Predictions
The 9 October board's current cells are replayed over results from 30 July through 9 October. Later results use each publication day's benchmark snapshot. Cards show where badagbet's walk-forward number disagrees with bookmaker prices. One card per match, one row per position, with the latest current offer or last pre-kickoff price — green while it pays, red once it does not.
Sun, 27 Sept 2026 · 16 positions on 11 matches across 4 bookmakers
How this board differs from Telegram
This board is one kickoff day (UTC−6), and green means the model still has any edge at a book's own line. The StatsGem VIP Picks bot answers /picks for the next 7 days, one section per kickoff day, and calls a position paying only at breakeven +10 %, so the two lists differ by design.
That day
settled positions16all with a result
won / lost8 / 8positions won / lost
avg odds2.10mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+0.73units, one a position
ROI, the day+4.6%profit ÷ staked
One flat unit per cell and fixture, priced at each book's last pre-kickoff offer. EV and margin use the walk-forward model number for that line.
Showing 11 of 11 matches
A match stays visible when at least one position matches the selected filters.
Real ValladolidvCórdobaLaLiga 22 positions · 1 of 2 won · +0.30 units
Shots · match total · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.31 avg → +1.30 · ROI +130.5%- Betliveover 27.52.80+44.8%13.8%won +1.80first captured 2.80 → last pre-kickoff 2.80
- Superbetover 27.52.32+20.0%9.3%won +1.32first captured 2.25 → last pre-kickoff 2.32
- Liderbetover 27.52.10+8.6%14.3%won +1.10first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Crocobetover 25.52.00+29.9%14.5%won +1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Shots · home team · over
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.93 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 13.52.10+11.5%14.3%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Superbetover 13.51.88−0.2%8.1%lost −1.00first captured 1.78 → last pre-kickoff 1.88
- Crocobetover 12.51.80+13.5%14.4%lost −1.00first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Lithuaniav
AzerbaijanUEFA Nations League2 positions · 1 of 2 won · −0.08 units
Shots · home team · over
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.18 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 12.52.20+11.4%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
- Liderbetover 12.52.20+11.4%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
- Betliveover 12.52.15+8.8%13.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.15 → last pre-kickoff 2.15
Throw-ins · home team · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.92 avg → +0.92 · ROI +91.7%- Liderbetover 21.52.00+7.7%12.5%won +1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Crocobetover 21.51.90+2.3%11.5%won +0.90first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
- Betliveover 21.51.85−0.4%11.2%won +0.85first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
MallorcavAlmeríaLaLiga 22 positions · 1 of 2 won · −0.12 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.97 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveunder 26.52.05+11.5%13.3%lost −1.00first captured 2.05 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
- Liderbetunder 26.52.00+8.8%14.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Crocobetunder 26.51.85+0.7%14.7%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Shots · match total · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.88 avg → +0.88 · ROI +87.5%- Betliveover 25.51.95+7.5%13.8%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Crocobetover 25.51.80−0.8%14.4%won +0.80first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Serbiav
NetherlandsUEFA Nations League1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.34 units
Fouls · match total · under
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.34 avg → +1.34 · ROI +133.8%- Liderbetunder 21.52.75+49.4%12.1%won +1.75first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.75
- Crocobetunder 21.52.45+33.1%12.2%won +1.45first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Betliveunder 21.52.25+22.2%12.0%won +1.25first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.25
- Superbetunder 23.51.90+27.4%8.2%won +0.90first captured 1.92 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Austriav
KosovoUEFA Nations League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Shots · home team · over
0 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 14.51.90+4.0%11.5%lost −1.00first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Gibraltarv
AndorraUEFA Nations League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Throw-ins · home team · over
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.18 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 24.52.25+41.0%12.0%lost −1.00first captured 2.55 → last pre-kickoff 2.25
- Liderbetover 23.52.20+51.3%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
- Crocobetover 24.52.10+31.6%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
EibarvLas PalmasLaLiga 22 positions · 2 of 2 won · +2.15 units
Shots · match total · over
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.20 avg → +1.20 · ROI +120.0%- Betliveover 25.52.45+36.7%13.8%won +1.45first captured 2.95 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Crocobetover 23.51.95+34.9%13.8%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Shots · home team · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 1.95 avg → +0.95 · ROI +95.0%- Crocobetover 12.51.95+14.7%13.8%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Burgos Club de FútbolvCD EldenseLaLiga 21 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Shots · match total · over
