Predictions
The 9 October board's current cells are replayed over results from 30 July through 9 October. Later results use each publication day's benchmark snapshot. Cards show where badagbet's walk-forward number disagrees with bookmaker prices. One card per match, one row per position, with the latest current offer or last pre-kickoff price — green while it pays, red once it does not.
Fri, 25 Sept 2026 · 13 positions on 8 matches across 6 bookmakers
How this board differs from Telegram
This board is one kickoff day (UTC−6), and green means the model still has any edge at a book's own line. The StatsGem VIP Picks bot answers /picks for the next 7 days, one section per kickoff day, and calls a position paying only at breakeven +10 %, so the two lists differ by design.
That day
settled positions13all with a result
won / lost5 / 8positions won / lost
avg odds2.23mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit−1.70units, one a position
ROI, the day−13.1%profit ÷ staked
One flat unit per cell and fixture, priced at each book's last pre-kickoff offer. EV and margin use the walk-forward model number for that line.
Showing 8 of 8 matches
A match stays visible when at least one position matches the selected filters.
Australiav
BrazilInternational Friendly Games1 position · 1 of 1 won · +1.20 units
Fouls · match total · under
2 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.20 avg → +1.20 · ROI +120.0%- Betliveunder 21.52.45+34.1%13.8%won +1.45first captured 2.45 → last pre-kickoff 2.45
- Crocobetunder 22.51.95+18.9%13.8%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Georgiav
Northern IrelandUEFA Nations League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 1.97 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetunder 25.52.05+4.9%11.3%lost −1.00first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
- Betliveunder 25.51.95−0.3%11.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
- Crocobetunder 25.51.90−2.8%11.5%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Girona FCvAlbacete BalompiéLaLiga 22 positions · 2 of 2 won · +2.73 units
Shots · match total · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.54 avg → +1.54 · ROI +154.3%- Liderbetover 28.52.90+49.9%12.0%won +1.90first captured 3.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.90
- Betliveover 28.52.80+44.8%13.8%won +1.80first captured 2.80 → last pre-kickoff 2.80
- Superbetover 28.52.52+30.3%9.6%won +1.52first captured 2.15 → last pre-kickoff 2.52
- Crocobetover 26.51.95+26.1%13.8%won +0.95first captured 1.95 → last pre-kickoff 1.95
Shots · home team · over
4 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.19 avg → +1.19 · ROI +119.2%- Betliveover 16.52.35+48.6%14.0%won +1.35first captured 2.35 → last pre-kickoff 2.35
- Liderbetover 16.52.30+45.5%12.4%won +1.30first captured 2.36 → last pre-kickoff 2.30
- Crocobetover 16.52.20+39.2%14.4%won +1.20first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
- Superbetover 16.51.92+21.4%7.6%won +0.92first captured 1.66 → last pre-kickoff 1.92
Polandv
Bosnia & HerzegovinaUEFA Nations League2 positions · 0 of 2 won · −2.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.01 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetunder 24.52.30+15.7%8.0%lost −1.00first captured 1.92 → last pre-kickoff 2.30
- Crocobetunder 24.52.00+0.6%12.5%lost −1.00first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Betliveunder 24.51.90−4.5%11.5%lost −1.00first captured 1.90 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
- Liderbetunder 24.51.85−7.0%12.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.85 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
Shots · home team · over
0 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 1.93 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 15.52.10+12.1%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Betliveover 15.52.00+6.8%12.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.00
- Superbetover 15.51.88+0.3%7.8%lost −1.00first captured 1.92 → last pre-kickoff 1.88
- Kambiover 15.51.85−1.3%13.9%lost −1.00first captured 1.70 → last pre-kickoff 1.85
- Liderbetover 14.51.80+11.8%12.7%lost −1.00first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 1.80
Italyv
BelgiumUEFA Nations League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.13 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetunder 22.52.25+23.2%7.7%lost −1.00first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.25
- Crocobetunder 22.52.10+14.9%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Liderbetunder 22.52.10+14.9%12.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Betliveunder 22.52.05+12.2%13.3%lost −1.00first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
Swedenv
RomaniaUEFA Nations League3 positions · 0 of 3 won · −3.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 2 books won · 1 unit @ 2.30 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetunder 22.52.35+28.3%11.5%lost −1.00first captured 1.80 → last pre-kickoff 2.35
- Superbetunder 22.52.25+22.8%7.7%lost −1.00first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.25
Shots · match total · over
0 of 5 books won · 1 unit @ 2.30 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Superbetover 26.52.55+28.1%8.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.32 → last pre-kickoff 2.55
- Liderbetover 26.52.40+20.5%13.1%lost −1.00first captured 2.40 → last pre-kickoff 2.40
