured 2.35 → last pre-kickoff 2.35
- Liderbetover 12.52.10+7.4%12.1%won +1.10first captured 2.35 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Crocobetover 12.52.00+2.3%12.5%won +1.00first captured 2.75 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
LeganésvCD CastellónLaLiga 21 position · 1 of 1 won · +0.87 units
Shots · match total · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.87 avg → +0.87 · ROI +87.0%- Superbetover 25.51.87+4.5%8.1%won +0.87first captured 1.88 → last pre-kickoff 1.87
Romaniav
Bosnia & HerzegovinaUEFA Nations League1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.08 units
Fouls · match total · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.08 avg → +1.08 · ROI +108.0%- Superbetunder 26.52.22+20.9%7.9%won +1.22first captured 1.97 → last pre-kickoff 2.22
- Betliveunder 26.52.05+11.7%13.3%won +1.05first captured 2.05 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
- Liderbetunder 26.52.05+11.7%13.3%won +1.05first captured 2.05 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
- Crocobetunder 26.52.00+8.9%12.5%won +1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Belgiumv
FranceUEFA Nations League1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.37 units
Fouls · match total · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.37 avg → +1.37 · ROI +136.8%- Liderbetunder 21.52.70+53.0%12.2%won +1.70first captured 2.55 → last pre-kickoff 2.70
- Crocobetunder 21.52.45+38.9%12.2%won +1.45first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Betliveunder 21.52.40+36.0%12.1%won +1.40first captured 2.40 → last pre-kickoff 2.40
- Superbetunder 21.51.92+8.8%8.3%won +0.92first captured 1.92 → last pre-kickoff 1.92
Türkiyev
ItalyUEFA Nations League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.31 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetunder 23.52.50+38.0%11.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.50 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
- Crocobetunder 23.52.45+35.2%12.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Betliveunder 23.52.40+32.5%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.40 → last pre-kickoff 2.40
- Superbetunder 24.51.90+16.6%8.2%lost −1.00first captured 1.92 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Swedenv
PolandUEFA Nations League3 positions · 2 of 3 won · +1.46 units
Fouls · match total · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.50 avg → +1.50 · ROI +150.5%- Crocobetunder 23.52.75+43.4%11.5%won +1.75first captured 2.75 → last pre-kickoff 2.75
- Betliveunder 23.52.55+32.9%11.7%won +1.55first captured 2.55 → last pre-kickoff 2.55
- Liderbetunder 23.52.50+30.3%11.9%won +1.50first captured 2.85 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
- Superbetunder 24.52.22+29.6%7.9%won +1.22first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.22
Shots · match total · over
5 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 1.96 avg → +0.96 · ROI +95.6%- Betliveover 24.52.00+6.5%12.5%won +1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Liderbetover 24.52.00+6.5%12.5%won +1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Crocobetover 24.51.95+3.8%11.9%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Kambiover 24.51.92+2.2%10.9%won +0.92first captured 2.18 → last pre-kickoff 1.92
- Bet365over 24.51.91+1.6%7.9%won +0.91first captured 2.75 → last pre-kickoff 1.91
Shots · home team · over
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.97 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetover 12.52.05+8.8%11.3%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
- Crocobetover 12.51.95+3.5%11.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.70 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Betliveover 12.51.90+0.8%11.5%lost −1.00first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Board record · all time
How to read a card
- A card is a match, and it opens. The header carries the competition's badge and both crests — a national team shows its flag where a club wears a crest — beside the match's own record, so a closed board reads as a list of matches. Open one for every position on it and every book pricing it. Upcoming matches on StatsGem VIP Picks without a subscription show counts only: completed historical reads remain open, while upcoming prices and positions require access.
- A position is one market opinion — shots over the match total, corners under the away team, and so on. A match appears once per position.
- Every book that prices it is listed, each with its own line. Books sit on different rungs of the same ladder, so the line beside a book is the one that book is actually quoting. A book quoting more than one rung opens: its name is the control, and the whole ladder is inside — every threshold that book prices, each with its own price, EV, margin and verdict, and the rung the row above is showing marked. A book with a single price has nothing to open and stays flat.
- Green pays, red does not. A price is green while the model's number times that price is still above one; it turns red when the book shortens, when the price stops paying for the model's number, or when the model changes its mind. Historical rows show the last pre-kickoff offer; on a played day the row also shows the result at that line.
- EV is the model's claim, margin is the book's cut. EV is the model's probability times the price minus one — what a unit at that price is expected to return by the model's numbers. Margin is the book's overround on the market the price came from, because the same EV is a different offer at a 2 % cut and at a 9 % one.
- The historical replay starts on 30 July. Through 9 October, results use the cells on that day's StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks boards, applied to earlier fixtures; this does not claim those cells were published on each past date. From 10 October onward, completed results follow each date's benchmark snapshot. Rows reconstructed after kickoff remain included without a separate label. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks
Each bookmaker and market cell is measured separately. Its own record needs at least 30 settled matches, positive full return, a positive newest 30 %, and positive 14- and 30-day returns. Once every gate clears,StatsGem VIP Picks takes that bookmaker's offer at +10 % or better; StatsGem Free Picks takes it below +10 %. Other bookmakers on the same market can have different states. The 9 October board cells are applied to results from 30 July through 9 October. Later completed results use the benchmark snapshot for their date. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks is public. A subscription opens upcoming match details and bookmaker prices on StatsGem VIP Picks.