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 1.90 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Betliveover 24.51.95+6.1%13.8%lost −1.00first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Crocobetover 24.51.85+0.7%14.7%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Norwayv
PortugalUEFA Nations League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
1 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.32 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetunder 20.52.00+24.1%12.5%won +1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Liderbetunder 19.52.55+40.3%12.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.55 → last pre-kickoff 2.55
- Betliveunder 19.52.45+34.8%12.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Superbetunder 19.52.27+24.9%7.7%lost −1.00first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 2.27
Germanyv
GreeceUEFA Nations League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
1 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.56 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetunder 23.52.07+36.2%8.2%won +1.07first captured 2.05 → last pre-kickoff 2.07
- Crocobetunder 21.52.95+56.3%12.0%lost −1.00first captured 2.75 → last pre-kickoff 2.95
- Liderbetunder 21.52.65+40.4%12.4%lost −1.00first captured 2.80 → last pre-kickoff 2.65
- Betliveunder 21.52.55+35.1%12.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.55 → last pre-kickoff 2.55
Real OviedovSporting GijónLaLiga 22 positions · 2 of 2 won · +2.15 units
Fouls · match total · under
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.15 avg → +1.15 · ROI +115.0%- Liderbetunder 26.52.20+17.4%12.1%won +1.20first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
- Crocobetunder 26.52.10+12.1%14.3%won +1.10first captured 1.55 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
Shots · match total · over
1 of 1 books won · 1 unit @ 2.00 avg → +1.00 · ROI +100.0%- Crocobetover 23.52.00+3.8%14.5%won +1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
Board record · all time
settled positions1,1349 October cells through 9 October; daily snapshots after
won / lost602 / 532positions won / lost
avg odds2.14mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+128.29units, one a position
measured ROI+11.3%1,134 settled positions in the board record · the calculator's r
How to read a card
- A card is a match, and it opens. The header carries the competition's badge and both crests — a national team shows its flag where a club wears a crest — beside the match's own record, so a closed board reads as a list of matches. Open one for every position on it and every book pricing it. Upcoming matches on StatsGem VIP Picks without a subscription show counts only: completed historical reads remain open, while upcoming prices and positions require access.
- A position is one market opinion — shots over the match total, corners under the away team, and so on. A match appears once per position.
- Every book that prices it is listed, each with its own line. Books sit on different rungs of the same ladder, so the line beside a book is the one that book is actually quoting. A book quoting more than one rung opens: its name is the control, and the whole ladder is inside — every threshold that book prices, each with its own price, EV, margin and verdict, and the rung the row above is showing marked. A book with a single price has nothing to open and stays flat.
- Green pays, red does not. A price is green while the model's number times that price is still above one; it turns red when the book shortens, when the price stops paying for the model's number, or when the model changes its mind. Historical rows show the last pre-kickoff offer; on a played day the row also shows the result at that line.
- EV is the model's claim, margin is the book's cut. EV is the model's probability times the price minus one — what a unit at that price is expected to return by the model's numbers. Margin is the book's overround on the market the price came from, because the same EV is a different offer at a 2 % cut and at a 9 % one.
- The historical replay starts on 30 July. Through 9 October, results use the cells on that day's StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks boards, applied to earlier fixtures; this does not claim those cells were published on each past date. From 10 October onward, completed results follow each date's benchmark snapshot. Rows reconstructed after kickoff remain included without a separate label. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks
Board membership follows one daily gate pipeline. A cell needs at least 30 settled matches, positive full-record return, a positive newest 30 %, and positive own-match returns over 14 and 30 days. Once every gate clears,StatsGem VIP Picks takes cells at +10 % or better; StatsGem Free Picks takes positive cells below +10 %. Candidates and failing cells remain visible on Benchmarks but are not on either board. The 9 October board cells are applied to results from 30 July through 9 October. Later completed results use the benchmark snapshot for their date. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
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