- Betliveover 26.52.35+18.0%12.0%lost −1.00first captured 2.35 → last pre-kickoff 2.35
- Crocobetover 26.52.30+15.5%12.4%lost −1.00first captured 2.30 → last pre-kickoff 2.30
- Kambiover 26.51.88−5.6%11.0%lost −1.00first captured 2.14 → last pre-kickoff 1.88
Shots · home team · over
0 of 6 books won · 1 unit @ 2.27 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Crocobetover 16.53.10+76.3%12.3%lost −1.00first captured 3.10 → last pre-kickoff 3.10
- Betliveover 16.52.75+56.4%11.5%lost −1.00first captured 2.75 → last pre-kickoff 2.75
- Superbetover 15.52.05+33.3%7.6%lost −1.00first captured 2.00 → last pre-kickoff 2.05
- Kambiover 16.51.92+9.2%13.4%lost −1.00first captured 2.06 → last pre-kickoff 1.92
- Bet365over 15.51.91+24.2%7.9%lost −1.00first captured 2.25 → last pre-kickoff 1.91
- Liderbetover 14.51.90+38.3%13.2%lost −1.00first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Türkiyev
FranceUEFA Nations League1 position · 0 of 1 won · −1.00 units
Fouls · match total · under
0 of 4 books won · 1 unit @ 2.83 avg → −1.00 · ROI −100.0%- Liderbetunder 19.53.45+74.9%12.3%lost −1.00first captured 3.45 → last pre-kickoff 3.45
- Crocobetunder 19.53.30+67.3%12.3%lost −1.00first captured 3.30 → last pre-kickoff 3.30
- Betliveunder 20.52.65+53.1%11.8%lost −1.00first captured 2.55 → last pre-kickoff 2.65
- Superbetunder 22.51.92+35.6%8.3%lost −1.00first captured 1.92 → last pre-kickoff 1.92
Montenegrov
CyprusUEFA Nations League2 positions · 2 of 2 won · +2.37 units
Fouls · match total · under
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.07 avg → +1.07 · ROI +106.7%- Crocobetunder 27.52.20+13.4%12.1%won +1.20first captured 2.20 → last pre-kickoff 2.20
- Betliveunder 27.52.10+8.2%12.1%won +1.10first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
- Liderbetunder 27.51.90−2.1%13.2%won +0.90first captured 2.25 → last pre-kickoff 1.90
Shots · home team · over
3 of 3 books won · 1 unit @ 2.30 avg → +1.30 · ROI +130.0%- Betliveover 14.52.50+36.7%11.9%won +1.50first captured 2.50 → last pre-kickoff 2.50
- Crocobetover 14.52.30+25.8%12.4%won +1.30first captured 2.65 → last pre-kickoff 2.30
- Liderbetover 14.52.10+14.9%12.1%won +1.10first captured 2.10 → last pre-kickoff 2.10
Board record · all time
settled positions1,1349 October cells through 9 October; daily snapshots after
won / lost602 / 532positions won / lost
avg odds2.14mean last pre-kickoff odds
profit+128.29units, one a position
measured ROI+11.3%1,134 settled positions in the board record · the calculator's r
How to read a card
- A card is a match, and it opens. The header carries the competition's badge and both crests — a national team shows its flag where a club wears a crest — beside the match's own record, so a closed board reads as a list of matches. Open one for every position on it and every book pricing it. Upcoming matches on StatsGem VIP Picks without a subscription show counts only: completed historical reads remain open, while upcoming prices and positions require access.
- A position is one market opinion — shots over the match total, corners under the away team, and so on. A match appears once per position.
- Every book that prices it is listed, each with its own line. Books sit on different rungs of the same ladder, so the line beside a book is the one that book is actually quoting. A book quoting more than one rung opens: its name is the control, and the whole ladder is inside — every threshold that book prices, each with its own price, EV, margin and verdict, and the rung the row above is showing marked. A book with a single price has nothing to open and stays flat.
- Green pays, red does not. A price is green while the model's number times that price is still above one; it turns red when the book shortens, when the price stops paying for the model's number, or when the model changes its mind. Historical rows show the last pre-kickoff offer; on a played day the row also shows the result at that line.
- EV is the model's claim, margin is the book's cut. EV is the model's probability times the price minus one — what a unit at that price is expected to return by the model's numbers. Margin is the book's overround on the market the price came from, because the same EV is a different offer at a 2 % cut and at a 9 % one.
- The historical replay starts on 30 July. Through 9 October, results use the cells on that day's StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks boards, applied to earlier fixtures; this does not claim those cells were published on each past date. From 10 October onward, completed results follow each date's benchmark snapshot. Rows reconstructed after kickoff remain included without a separate label. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
StatsGem Free Picks and StatsGem VIP Picks
Board membership follows one daily gate pipeline. A cell needs at least 30 settled matches, positive full-record return, a positive newest 30 %, and positive own-match returns over 14 and 30 days. Once every gate clears,StatsGem VIP Picks takes cells at +10 % or better; StatsGem Free Picks takes positive cells below +10 %. Candidates and failing cells remain visible on Benchmarks but are not on either board. The 9 October board cells are applied to results from 30 July through 9 October. Later completed results use the benchmark snapshot for their date. Upcoming positions continue to use the current publishing rule.
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